To The Moon

A review of the A-share vaccine sector shows that as of December 28, 2025, the vaccine index rose by 9%, underperforming the broader market by 10 percentage points, indicating overall weak sector performance. The investment logic for the vaccine sector in 2026 centers on three key themes: "pipeline delivery + technological breakthroughs + valuation recovery," advising investors to avoid varieties with significant internal competition, such as bivalent HPV vaccines and traditional rabies vaccines. Core focus areas include vaccine varieties with high technological barriers, multi-valent combinations, potential for BD collaboration, and superior competitive landscapes, such as RSV vaccines. Key views on specific companies are as follows: CanSinoBIO's DTcP-Hib-MCV4 combination vaccine and an inhaled tuberculosis vaccine (Adenovirus Type 5 Vector) are in Phase I clinical trials; its quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine was shipped to Indonesia this September, marking another exported vaccine product following its COVID-19 vaccine. CanSinoBIO's PCV13i has now gained access in over half of China's provinces and municipalities and officially began vaccinations in October. Several of CanSinoBIO's vaccines have entered the commercial stage, with New Drug Applications (NDA) submitted for the tetanus toxoid adsorbed vaccine (TT), the acellular DTP vaccine for infants (DTcP), and the age expansion application for the MCV4 vaccine for children aged 4-6; the Tdap vaccine for adolescents and adults is preparing for NDA submission. Furthermore, the company is steadily advancing the R&D of several blockbuster products with core competitiveness and broad market prospects, such as the DTcP-Hib-MCV4 combination vaccine and the inhaled tuberculosis vaccine (Adenovirus Type 5 Vector), which are in Phase I clinical trials and have completed enrollment of the first subjects. For AIM Vaccine: PCV13, PPSV23, next-generation serum-free rabies vaccine, and human diploid cell rabies vaccine are in the final stages before market launch. AIM Vaccine has a total of 20 vaccines in development, with 15 varieties having obtained 23 clinical trial approvals. Among them, the PCV13 vaccine has submitted a market registration application to the NMPA and completed on-site verification; the next-generation serum-free rabies vaccine has submitted a market registration application; PPSV23 has completed Phase III clinical serum testing and is about to proceed to statistical unblinding; the next-generation process high-potency human diploid cell rabies vaccine is conducting Phase III clinical trials; MCV4 has completed full vaccination of all subjects in Phase II clinical trials; the globally innovative bivalent HFMD vaccine (EV71-CA16, human diploid cell) has been approved to initiate Phase I clinical trials; the quadrivalent MDCK cell influenza virus vaccine, tetanus toxoid adsorbed vaccine, and Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine have received clinical trial approval from the Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE) of the NMPA; the RSV vaccine and mRNA shingles vaccine have received clinical trial approval in both China and the US; PCV20 has submitted a clinical trial application to the NMPA. For Clover Biopharmaceuticals: its blockbuster respiratory combination vaccine (RSV-hMPV-PIV3) has garnered global attention. Clover Biopharmaceuticals' key product, the respiratory combination vaccine (RSV-hMPV-PIV3), and a study on repeated RSV vaccination in the elderly population have both yielded positive Phase I clinical data; this vaccine is expected to advance to Phase II clinical trials in the first half of 2026. This vaccine is expected to enable effective revaccination in populations who have already received a first dose of an RSV vaccine, rebuilding immune protection efficacy and broadening the protection scope, while simultaneously addressing two major unmet global clinical needs: the inability to effectively prevent respiratory diseases caused by RSV-like structured viruses, and the suboptimal immune boosting effect of revaccination after the protective efficacy of an initial RSV vaccine wanes. Stocks recommended for attention in the Hong Kong market include: CanSinoBIO, Clover Biopharmaceuticals -B, and AIM Vaccine, among others. Risk warnings include: product clinical progress falling short of expectations; product sales underperforming expectations; intensifying industry competition; and policy risks.