To The Moon

Q2 2026 US Stock Market Focus: A key question arises: After 24 years in operation, how does SpaceX resemble a startup? The answer lies in its cash burn, which is double its revenue. This is a critical takeaway from SpaceX's first public earnings report, released after its listing.

The report shows that SpaceX generated $7.8 billion in second-quarter revenue, while its cash consumption during the same period reached $16 billion. This massive spending was driven by $18.4 billion in capital expenditures, with most funds directed toward expanding AI data center projects.

Similar to a startup, SpaceX is highly ambitious. During the earnings call with analysts, CEO Elon Musk stated that the company now expects revenue to surpass $1 trillion by 2030, moving the target forward by one year compared to its pre-IPO goal. He even suggested the possibility of achieving this by 2029. Given that total revenue for the first half of the year was only $12.5 billion, this is undoubtedly an ambitious target.

CFO Brett Johnson indicated that by the end of this year, the company's annualized revenue run rate would reach $100 billion. However, it is important to note that the annualized revenue metric is simply a single month's revenue multiplied by 12, not a rigorous actual performance figure. Musk specifically emphasized that the $1 trillion target refers to official revenue, not an annualized estimate.

Musk also claimed that Starlink could potentially handle the majority of the world's internet connections in "less than a decade." Meanwhile, second-in-command Gwynne Shotwell revealed that the Starlink mobile communication service, planned for launch by the end of 2027, would take a significant number of customers from major US telecom operators. This statement carries significant weight, as SpaceX not only aims to dominate the broadband internet market but also plans to directly compete with large mobile network operators.

Beyond this, the company has grand plans in the AI sector, including building space-based data centers and advancing space exploration. Investors seem to have reacted coolly to this series of ambitious projections—or perhaps they are under pressure. SpaceX's stock price fell 6.5% in after-hours trading.

Investor reaction is understandable. The market is currently resistant to major tech companies making large capital expenditures for AI, even when those giants can rely on profits from other businesses to cover the costs. Compared to its own cash flow levels, SpaceX's capital investment intensity exceeds that of all major tech companies.

SpaceX's only truly profitable segment is the Starlink internet business, but its profits are far from sufficient to support all of the company's grand plans. For example, Starlink's second-quarter operating profit was only $1.65 billion.

SpaceX could see a performance boost from computing power lease agreements and its proposed acquisition of AI company Cursor. However, securing a foothold in the mobile communications market and continuously expanding AI computing power require massive capital investment. The ultimate returns on investments in both the AI and telecom sectors remain uncertain. Traditional telecom giants must persistently invest heavily in spectrum and equipment, and the market growth they compete for is very limited.

Musk's ambitions are immense, and the outside world will continue to watch whether he can realize these visions.

Bandwidth Demand Surges: The rise of AI is driving up demand for chips and electricity, leading to higher prices for both and increasing costs for smartphones and computers. Musk told analysts on Tuesday that the AI wave will also trigger an explosion in bandwidth demand for data transmission.

"With the proliferation of AI, humanoid robots, in-vehicle robots, and a vast array of other robots, humanity's demand for bandwidth will far exceed previous levels," he said. In other words, various robots, autonomous vehicles, and AI-enabled devices will continuously transmit data, putting immense capacity pressure on broadband service providers, which are currently primarily cable TV companies and mobile network operators. Musk stated that Starlink would become the solution, providing ample bandwidth to meet all demand.