Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.

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Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.

Barrons2021-09-09

A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus. The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...

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Uasbau
·2021-09-10
Good infos,
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VenkatBadam
·2021-09-09
. ABC l
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TeslaLegend
·2021-09-09
Please like and comment!
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2
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james_l
·2021-09-09
Its good to have atleast 5% market correction every now and then. We dont have one this year yet.
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- Desmond669:
  Yes
  2021-09-09
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KWHChye
·2021-09-09
Oh no
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2
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AliPharma
·2021-09-09
ok
Reply
3
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- KWHChye:
  Yup
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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Chrissssy
·2021-09-09
Like pleaseeeee
Reply
9
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- erichosk:
  done
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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- superdog:
  Like pls
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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- Ryankz:
  ok
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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peanutz
·2021-09-09
Legit other stocks sank too ..
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4
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- Ly99:
  Ok
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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- Whateverqw:
  Ok
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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calebxiong
·2021-09-09
Pls like. I will do the same
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11
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- superdog:
  Like pls
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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- calebxiong:
  ok
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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SquareGuy
·2021-09-09
Like
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9
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- Tigal80:
  yes
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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Victorhc88
·2021-09-09
Like pls
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6
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- Grest:
  Done
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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zeeling
·2021-09-09
Great
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4
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LeviStrauss
·2021-09-09
?
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4
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Ameliakoh
·2021-09-09
Stock games are at your own disposal and do your own research before buying ?
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- Wins888:
  nice
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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- zeeling:
  Great
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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6a239a89
·2021-09-09
[Strong]
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2
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- OldCat:
  apes together strong
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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K3nia
·2021-09-09
Hello
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3
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- JessHang:
  ?
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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- K3nia:
  Good afternoon
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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- TC93:
  Cool
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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jktrade
·2021-09-09
If they are not greedy, you buy
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- jktrade:
  and buy within one's means
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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- Veldora:
  Buy when they fear. Not a bad news actually
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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xremy
·2021-09-09
Don't worry be Happy.. ?
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DragonKC
·2021-09-09
One day fall caused strategists on panic call. Steady Steady. Steady. How to become strategists.?
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- Pflanze:
  fall? thats not a fall. not even a correction
  2021-09-09
  Reply
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- ZAnne:
  ok
  2021-09-09
  Reply
  Report
LEEPK
·2021-09-09
Ok
Reply
3
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Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","article_id":"1152602866","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1601382232898","name":"Barrons"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":883854026,"gmtCreate":1631234421765,"gmtModify":1676530502762,"author":{"id":"3581724772671504","authorId":"3581724772671504","name":"Uasbau","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cdf409f2239595269918513a5faac9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good infos,","listText":"Good infos,","text":"Good infos,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883854026","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":883004332,"gmtCreate":1631185580326,"gmtModify":1676530490371,"author":{"id":"4092024582449880","authorId":"4092024582449880","name":"VenkatBadam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":". ABC l","listText":". ABC l","text":". ABC l","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883004332","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889440680,"gmtCreate":1631173773440,"gmtModify":1676530486898,"author":{"id":"3572489627147183","authorId":"3572489627147183","name":"TeslaLegend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180ad6f06095bcbf2b6594d26c494752","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84859c65fc2d7681e28f6b8e9b0535a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Please like and comment!","listText":"Please like and comment!","text":"Please like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889440680","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889429245,"gmtCreate":1631171845287,"gmtModify":1676530486372,"author":{"id":"3563436875655076","authorId":"3563436875655076","name":"james_l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7960ea5c640db331ff2de0da32f6a611","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Its good to have atleast 5% market correction every now and then. We dont have one this year yet.","listText":"Its good to have atleast 5% market correction every now and then. We dont have one this year yet.","text":"Its good to have atleast 5% market correction every now and then. We dont have one this year yet.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889429245","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5803760,"gmtCreate":1631172283397,"gmtModify":1663233605032,"authorId":3562118563279867,"author":{"id":3562118563279867,"authorId":3562118563279867,"name":"Desmond669","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2484115c94d3471cb46f20ea7598b4a","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.05.31","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889429245,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889420983,"gmtCreate":1631171617842,"gmtModify":1676530486325,"author":{"id":"3559643628960690","authorId":"3559643628960690","name":"KWHChye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff28c38f154930713b0a64f6389191d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Oh no&nbsp;","listText":"Oh no&nbsp;","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889420983","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889484928,"gmtCreate":1631169880864,"gmtModify":1676530486046,"author":{"id":"3586596744781365","authorId":"3586596744781365","name":"AliPharma","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ae50feeb2edce44d991e8e753fb37e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889484928","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5803702,"gmtCreate":1631171625294,"gmtModify":1663233604948,"authorId":3559643628960690,"author":{"id":3559643628960690,"authorId":3559643628960690,"name":"KWHChye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff28c38f154930713b0a64f6389191d8","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":"93.09%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889484928,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yup","text":"Yup","html":"Yup"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889415762,"gmtCreate":1631168578156,"gmtModify":1676530485736,"author":{"id":"3581992421704233","authorId":"3581992421704233","name":"Chrissssy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670519b0df7f01f6802e6a220a6fc578","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like pleaseeeee","listText":"Like pleaseeeee","text":"Like pleaseeeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889415762","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5803435,"gmtCreate":1631168828647,"gmtModify":1663233606948,"authorId":3575433293784452,"author":{"id":3575433293784452,"authorId":3575433293784452,"name":"erichosk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-1","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Debut Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.07.24","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889415762,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>done</u>","text":"<u>done</u>","html":"<u>done</u>"},{"id":5803404,"gmtCreate":1631168626093,"gmtModify":1663233604129,"authorId":3582162167824089,"author":{"id":3582162167824089,"authorId":3582162167824089,"name":"superdog","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8e062396dbbe52dff9355f0ef3d100e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889415762,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","html":"Like pls"},{"id":5803479,"gmtCreate":1631169252819,"gmtModify":1663233603931,"authorId":3576217057875179,"author":{"id":3576217057875179,"authorId":3576217057875179,"name":"Ryankz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd719e6727bdaf41bc1a73166093ac0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889415762,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889416792,"gmtCreate":1631168406516,"gmtModify":1676530485688,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Legit other stocks sank too ..","listText":"Legit other stocks sank too ..","text":"Legit other stocks sank too ..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889416792","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5803726,"gmtCreate":1631171982484,"gmtModify":1663233604744,"authorId":3582633189757328,"author":{"id":3582633189757328,"authorId":3582633189757328,"name":"Ly99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad04aa6a4345f682b5fa75c514b9b871","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889416792,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5803520,"gmtCreate":1631169749416,"gmtModify":1663233603825,"authorId":3582029110525423,"author":{"id":3582029110525423,"authorId":3582029110525423,"name":"Whateverqw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b82b69926257ee0d05417f42b935ac0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889416792,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889416691,"gmtCreate":1631168342913,"gmtModify":1676530485680,"author":{"id":"3573369466096628","authorId":"3573369466096628","name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Pls like. I will do the same","listText":"Pls like. I will do the same","text":"Pls like. I will do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889416691","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5803405,"gmtCreate":1631168638022,"gmtModify":1663233603543,"authorId":3582162167824089,"author":{"id":3582162167824089,"authorId":3582162167824089,"name":"superdog","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8e062396dbbe52dff9355f0ef3d100e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889416691,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","html":"Like pls"},{"id":5804146,"gmtCreate":1631175208634,"gmtModify":1634804519981,"authorId":3573369466096628,"author":{"id":3573369466096628,"authorId":3573369466096628,"name":"calebxiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d48582a3126a51d85cbec3a72f9923","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889416691,"type":1,"supId":5803405,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889435113,"gmtCreate":1631167369432,"gmtModify":1676530485491,"author":{"id":"3561259559295872","authorId":"3561259559295872","name":"SquareGuy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4aa86e9311a7ff0643a2e9f93645a8c","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889435113","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5803356,"gmtCreate":1631168162226,"gmtModify":1663233602037,"authorId":3575390834397772,"author":{"id":3575390834397772,"authorId":3575390834397772,"name":"Tigal80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f76710483a16eae0642572ffa5f1be","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.06%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889435113,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889495811,"gmtCreate":1631166239133,"gmtModify":1676530485258,"author":{"id":"3582248650466523","authorId":"3582248650466523","name":"Victorhc88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72a1d9498132424b1eddb4db3c77265","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889495811","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5803273,"gmtCreate":1631167315948,"gmtModify":1663233603938,"authorId":3581503320247876,"author":{"id":3581503320247876,"authorId":3581503320247876,"name":"Grest","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889495811,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889496467,"gmtCreate":1631166024259,"gmtModify":1676530485064,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889496467","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889496207,"gmtCreate":1631166019709,"gmtModify":1676530485057,"author":{"id":"3576893887863470","authorId":"3576893887863470","name":"LeviStrauss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ee679917ab40e40a706e287fc3464da","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889496207","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889496896,"gmtCreate":1631166007315,"gmtModify":1676530485049,"author":{"id":"3574754838536636","authorId":"3574754838536636","name":"Ameliakoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a747ab791603fb0a649736b10ec7454","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Stock games are at your own disposal and do your own research before buying ?","listText":"Stock games are at your own disposal and do your own research before buying ?","text":"Stock games are at your own disposal and do your own research before buying ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889496896","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5803481,"gmtCreate":1631169272463,"gmtModify":1663233603844,"authorId":3573623994106312,"author":{"id":3573623994106312,"authorId":3573623994106312,"name":"Wins888","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889496896,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>nice</u>","text":"<u>nice</u>","html":"<u>nice</u>"},{"id":5803128,"gmtCreate":1631166015851,"gmtModify":1663233602337,"authorId":3578196134540225,"author":{"id":3578196134540225,"authorId":3578196134540225,"name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.23","exceedPercentage":"60.71%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889496896,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Great","text":"Great","html":"Great"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889401938,"gmtCreate":1631164722224,"gmtModify":1676530484779,"author":{"id":"3581896299735166","authorId":"3581896299735166","name":"6a239a89","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889401938","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5803022,"gmtCreate":1631165207700,"gmtModify":1663233602129,"authorId":3573733606753390,"author":{"id":3573733606753390,"authorId":3573733606753390,"name":"OldCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889401938,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"apes together <u>strong</u>","text":"apes together <u>strong</u>","html":"apes together <u>strong</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889576303,"gmtCreate":1631163727902,"gmtModify":1676530484602,"author":{"id":"3586502447028517","authorId":"3586502447028517","name":"K3nia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889576303","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5802971,"gmtCreate":1631164651968,"gmtModify":1663233601958,"authorId":4088394474156640,"author":{"id":4088394474156640,"authorId":4088394474156640,"name":"JessHang","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889576303,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"?","text":"?","html":"?"},{"id":5802871,"gmtCreate":1631163739017,"gmtModify":1663233599730,"authorId":3586502447028517,"author":{"id":3586502447028517,"authorId":3586502447028517,"name":"K3nia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889576303,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good afternoon","text":"Good afternoon","html":"Good afternoon"},{"id":5802875,"gmtCreate":1631163759371,"gmtModify":1663233598825,"authorId":3582232015540876,"author":{"id":3582232015540876,"authorId":3582232015540876,"name":"TC93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a18b473e3eeffa8d209febc34817e5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889576303,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Cool","text":"Cool","html":"Cool"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889576025,"gmtCreate":1631163639467,"gmtModify":1676530484594,"author":{"id":"4087905137947130","authorId":"4087905137947130","name":"jktrade","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"If they are not greedy, you buy","listText":"If they are not greedy, you buy","text":"If they are not greedy, you buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889576025","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5803740,"gmtCreate":1631172114179,"gmtModify":1663233603543,"authorId":4087905137947130,"author":{"id":4087905137947130,"authorId":4087905137947130,"name":"jktrade","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889576025,"type":1,"supId":5803284,"prevId":0,"content":"and buy within one's <u>means</u>","text":"and buy within one's <u>means</u>","html":"and buy within one's <u>means</u>"},{"id":5803284,"gmtCreate":1631167484830,"gmtModify":1663233601346,"authorId":3580473686930895,"author":{"id":3580473686930895,"authorId":3580473686930895,"name":"Veldora","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c60768e017f3418615cd7dea3a291ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889576025,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Buy when they fear. Not a bad news actually ","text":"Buy when they fear. Not a bad news actually ","html":"Buy when they fear. Not a bad news actually "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889570455,"gmtCreate":1631163249677,"gmtModify":1676530484481,"author":{"id":"4091425725265930","authorId":"4091425725265930","name":"xremy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eed128399f7a5afff5ef683e5991f030","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Don't worry be Happy.. ?&nbsp;","listText":"Don't worry be Happy.. ?&nbsp;","text":"Don't worry be Happy.. ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889570455","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889546979,"gmtCreate":1631162581491,"gmtModify":1676530484308,"author":{"id":"3577178099298017","authorId":"3577178099298017","name":"DragonKC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90c63c67a4e5f91e9dc0159f5b853ab","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"One day fall caused strategists on&nbsp;panic call.&nbsp; Steady Steady. Steady. How to become strategists.?&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"One day fall caused strategists on&nbsp;panic call.&nbsp; Steady Steady. Steady. How to become strategists.?&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"One day fall caused strategists on panic call. Steady Steady. Steady. How to become strategists.?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889546979","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5802860,"gmtCreate":1631163623937,"gmtModify":1663233599841,"authorId":3570037604440960,"author":{"id":3570037604440960,"authorId":3570037604440960,"name":"Pflanze","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e55f7d9e1df6e15adabc7185268e2f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889546979,"type":1,"supId":5802750,"prevId":0,"content":"fall? thats not a fall. not even a correction","text":"fall? thats not a fall. not even a correction","html":"fall? thats not a fall. not even a correction"},{"id":5802750,"gmtCreate":1631162926587,"gmtModify":1634804628570,"authorId":3579068755971903,"author":{"id":3579068755971903,"authorId":3579068755971903,"name":"ZAnne","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2498160956622b66e7c10ee50c596ba4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889546979,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889541832,"gmtCreate":1631162387626,"gmtModify":1676530484254,"author":{"id":"3561626499477725","authorId":"3561626499477725","name":"LEEPK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797bbc4f6e8194fe6be369618bc544f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889541832","repostId":1152602866,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":336,"commentSize":35,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}