To The Moon

General Motors (GM.US) is poised to become the best-performing automaker stock in the U.S. market for 2025, with the Detroit-based company's shares experiencing their strongest performance since its 2009 bankruptcy restructuring. As of Friday's market close, General Motors' stock had surged more than 55% year-to-date, breaking through the $80 per share milestone to set a new historical record, surpassing last year's 48.3% annual gain. According to FactSet data, the stock has climbed nearly 13% so far in December alone, marking its fifth consecutive month of gains. Multiple factors have driven this stock price appreciation. For years, General Motors CEO Mary Barra and other executives have consistently emphasized that the company's shares were significantly undervalued given its sustained and stable profitability. "With exceptional vehicle offerings, innovative technology development, superior customer experiences, and robust financial performance, General Motors will continue to maintain a leading advantage in an increasingly competitive market landscape," Barra stated during the company's quarterly earnings call in October. However, during the period of rising share prices, Barra significantly reduced her holdings in the company. According to publicly filed documents confirmed by General Motors, she has exercised options or sold approximately 1.8 million shares this year, valued at over $73 million. The most recent public filing as of September shows that Barra still holds over 433,500 shares, worth more than $35 million, with her annual compensation largely delivered in the form of options and stock. In a comparative analysis, as of Friday's close, Tesla (TSLA.US) shares had risen 17% year-to-date, Ford Motor (F.US) had gained 34%, while Stellantis (STLA.US) had declined by 15%. Other U.S.-listed automakers such as Honda (HMC.US) and Toyota (TM.US) showed relatively modest annual gains. General Motors' recent quarterly earnings report served as a key catalyst for Wall Street analysts turning more optimistic, triggering multiple rating upgrades and target price increases following the third-quarter results. According to the average analyst expectations compiled by FactSet, over the past five years, General Motors has exceeded Wall Street's adjusted earnings per share estimates in every quarter except for the second quarter of 2022. Wall Street analysts widely note that optimism toward General Motors stems from its strong cash flow generation, earnings resilience, and track record of returning value to shareholders, including through share buybacks. Although tariff concerns persist, the company is expected to benefit significantly from regulatory changes under the Trump administration. UBS recently raised its 12-month price target for General Motors by 14% to $97 per share and named it a top pick in the automotive sector for 2026. Morgan Stanley also upgraded General Motors to "Overweight" earlier this month, with a price target of $90 per share. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco noted in a December 7 investor report: "We believe General Motors leads the three major automakers in North America and globally, with its EBIT margins and return metrics outperforming peers, supported by steady sales growth, higher average transaction prices, disciplined promotional spending, and inventory management." Since June, General Motors' stock has maintained a weekly upward trajectory. The largest single-week gain of 19.3% occurred on October 21 when the company released its third-quarter earnings. The results not only surpassed Wall Street expectations but the company also raised its annual guidance and added that 2026 earnings are projected to be better than 2025. Several external factors have also boosted General Motors' stock performance. The Trump administration relaxed U.S. fuel economy and emissions standards, eliminated penalties implemented during the Biden administration, and renegotiated trade agreements with South Korea, a key manufacturing hub for General Motors. Concurrently, the industry overall is experiencing a slowdown in lower-margin new energy vehicle sales. UBS analyst Joseph Spak stated in a December 15 investor report accompanying the target price increase: "General Motors is essentially a regional (North American) automaker, and we believe it is well-positioned within a more lenient U.S. regulatory environment for emissions and fuel economy." General Motors Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson indicated earlier this month that the company will continue its share repurchase program. He noted at a UBS investor conference: "As long as the current share price remains undervalued, stock buybacks will be a company priority. Moving forward, you will see us continue to adhere to this strategy." According to the average analyst rating compiled by FactSet, General Motors currently holds an "Overweight" rating with an average price target of $80.86 per share.