华尔街分析师：这些美股看起来很贵，但不买会后悔

腾讯美股2021-04-08

对于美股投资者来说，他们可能会对投资于市盈率较高的公司持谨慎态度，原因是各大基准指数都正处在历史高点附近。但是，这种想法可能会让投资者白白亏掉原本可以赚到的钱。市盈率较高的公司或许可以继续快速地实现销售额增长，从而在此过程中提振盈利，这就可能会推动其股价上涨——尽管标普500指数刚刚在4月6日触及盘中新高，而纳斯达克综合指数也在2月19日创下了新高。对于这种公司来说，投资者应该关注的是其在...

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Comment（8）

一冲飞天8
·2021-04-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$加油?
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haiwei183
·2021-04-08
是真的嗎？
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Derick 哈哈哈哈
·2021-04-08
情緒高，投機記得趁機
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alexzeng2020
·2021-04-08
謝謝分享
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Ra1012
·2021-04-08
[驚訝]
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馨墨
·2021-04-08
?
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Sochkio
·2021-04-08
每個月買一點，好的股票只會越來越貴
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- haiwei183:
  是真的
  2021-04-08
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爱上投资学
·2021-04-08
非常看好哦！
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- 爱上投资学:
  应该有机会
  2021-04-08
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them","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b8ea99f49c38bea6e1bf1e5e0aeb268","symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"FB":0.9,"NFLX":0.9},"content_text":"对于美股投资者来说，他们可能会对投资于市盈率较高的公司持谨慎态度，原因是各大基准指数都正处在历史高点附近。但是，这种想法可能会让投资者白白亏掉原本可以赚到的钱。\n\n市盈率较高的公司或许可以继续快速地实现销售额增长，从而在此过程中提振盈利，这就可能会推动其股价上涨——尽管标普500指数刚刚在4月6日触及盘中新高，而纳斯达克综合指数也在2月19日创下了新高。\n对于这种公司来说，投资者应该关注的是其在至少未来两到三年时间里的前景。经济学家和投资分析师预计，在这个时间段里，经济将可恢复增长，企业盈利也将随之回升。与此同时，美联储一直都承诺，该行将把其基准利率维持在接近于零的水平。\n如果华尔街分析师的这种预测是正确的，那么在未来几年时间里，以下这些公司的市盈率（基于当前股价计算）将会大幅下降。换而言之，如果投资者现在由于嫌弃这些股票的市盈率太高而不愿买入，那么到两三年以后可能就会有追悔莫及之感。\n以亚马逊为例\n在截至4月5日的五年时间里，电商巨头亚马逊的股价飙升了451%。\n与SPDR标普500 ETF信托（交易代码：SPY）和追踪纳斯达克100指数的景顺QQQ信托（交易代码：QQQ）相比，亚马逊的预期市盈率（基于接受财经信息供应商FactSet调查的分析师的12个月共识预期）一直都很高。这两只ETF（交易所交易基金）的预期市盈率与两年前相比已经大幅上升，但仍远低于亚马逊的预期市盈率。\n自1997年亚马逊IPO（首次公开募股）上市以来，可能随时都会有人警告称，投资者应该避开这家电商公司的股票才对。然而，如果真的有人这样做了，那无疑是个错误，因为股市一直都在用高市盈率来回报亚马逊快速的销售额增长。\n跟亚马逊一样，在进行估值研究时，一家公司的盈利表现可能会产生误导。这是因为，各个公司之间的盈利可能会有很大的差异，特别是如果一家公司强调对其业务进行再投资，而不是把利润呈现出来的话。在2015年到2020年之间，亚马逊年度营收的复合年增长率为29%，期间亚马逊每年都实现了盈利。但就在之前的2014年，该公司的净亏损为2.41亿美元，净销售额为890亿美元。\n高市盈率股票的投资筛选\n纳斯达克100指数由纳斯达克综合指数中市值最大的100家公司组成，不包括金融公司，这意味着该指数在很大程度上倾向于科技公司和其他快速增长的公司。\n基于接受FactSet调查的分析师对2023年至2023年销售额的共识预期，华尔街分析师对该指数的100只成分股进行了筛选，但排除了无法获得2023年盈利预期的11家公司，并排除了任何预计将在2021年、2022年或2023年期间出现年度销售额下降或净亏损的公司，这就使得最初的名单减少到了77家公司。以下是预计在未来三年时间里将可实现最高的复合年销售额增长率的25家公司，以及它们目前的预期市盈率以及当前股价与2023年和2023年预期每股收益的比率：\n\n现在再回头看看亚马逊，可以看出，分析师预计该公司未来三年销售额的复合年增长率将放缓至19%，但如果能够保持下去，那么这仍然是非常令人印象深刻的增长率。该公司目前股价与2023年预期每股收益的比率为34.8，而对于一家还在快速增长的公司来说，这样的估值并不算高得离谱。\n从上图中的榜单顶端来看，MercadoLibre和Peloton Interactive Inc.（股票代码：PTON）的市盈率看起来仍然非常高，而基于当前股价计算，两年后的预期市盈率也还是非常高。另外，Zoom 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