Taper时间表来了？瑞银：最有可能在12月启动

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Taper时间表来了？瑞银：最有可能在12月启动

华尔街见闻2021-08-16

作者：于旭东美国的缩减购债计划（taper）正在越来越快地提上日程。此前有分析人士指出，如果经济持续复苏，美联储官员将在大约3个月内开启taper，其中一些官员还在推动在明年年中时结束taper的计划。在最近的一些采访和官方声明中，一些人主张让美联储制定一个时间表，其中包括taper和加息的具体实施计划。瑞银认为，美联储最有可能在12月taper，并将在12个月内完成taper路径。此外...

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xxmm332244
·2021-08-17
他來了[捂臉] [捂臉] [捂臉]
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神话者
·2021-08-17
[微笑]
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Kenny52041
·2021-08-17
閱
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龙腾虎跃168
·2021-08-17
?
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- Eda95:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-17
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Youn7276
·2021-08-17
閱！
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LNM888
·2021-08-16
Ok
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- 瀚妈:
  ok
  2021-08-17
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- Eda95:
  [微笑]
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- ZhuYH:
  可以
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UBS Group AG: Most likely to launch in December","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c1da08a7d792ae9dcb09950d0172cb","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：于旭东\n美国的缩减购债计划（taper）正在越来越快地提上日程。\n此前有分析人士指出，如果经济持续复苏，美联储官员将在大约3个月内开启taper，其中一些官员还在推动在明年年中时结束taper的计划。\n在最近的一些采访和官方声明中，一些人主张让美联储制定一个时间表，其中包括taper和加息的具体实施计划。\n瑞银认为，美联储最有可能在12月taper，并将在12个月内完成taper路径。此外瑞银还表示，与其猜测taper时点，不如关注taper节奏。\n通过美联储官员的讲话，也大致可以看到一个关于taper节奏的模糊画像：9月至明年初宣布开启taper，并于明年3月至年中前结束taper。\n在数量上，美联储官员们认为应该每月减少100-200亿美元的国债购买量和50-100亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券购买量。\n瑞银：12月最可能taper，最重要的是节奏\n瑞银在最近的一份报告里表示，把宣布taper拖到2022年的可能性很低，美联储最有可能在2021年12月宣布taper，但也不能排除11月宣布。\n瑞银在报告中表示，目前的关键问题不是taper日期，而是节奏和进度，他们预计美联储将在12个月内完成。目前市场面临的最大问题是——taper将会有多块。\n瑞银预计，在2021年12月至2022年11月的每次议息会议上，美联储将会减少150亿美元的资产购买。\n对于taper时间节点，美联储官员是怎么表态的\n美联储去年12月曾首次提出，将继续施行购债计划，并维持2%的平均通胀目标，直到在强劲的就业目标上取得实质性的进展。\n而在7月的议息会议上，美联储主要讨论了两个问题：何时开始削减每月800亿美元的国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券的购买量，以及taper的速度有多快。美联储将于周三公布会议纪要，这将会提供有关taper的进一步线索。\ntaper的具体实施路径细节对于金融市场非常重要，因为美联储官员曾表示，他们更愿意在将利率从接近于零的水平上调之前结束taper，因此taper和加息息息相关。\n在6月的议息会议上，18位美联储官员中有13位预计他们将在2023年底前加息；有7位预计到2022年底加息。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在7月28日的新闻发布会上表示，美联储“距离考虑加息还有一段距离。但最近强劲的非农就业报告却加强了美联储在9月21-22日的下一次议息会议上宣布taper的意图的理由。此外，鲍威尔而还表示，taper不再遥遥无期。\n芝加哥联储主席埃文斯上周在与记者的虚拟圆桌会议上表示：“预计我们将看到经济具备实质性进展的点，但可能在今年晚些时候。”\n但埃文斯没有说明他认为美联储需要多长时间停止taper。他预计到明年年底通胀率将回落至2%，这将减少取消货币刺激措施的紧迫性。他还表示，如果其他人更有信心认为通胀会持续走高，那么更快的taper可能是正确的道路。\n波士顿联储主席格伦在接受采访时表示，他预计到9月21-22日的时点将实现足够的就业增长，以满足taper的标准。他在上周接受采访时表示，今年秋天的某个时候将可能taper，这取决于德尔塔变体和其他新冠变体不会大幅削弱劳动力市场。如果经济的强劲增长继续下去，他们们将在明年年中之前完成taper。\n但也有一些美联储官员主张要有更多的耐心。美联储理事布雷纳德上个月表示，她希望在做出决定之前先看看9月份的就业数据，而该数据要到10月初才能公布，这将推迟任何taper计划，直到美联储11月2-3日的议息会议之前。\n旧金山联储主席戴利上周在接受采访时表示，她认为目前的经济状况应该支持在今年晚些时候或明年开始taper。她还说劳动力市场越来越强劲，但现在说应该如何taper还为时过早，这些事情还没有决定。\ntaper的具体数量该有多少？美联储官员这样说\n至于taper的具体数额，波士顿联储主席罗森格认为每月应该减少等量的债券购买。由于美联储购买的国债的数量是抵押贷款支持证券的两倍，这将导致抵押债券购买的结束时间是美国国债购买的一半。\n达拉斯联储主席卡普兰表示，他赞成在8个月内减少对这两种债券的购买，或者每月减少100亿美元的美国国债和50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。在他看来，这是最谨慎的做法：尽快开始，循序渐进。\n卡普兰先生表示，通过更早地减少资产购买，可能会让美联储在未来如何调整联邦基金利率方面更加灵活和更有耐心。\n布拉德表示，他希望在10月开始taper并在3月之前结束该计划，每月减少200亿美元的美国国债购买量和100亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券购买量。而美联储理事沃勒也表达了类似的观点。\n布拉德上周在接受采访时表示，他认为这样做将使美联储在决定明年晚些时候是否加息时具有更大的灵活性。并且他不想太快加息，因为这可能会非常具有破坏性。 ”\n对比2013，taper该有怎样的节奏？\n2013年之后，美联储的taper节奏非常缓慢，在10个月内才逐渐结束taper进程。\n但在当时，美联储面临的宏观环境不可同日而语。在那时，经济疲软，失业率上升，通胀很低，几乎是目前的反面。\n面对这样的环境，当时的美联储当然有谨慎的理由，毕竟在当时的美联储主席伯南克暗示taper后，美国长期国债收益率飙升，市场较为恐慌，这也让美联储和市场所震惊，最终那场恐慌被称为“taper恐慌”。\n但现在美联储相比那时其实是幸福的：经济增长迅速，失业率也比那时低很多（7月为5.4%），而通胀却高很多。尽管美联储已经开始讨论taper，但是美债收益率却迟迟上不去。\n因此，如果美联储还按照2013年的节奏行事，这次的taper速度和强度，可能会比那时快得多和强得多。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":839681616,"gmtCreate":1629156662035,"gmtModify":1676529945965,"author":{"id":"3585896966785401","authorId":"3585896966785401","authorIdStr":"3585896966785401","name":"xxmm332244","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0fc3c0aec872232bf3a880795e6d919","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585896966785401"},"htmlText":"他來了[捂臉]&nbsp;[捂臉]&nbsp;[捂臉]&nbsp;","listText":"他來了[捂臉]&nbsp;[捂臉]&nbsp;[捂臉]&nbsp;","text":"他來了[捂臉] 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