1. At market close, the June delivery light crude oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 27 cents to settle at $94.81 per barrel, a decline of 0.28%. The July delivery Brent crude futures on the London exchange dropped $1.21 to settle at $100.06 per barrel, down 1.19%. The main SC crude oil contract closed 0.88% lower at 629 yuan per barrel. 2. U.S. media reported that the U.S. military struck Iranian ports, with American officials stating this does not signify a resumption of war or an end to the ceasefire. A Fox News correspondent revealed that a senior U.S. official said the United States conducted military strikes on Iran's Qeshm and Abbas ports earlier (early morning of the 8th, Beijing time), but clarified it was not a renewal of hostilities or termination of the truce agreement. The attack on Iran's oil ports occurred two days after Iran launched 15 ballistic and cruise missiles at the UAE's Fujairah port. Previously, senior Pentagon officials stated on Tuesday that Iran's attacks did not reach the level of violating the ceasefire agreement, describing them as "low-intensity attacks." 3. Israel expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding. 4. The United States sanctioned an Iraqi official, accusing them of assisting Iran in selling oil. On the 7th, the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions related to Iran on its official website, including sanctions against an Iraqi official for "helping Iran sell oil." The Treasury stated that a deputy minister of Iraq's oil ministry "used their position to facilitate Iranian oil sales," leading to the sanctions. The Treasury also sanctioned three senior leaders of armed groups closely linked to Iran. Additionally, Reuters reported that the U.S. froze all assets of the sanctioned individuals in the United States and prohibited Americans from engaging in transactions with them. 5. U.S. intelligence suggests Iran could withstand a U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months. According to The Washington Post, a confidential CIA analysis this week indicated that Iran could sustain itself for three to four months under a U.S. maritime blockade before facing more severe economic difficulties. The analysis also noted that despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombing, Iran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities. A U.S. official stated that Iran currently maintains about 75% of its pre-war mobile launcher inventory and approximately 70% of its missile stockpile. The official added that there is evidence the Iranian regime has been able to restore and reactivate nearly all underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and even assemble new missiles that were near completion when the war began. Another U.S. official suggested Iran's ability to endure prolonged economic hardship might be even greater than the CIA assessment, noting that the Iranian leadership has become more radical and determined, increasingly believing it can outlast U.S. political will while suppressing domestic dissent through internal repression. 6. The UAE will establish a committee to document Iran's "aggressive actions." According to the UAE news agency, the UAE will form a national committee specifically to record "Iran's aggressive acts" and the resulting damage. The report stated this new body will create a comprehensive national archive based on reliable evidence to support legal actions against Iran. Earlier this week, the UAE reported intercepting several missile and drone attacks from Iran, with its only operational oil export port, Fujairah, also coming under fire. This marks the first attack by Tehran since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement took effect last month. Iran denied taking action against the Gulf state but warned that any move by the UAE would be met with a "devastating response." Prior to the war, Iran maintained good relations with Abu Dhabi, though disagreements persisted over Iran's regional influence and disputed Gulf islands. 7. Iranian state media accused U.S. media correspondents of possibly spreading false information to manipulate markets for profit.
Investment Logic: Tensions in the Strait have reversed again following U.S. military strikes on Iranian ports. Iran claims the U.S. violated the ceasefire agreement, while the U.S. military may resume escort operations in the strait this week, leading to another rebound in oil prices. Currently, crude oil futures have essentially become a barometer for Middle East tensions. However, the reality of strait disruptions remains unchanged. The future trajectory still presents two distinct paths: military escalation or diplomatic de-escalation.
Strategy: Oil prices are experiencing high volatility due to short-term geopolitical developments. Participating in the crude oil market currently carries significant risk. Using options instruments to hedge against risk is recommended.
Risks: Downside risks: Easing of Middle East conflict, resumption of strait navigation, global economic crisis triggered by energy shortages. Upside risks: Closure of the Strait of Hormuz exceeding expectations.
