Taiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground

seekingalpha2021-03-22

Summary Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a "choke point" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to ...

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w8w8
·2021-04-13
Steamed
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KF73
·2021-04-13
[強]
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- KF73:
  What now!
  2021-04-17
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Green_Bull
·2021-04-07
Nice. Detail analyse [強]
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MyGunner
·2021-03-28
One of my favourite stock
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DreamyLucid
·2021-03-27
Waiting for China’s Semiconductor Alliance to killthis American (because of its relationship to the west) junk.
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Apple456
·2021-03-27
Good
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Troedas
·2021-03-27
Awesome ?
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SGLian
·2021-03-25
@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? ?
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DJBoy
·2021-03-25
Good
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erichosk
·2021-03-24
It looks like the author forgets to factor in intel budget of us$20b and its repercussions.
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KinKat
·2021-03-24
$Intel(INTC)$just spoiled the party [白眼]
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kcwang4982
·2021-03-24
Good
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rachelicing
·2021-03-24
Wow
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eeez
·2021-03-24
Buy the dip
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Acella
·2021-03-24
Good one!
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- Acella:
  ?
  2021-03-25
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- SSVC:
  [强][握手]
  2021-03-25
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- Acella:
  ?
  2021-03-24
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Gigachad
·2021-03-24
Good article
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Bodoh
·2021-03-24
Good time to buy?
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Angsana
·2021-03-24
Like and comment
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- Bodoh:
  Ok
  2021-03-24
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- Jher:
  Like and comment
  2021-03-24
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snjj185
·2021-03-24
Value stock
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咩咩虎
·2021-03-24
Nice
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- wjv0204:
  wa
  2021-03-24
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- 咩咩虎:
  Yes
  2021-03-24
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSM","symbol_name":"台积电","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground","article_id":"1155582622","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155582622","pubTimestamp":1616426086,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.TSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing  the most advanced high-end technology,  the largest and still rising market share, and  15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.If considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s lev","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"translate_title":"台积电：高地与低地","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.\nTSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing (1) the most advanced high-end technology, (2) the largest and still rising market share, and (3) 15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.\nTSMC’s future low-ground scenario includes (1) declining utilization rates due to fading WFH demand, (2) USD depreciations cutting into EPS, and (3) $28 billion capex cutting into future dividend payments.\nIf considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level with a moderate upside for 2021.\nThe real excitement is that TSM may reach $170 by 2022.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIt is hardly an exaggeration to call Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(NYSE:TSM)(“TSMC”) the most important company in the world. At the very least, Taiwanese call TSMC their “Protecting Taiwan God Mountain.” Considering it is practically the “choke point” of the $470 billion global semiconductor industry, TSMC is also “potentially the most single point of failure in the semiconductor value chain,”said Jan-Peter Kleinhans, Director of the technology and geopolitics project at Berlin-based think tank,Stiftung Neue Verantwortung.\nTSMC processes the most advanced foundry technology and the largest market share (54%) in a capacity-constrained industry. Obviously, both the company and the stock have benefited significantly from the limitation of capacity expansion to meet the surging demand. In 2020, TSMC’s revenue has grown 25%, while the stock went up over 90%. It appears that their stock has looked beyond the recent financial performance.\nFor that purpose, in this post, I described TSMC's future with a best-case and a worst-case scenario, respectively. TSMC's high-ground is that the structural growth drivers should remain intact if the company can retain the technological advances to create a wider chip platform to support the long-term growth of AI and HPC. Short-term demand should stay strong due to the global chip shortage and possible Intel outsourcing. However, TSMC should also expect the low-ground cases that are mainly from the decreasing utilization rate, weakening USD, higher capital expenditure diluting future dividend payments, the market-wide rising yield effect, and valuation correction. I also mapped out the path of TSMC future share price movements under each scenario. Given a higher likelihood for the high-ground case, TSMC may have a 20% upside in the next 12 months and a 70% upside in the next 24 months.\nTSMC’s High Ground\nThe best-case scenario assumes that TSMC will retain most of the following favorable factors which have contributed to TSMC’s 2020 gain:\nMost advanced high-end technology supports TSMC’s long-term structural growth.Compared amongst peers, TSMC is easily the leader in the arcane Extreme Ultra Violet (ELV) process, where it has half the world’s installed base and 60% of its production.By 2020, TSMC has delivered over 1 billion 7 nm chips, while Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)is still struggling to master its 7nm process. TSMC’s 5nm chips has lower defect rates than it did at this point in its 7nm development. It is already ramping up for 3 nm production by the end of 2022 and has begun working on the 2 nm process(see figure below). The lead in technology is the basis for the structural growth drivers which should remain intact in the next few years, with TSMC being the key enabler of this AI/HPC revolution.\n\nThe market share hits 54% and expects to rise.After reporting record revenue in 2020 based on demand for 5G smartphones, notebooks for teleworking and high-performance computers, TSMC reached a commanding 54% market share with the next competitor, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)at a distant 18%. It is expected that TSMC’s market share dominance may continue as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)remains TSMC’s major customer and will give the Taiwanese firm more business for chips made with its most advanced technology.\nShort-term demand remains robust in the logic semi space.Thanks to WFH-induced global chip shortage,full utilization nearly across all process nodes (especially tight at 7nm, 40nm and 8\") with continued 28nm utilization improvement. The better-than-expected crypto miner ASIC demand helping to fill the gap of 5nm capacity slack due to iPhone order cuts and Apple seasonality.\nTSMC should see more corroboration of growth momentum in HPC, potential Intel CPU orders at 3nm, faster growth in AMD CPU, and Nvidia’s(NASDAQ:NVDA)AI accelerators. Intel outsourcing, if executed, is estimated to add 1% to TSMC’s revenue (Mizuho).\nThe $28 billion capex spending reflects management's confidence about advanced node chips' long-term demand strength and possible 15% compound annual revenue growth in the next 2-3 years.\nTSMC’s Low Ground\nThe low-ground case would include several negative factors on the horizon that the high-ground case does not consider:\nDecreasing utilization rate results from fading WFH demand.TSMC has operated at full capacity for a while; however, weaker-than-expected demand and macro conditions may lead to downside risk for utilization rate forecasts.It is estimated that every 1% decline in the utilization rate could result in 4%-5% downside to the 2021-2022 EPS estimates.\nMedium-term inventory correction is inevitable.Inventory correction from a fading WFH demand is expected in 2H21. Logic semi inventory restocking has lasted for 6-7 quarters by 1Q21. While near-term demand indicators remain solid in the logic semi space, it is likely that there will be some inventory correction after 2022, as suggested by the analyst forecasts (Figure 2). However, JP Morgan predicts that end demand drivers for TSMC are likely to become more structural rather than cyclical in the future, with revenues from HPC likely to crossover those from smartphones by 2023. Consequently, TSMC could fare better during logic semi down cycle and recover faster from the trough vs other tier-2 Foundries (JP Morgan).\n\nAverage selling price (ASP) may go down.TSMC has benefited from a 6% increase in ASP in 2021/22. However, the advantage has been reduced due to pricing competition from Samsung.Mizuho estimated that every 1% fall in ASP could result in 2%-3% downside for our EPS estimates for 2021-22.\nWeakening USD (Strengthening TWD) cuts into EPS.Approximately 99% of TSMC’s sales are denominated in US dollars, but only 15% of its Cost of Goods Sold is in US dollars. Thus, TWD appreciation impacts the company’s gross margin. Based on Mizuho’s estimate,every 1% TWD appreciation could lead to 1%-2% downside to EPS estimates for 2021-22.\n$28 billion Capex may dilute dividend payment. Taiwan Semiconductor's 1Q guidance of 23% year-over-year revenue growth indicates stronger sales of computing processors and automotive chips may offset the seasonality of smartphone chips. The $28 billion full-year capital budget may cut into the company's free cash flow and lead to greater volatility in the dividend.\nFrom Future Financials to Future Stock Prices\nAfter the high-ground and low-ground scenarios are developed, I will explain how to convert forecast financials into future stock prices: If a stock is priced based on its forecast financials at each point in time, I should first find those financial metrics which have traditionally affected the stock prices. A historical relationship between the historical stock prices and these financial metrics is first identified (multiple regression method). Then, the current forecast of these financial metrics at different future time point can be used to generate the future stock price targets. Historically, TSMC's stock prices are known to react to consensus forecasts of revenue, EPS, gross margin, capital expenditure, and free cash flow or dividend, e.g., the relationships in Figures 1A-1B.\n\nKeep in mind that although I used historical data to estimate a historical relationship, it is still a forward-looking process. This is because, at any point in time in history, TSMC's price is estimated by the forward estimates of the five financial metrics at that time. The only assumption I made is that investors used the same (forward-looking) valuation structure to price stocks consistently. Using the relationship and the analysts' next 10-quarter estimates of the five metrics, I was able to compute the future stock prices corresponding to those forward financials.\nHigh-Ground vs. Low-Ground Share Prices\nFor high-ground scenario, I used the normal relationship which assumes TSMC stock price is determined by forecast quarterly revenue, EPS, capital expenditure, and dividend estimates. For low-ground scenario, I included additional negative factors of expected 10-year Treasury yield up moves (from futures contracts), the future USD depreciation (from futures contracts), the forecast higher inventory, and forecast distant revenue growth rates (for lower utilization rates).\n\nIn Figure 2, I showed the high-ground prices in red, the low-ground prices in green and the actual TSMC price in black. Of course, after Q1 2021, only predicted prices are available. If you can go along with my approach, Figure 3 becomes quite telling. First of all, up till today, both predicted prices seem to map the actual stock price quite closely, the tight relationship implicitly validate the power of the models. It is also expected both scenarios behaved very similarly because all the additional (negative) factors included in the low-ground case are more relevant in the next few quarters. This is why the high-ground price explains the realty better until today, as both actual and high-ground prices are around $118 at Q1 2021, while low-ground price is at $81.\n\nIt is more important to see how the future share price plays out under each scenario. Table 1 indicates that the high-ground prices consistently trade at a $40 premium over the low-ground price and eventually to over $80 premium by Q4 2022. Of course, you can assign your own estimates on the chance that each scenario will happen. Due to the short-term nature of all the negative factors, my own guess is biased to the high-ground, fundamental picture of TSMC. Using a 30% low-ground/70% high-ground guess, the resulting TSMC future share price may be relatively flat in 2021 but will take off to $170 by the end of 2022 (Table 1).\nTakeaways\nBeing the largest player in a critically important space, TSMC is at the choke point that gives the company an advantage to benefit from the rigidity of capacity expansion to meet demand surge (high ground). It appears that TSMC share price has already priced in this advantage. But like all other tech stocks, TSM has not priced in the rising yields, fading WFH demand, high valuation, and future competitors’ challenges (low ground).\nIf considering both the high ground and low ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level. But share price is expected to have moderate upside for 2021. The real excitement will be in 2022 when the negative low-ground factors are out of the system. TSM may reach $170 by 2022.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":345556843,"gmtCreate":1618325158382,"gmtModify":1704709234746,"author":{"id":"3575859183800572","authorId":"3575859183800572","name":"w8w8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a305fe39d1c227693a64cc331afda1a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575859183800572","authorIdStr":"3575859183800572"},"htmlText":"Steamed","listText":"Steamed","text":"Steamed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345556843","repostId":1155582622,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345328451,"gmtCreate":1618280555873,"gmtModify":1704708525500,"author":{"id":"3579568649549102","authorId":"3579568649549102","name":"KF73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08cb18d8dbd8d12a776f947554bdb6e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579568649549102","authorIdStr":"3579568649549102"},"htmlText":"[強]&nbsp;","listText":"[強]&nbsp;","text":"[強]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345328451","repostId":1155582622,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4056517,"gmtCreate":1618617355947,"gmtModify":1680784389517,"authorId":3579568649549102,"author":{"id":3579568649549102,"idStr":"3579568649549102","authorId":3579568649549102,"name":"KF73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08cb18d8dbd8d12a776f947554bdb6e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":345328451,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"What now!","text":"What now!","html":"What now!"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":343724330,"gmtCreate":1617757024520,"gmtModify":1704702668002,"author":{"id":"3579499674719622","authorId":"3579499674719622","name":"Green_Bull","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b36a4e65060065270d80233b49b19d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579499674719622","authorIdStr":"3579499674719622"},"htmlText":"Nice. Detail analyse&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;","listText":"Nice. Detail analyse&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;","text":"Nice. Detail analyse [強]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343724330","repostId":1155582622,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":352859797,"gmtCreate":1616934014319,"gmtModify":1704800058403,"author":{"id":"3565301069082159","authorId":"3565301069082159","name":"MyGunner","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946429fe15553c46fc12d6e3624240c6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3565301069082159","authorIdStr":"3565301069082159"},"htmlText":"One of my favourite stock","listText":"One of my favourite stock","text":"One of my favourite stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352859797","repostId":1155582622,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356455287,"gmtCreate":1616809737749,"gmtModify":1704799275219,"author":{"id":"3569320299762451","authorId":"3569320299762451","name":"DreamyLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df94d831afbfa80ddda11b9d4ff73cf1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569320299762451","authorIdStr":"3569320299762451"},"htmlText":"Waiting for China’s Semiconductor Alliance to killthis American (because of its relationship to the west)&nbsp;junk.&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for China’s Semiconductor Alliance to killthis American (because of its relationship to the west)&nbsp;junk.&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for China’s Semiconductor Alliance to killthis American (because of its relationship to the west) junk.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356455287","repostId":1155582622,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356491225,"gmtCreate":1616804420567,"gmtModify":1704799184968,"author":{"id":"3577491813858965","authorId":"3577491813858965","name":"Apple456","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577491813858965","authorIdStr":"3577491813858965"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356491225","repostId":1155582622,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356490038,"gmtCreate":1616804000524,"gmtModify":1704799180896,"author":{"id":"3559088164596385","authorId":"3559088164596385","name":"Troedas","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559088164596385","authorIdStr":"3559088164596385"},"htmlText":"Awesome ?","listText":"Awesome ?","text":"Awesome ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356490038","repostId":1155582622,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358990381,"gmtCreate":1616647004843,"gmtModify":1704796882426,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"htmlText":"@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? ?","listText":"@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? ?","text":"@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? 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