What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us

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What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us

Marketwatch2021-07-07

In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...

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fionacheng
·2021-07-08
Pls like and comment
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JENerousity
·2021-07-07
Nice man?
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- JENerousity:
  Nice
  2021-07-07
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- Joyh:
  Nice
  2021-07-07
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Nagbaba
·2021-07-07
Nice one
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cmg76
·2021-07-07
Definitely
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fisheyyy
·2021-07-07
Like n comment pls
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- weijie123:
  done help like and comment too
  2021-07-07
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GeoLegends
·2021-07-07
Black Swan again? We just went through 1 last year
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ThomasSim
·2021-07-07
Comment like and comment like and comment
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- ThomasSim:
  comment comment comment comment comment comment
  2021-07-07
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Soarhigh
·2021-07-07
Like n comment pls
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- cmg76:
  Yada
  2021-07-07
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tsophia
·2021-07-07
Ooo
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- Henrypeh:
  Ooo
  2021-07-07
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Jlhs
·2021-07-07
Big correction coming
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- Josh99:
  Hi
  2021-07-07
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- KopiLim:
  Go go go
  2021-07-07
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ahleemama
·2021-07-07
Media trying to stir shit. All these naratives... i only know the fking bull! BULLISH
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whoisjunhong
·2021-07-07
??
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whoisjunhong
·2021-07-07
??
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whoisjunhong
·2021-07-07
??
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LexieLzz96
·2021-07-07
Latest
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FUNKOPOP
·2021-07-07
Comment and like, please :)
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CuriousMind
·2021-07-07
Hitting like the sky
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- Mousey:
  Ok
  2021-07-07
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- Noobie:
  wow
  2021-07-07
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abp
·2021-07-07
Please like and comment
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- miaomee:
  Like n comment back pls
  2021-07-07
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Hectic
·2021-07-07
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- matcha_latte:
  ok
  2021-07-07
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In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"market_watch","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","article_id":"1156748810","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"market_watch","name":"华尔街大事件"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"股市创历史新高的“黑天鹅”指数告诉我们什么","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":149010331,"gmtCreate":1625691454023,"gmtModify":1703746388761,"author":{"id":"3580357526223185","authorId":"3580357526223185","authorIdStr":"3580357526223185","name":"fionacheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580357526223185"},"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149010331","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140551311,"gmtCreate":1625666839933,"gmtModify":1703746025818,"author":{"id":"3580293346761839","authorId":"3580293346761839","authorIdStr":"3580293346761839","name":"JENerousity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c9bfda6699fa5b09a30b10b2634052","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580293346761839"},"htmlText":"Nice man?","listText":"Nice man?","text":"Nice man?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140551311","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5150279,"gmtCreate":1625666848341,"gmtModify":1663230655626,"authorId":3580293346761839,"author":{"id":3580293346761839,"authorId":3580293346761839,"name":"JENerousity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c9bfda6699fa5b09a30b10b2634052","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.11","exceedPercentage":"80.09%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140551311,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"},{"id":5150342,"gmtCreate":1625667063568,"gmtModify":1663230654630,"authorId":3576336332882185,"author":{"id":3576336332882185,"authorId":3576336332882185,"name":"Joyh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a399ff6bb0949df947cf76b3ac6d9dce","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.66%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140551311,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140521375,"gmtCreate":1625666624497,"gmtModify":1703746010609,"author":{"id":"3579071733508514","authorId":"3579071733508514","authorIdStr":"3579071733508514","name":"Nagbaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579071733508514"},"htmlText":"Nice one","listText":"Nice one","text":"Nice one","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140521375","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140510651,"gmtCreate":1625665796873,"gmtModify":1703745962361,"author":{"id":"3581589405041654","authorId":"3581589405041654","authorIdStr":"3581589405041654","name":"cmg76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bce68ec0cb45bf31e79e66a7fa376ad","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581589405041654"},"htmlText":"Definitely","listText":"Definitely","text":"Definitely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140510651","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140539260,"gmtCreate":1625665485850,"gmtModify":1703745950682,"author":{"id":"3583709883392258","authorId":"3583709883392258","authorIdStr":"3583709883392258","name":"fisheyyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00ef720127ceb6bf1884b23bc9980e85","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583709883392258"},"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140539260","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5149969,"gmtCreate":1625665731849,"gmtModify":1663230654548,"authorId":3575205207637336,"author":{"id":3575205207637336,"authorId":3575205207637336,"name":"weijie123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79451a0e5ae21cfbd9c59c760eed0a7","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.16%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140539260,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done help like and comment too","text":"done help like and comment too","html":"done help like and comment too"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140274973,"gmtCreate":1625664864992,"gmtModify":1703745917640,"author":{"id":"3584748254057781","authorId":"3584748254057781","authorIdStr":"3584748254057781","name":"GeoLegends","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b58fc6a4f5903eabaf4a377779a7a2f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584748254057781"},"htmlText":"Black Swan again? We just went through 1 last year&nbsp;","listText":"Black Swan again? We just went through 1 last year&nbsp;","text":"Black Swan again? We just went through 1 last year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140274973","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140244522,"gmtCreate":1625664427066,"gmtModify":1703745903971,"author":{"id":"3566283048885824","authorId":"3566283048885824","authorIdStr":"3566283048885824","name":"ThomasSim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae8ed8301f80085926169333185d321","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566283048885824"},"htmlText":"Comment like and comment like and comment","listText":"Comment like and comment like and comment","text":"Comment like and comment like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140244522","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5149693,"gmtCreate":1625664532110,"gmtModify":1663230654328,"authorId":3566283048885824,"author":{"id":3566283048885824,"authorId":3566283048885824,"name":"ThomasSim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae8ed8301f80085926169333185d321","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140244522,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"comment comment comment comment comment comment","text":"comment comment comment comment comment comment","html":"comment comment comment comment comment comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140246141,"gmtCreate":1625664225383,"gmtModify":1703745899638,"author":{"id":"3578649173059357","authorId":"3578649173059357","authorIdStr":"3578649173059357","name":"Soarhigh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578649173059357"},"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140246141","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5149993,"gmtCreate":1625665824466,"gmtModify":1663230654438,"authorId":3581589405041654,"author":{"id":3581589405041654,"authorId":3581589405041654,"name":"cmg76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bce68ec0cb45bf31e79e66a7fa376ad","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140246141,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Yada</u>","text":"<u>Yada</u>","html":"<u>Yada</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140240969,"gmtCreate":1625663910851,"gmtModify":1703745891449,"author":{"id":"3585900512156141","authorId":"3585900512156141","authorIdStr":"3585900512156141","name":"tsophia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ead9ef2ae0ac9dbc22a97795f9bb03","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585900512156141"},"htmlText":"Ooo","listText":"Ooo","text":"Ooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140240969","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5149613,"gmtCreate":1625663980666,"gmtModify":1663230653735,"authorId":3583151348704180,"author":{"id":3583151348704180,"authorId":3583151348704180,"name":"Henrypeh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140240969,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ooo","text":"Ooo","html":"Ooo"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140257477,"gmtCreate":1625663890799,"gmtModify":1703745891286,"author":{"id":"3581920737588901","authorId":"3581920737588901","authorIdStr":"3581920737588901","name":"Jlhs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4018092a565712f4e79df978666b6af0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581920737588901"},"htmlText":"Big correction coming&nbsp;","listText":"Big correction coming&nbsp;","text":"Big correction coming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140257477","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5149656,"gmtCreate":1625664239223,"gmtModify":1663230652342,"authorId":3550230513368034,"author":{"id":3550230513368034,"authorId":3550230513368034,"name":"Josh99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eaa7d04821cc7d6cca51a6f9573bc12","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.05.27","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140257477,"type":1,"supId":5149635,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Hi</u>","text":"<u>Hi</u>","html":"<u>Hi</u>"},{"id":5149635,"gmtCreate":1625664130232,"gmtModify":1663230651738,"authorId":3562886608344748,"author":{"id":3562886608344748,"authorId":3562886608344748,"name":"KopiLim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fcef53a2e715c173a40fafa14a7fe6","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140257477,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Go go go","text":"Go go go","html":"Go go go"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140257223,"gmtCreate":1625663875262,"gmtModify":1703745890792,"author":{"id":"3585830139314556","authorId":"3585830139314556","authorIdStr":"3585830139314556","name":"ahleemama","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5556ad29b085a364d6ea7d326015c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585830139314556"},"htmlText":"Media trying to stir shit. All these naratives... i only know the fking bull! BULLISH","listText":"Media trying to stir shit. All these naratives... i only know the fking bull! BULLISH","text":"Media trying to stir shit. All these naratives... i only know the fking bull! BULLISH","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140257223","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140257659,"gmtCreate":1625663871371,"gmtModify":1703745890462,"author":{"id":"4088747970325780","authorId":"4088747970325780","authorIdStr":"4088747970325780","name":"whoisjunhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a809cc1ecd023c50b08c4901a8066a3a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088747970325780"},"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140257659","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140257933,"gmtCreate":1625663854722,"gmtModify":1703745890129,"author":{"id":"4088747970325780","authorId":"4088747970325780","authorIdStr":"4088747970325780","name":"whoisjunhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a809cc1ecd023c50b08c4901a8066a3a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088747970325780"},"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140257933","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140254232,"gmtCreate":1625663826626,"gmtModify":1703745889306,"author":{"id":"4088747970325780","authorId":"4088747970325780","authorIdStr":"4088747970325780","name":"whoisjunhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a809cc1ecd023c50b08c4901a8066a3a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088747970325780"},"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140254232","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140256426,"gmtCreate":1625663689965,"gmtModify":1703745884704,"author":{"id":"4087389216918450","authorId":"4087389216918450","authorIdStr":"4087389216918450","name":"LexieLzz96","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0daa36d834110809a4404cebbc129364","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087389216918450"},"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140256426","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140256572,"gmtCreate":1625663677896,"gmtModify":1703745885687,"author":{"id":"3583869800933508","authorId":"3583869800933508","authorIdStr":"3583869800933508","name":"FUNKOPOP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b282021e8dd2e0d964e13160d3be3328","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583869800933508"},"htmlText":"Comment and like, please :)","listText":"Comment and like, please :)","text":"Comment and like, please :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140256572","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140256632,"gmtCreate":1625663649926,"gmtModify":1703745884540,"author":{"id":"4087814840204720","authorId":"4087814840204720","authorIdStr":"4087814840204720","name":"CuriousMind","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f806850e383499f739e74236aec6319d","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087814840204720"},"htmlText":"Hitting like the sky","listText":"Hitting like the sky","text":"Hitting like the sky","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140256632","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5149582,"gmtCreate":1625663773830,"gmtModify":1663230653844,"authorId":3582013756437525,"author":{"id":3582013756437525,"authorId":3582013756437525,"name":"Mousey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/830131bc3b204bdb28fb53b87586f968","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140256632,"type":1,"supId":5149561,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5149561,"gmtCreate":1625663667425,"gmtModify":1663230653546,"authorId":3567561509552628,"author":{"id":3567561509552628,"authorId":3567561509552628,"name":"Noobie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c151d2770de35223f6d092c46c4e3c31","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140256632,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>wow</u>","text":"<u>wow</u>","html":"<u>wow</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140251615,"gmtCreate":1625663534937,"gmtModify":1703745881249,"author":{"id":"3581979721991802","authorId":"3581979721991802","authorIdStr":"3581979721991802","name":"abp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0c0424f61209387c56148e921c507f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581979721991802"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140251615","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5149562,"gmtCreate":1625663675963,"gmtModify":1663230654339,"authorId":3569375896365334,"author":{"id":3569375896365334,"authorId":3569375896365334,"name":"miaomee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd309d5a46384576888494b61b0e5953","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140251615,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like n comment back <u>pls</u>","text":"Like n comment back <u>pls</u>","html":"Like n comment back <u>pls</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140251186,"gmtCreate":1625663518745,"gmtModify":1703745881083,"author":{"id":"4087905766298780","authorId":"4087905766298780","authorIdStr":"4087905766298780","name":"Hectic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a52c68e0b84d7f61c9d9ccf225bb2bb8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087905766298780"},"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140251186","repostId":1156748810,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5149578,"gmtCreate":1625663759590,"gmtModify":1663230655545,"authorId":3581766638376505,"author":{"id":3581766638376505,"authorId":3581766638376505,"name":"matcha_latte","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140251186,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":60,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}