A Federal Reserve interest-rate decision; earnings reports from Nike, FedEx, and Micron Technology ; and a slew of U.S. housing-market data will be this week’s highlights. The Bank of Japan may also end its long-standing negative-rate policy.
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hold its federal-funds rate target steady, at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Fed watchers will pay close attention to officials’ updated Summary of Economic Projections. The economic and inflation data have generally been stronger than expected since the last so-called “dot plot,” in December, and any changes to policymakers’ assumptions for gross domestic product growth, interest rates, and inflation will be scrutinized.
Nvidia will host its annual GTC conference on Monday, with investors keenly focused on the company's product roadmap as it rides a massive surge in demand for its chips amid the AI boom.
The stock is up more than 260% over the last year, though shares have been roughly flat over the last two weeks with investors in a holding pattern ahead of both this event and the Fed's meeting this week.
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan will issue a policy decision. Economists are forecasting the first interest-rate increase since 2007, from the central bank’s current short-term rate target of -0.1%. Inflation and wage growth have been climbing in the world’s fourth-largest economy.
Housing-related data this week will include the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for March, the Census Bureau’s new residential construction statistics for February, and the National Association of Realtors’ existing-home sales data for February.
Markit’s manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes for March and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for February will come out on Thursday.
On the IPO front, Reddit is set to make its public market debut on Thursday under the ticker 'RDDT' as investors continue to gauge how much last year's frozen market for new issues has thawed in 2024.
On the earnings calendar, other highlights will include results from General Mills and Darden Restaurants.
Monday 3/18
The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 50 reading, two points more than in February. Homebuilders’ sentiment has picked up markedly in the past few months, albeit from a very low level.
Tuesday 3/19
The Bank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. Traders are pricing in about a 50% change that the BOJ will raise its key short-term interest rate to zero from negative 0.1%, which would end the BOJ’s negative interest rate policy which has been in effect since early 2016.
The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for February. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million privately-owned housing starts, about 100,000 more than in January.
Wednesday 3/20
BioNTech, General Mills, and Micron Technology report quarterly results.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision and releases an updated Summary of Economic Projections. The FOMC is widely expected to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at a multidecade high of 5.25% to 5.50%. In December, the SEP showed that the FOMC forecast three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024. Wall Street began this year expecting roughly six rate cuts but has since pared that back to about three. Despite this, the S&P 500 index has made 17 record highs this year.
Thursday 3/21
Accenture, Darden Restaurants, FactSet Research Systems, FedEx, lululemon athletica, and Nike release earnings.
The Bank of England and Swiss National Bank announce their monetary-policy decisions. The BOE is widely expected to keep its bank rate unchanged at 5.25%. Traders see a 25% chance that the SNB will cut its key short-term interest rate to 1.5% from 1.75%.
S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for March. Expectations are for a 51.8 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 52 reading for the Services PMI. Both estimates would be slightly less than the February figures.
The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for February. The consensus call is for the LEI to decline 0.2% month over month. The LEI has fallen for 23 consecutive months. The Conference Board expected real gross domestic product growth to slow to near zero over the next two quarters.
The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for February. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.94 million homes sold, 1.6% less than in January.
