The BlackRock Institute published an article stating that 2025 is a year of breakthroughs in multiple fields, with some areas, such as trade policy, facing constraints, while others, like AI investment and financial innovation, have achieved new breakthroughs. The BlackRock Institute believes that the resilience of the U.S. economy is partly due to the first insight it has observed: unchangeable economic laws, such as the inability to rapidly reconfigure supply chains, mean the world cannot change quickly. Despite multiple severe market volatilities this year, the institution believes these economic laws will prevent tariff policies and other measures that fueled uncertainty in the first half of last year from reaching extremes. The market has validated this view; after a sharp plunge in April last year, U.S. stocks staged a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 index rising 16% in 2025.
The second insight—that the influence of disruptive trends has surpassed traditional macroeconomic factors—helps cut through market noise and sustain risk appetite based on the powerful momentum of the AI theme, a judgment also confirmed by the market. Macroeconomic anchors that have guided investors for decades, such as stable inflation and fiscal discipline, have weakened. Instead, a few disruptive trends are driving structural transformations, with AI emerging as the dominant force. In this environment, there is no such thing as a "neutral" portfolio allocation; the BlackRock Institute believes investors should focus more on consciously taking risks, meaning adopting more active investment strategies rather than indiscriminately diversifying risk.
Identifying the professional capabilities of investment managers will become crucial; these managers must be able to uncover winners as the AI dividend permeates various sectors of the economy, while also seizing opportunities in private markets, hedge funds, and other areas with unique sources of return. Furthermore, the BlackRock Institute believes that disruptive trends shaping the future of the financial system, such as the application of stablecoins and the rise of asset tokenization, are evolving faster than expected, which constitutes the third insight. The 2025 "Genius Act" established the first U.S. regulatory framework for payment stablecoins (i.e., digital tokens pegged to fiat currency and backed by liquid reserve assets).
Although the act prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest, a "marketing rewards" clause allows for incentives that resemble yield. This could make stablecoins competitive with bank deposits and money market funds, potentially influencing how banks provide credit and the existing global payment system. If dollar-pegged stablecoins are widely adopted as local currency substitutes in emerging markets, it could not only consolidate the dollar's status as a reserve currency but also potentially alleviate current negative market sentiment and allocation towards the dollar. Asset tokenization, by recording asset ownership on a digital ledger, enables instant settlement and holds the potential to broaden investment access to illiquid private market asset classes.
