谁是安倍倒下后的下一张“多米诺牌”？

川阅全球宏观2022-07-10

从OPEC秘书长巴尔金多意外身亡，到日本前首相安倍晋三意外被袭。能将这些事件串联起来的市场叙事可能是通胀已经从经济问题演变成政治和社会问题（当然，安倍遇刺背后还有宗教的因素）：油价是2022年通胀高企的重要导火索，但是OPEC迟迟未能有效提高产量缓解不断趋紧的供需格局（图1）；而日本央行在通胀上涨的情况下依旧无限制坚持YCC（收益率曲线控制政策）和政策宽松，现任央行行长黑田东彦是安倍经济学（通过...

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Comment（20）

YEH1211
·2022-07-11
[呆住] [呆住]
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ivyteo6911
·2022-07-11
🙏🙏🙏
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HCBICE
·2022-07-11
[財迷]
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K66gunso
·2022-07-11
[微笑]
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1
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太好多多
·2022-07-11
還好還好
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2
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Jet2017
·2022-07-11
日本要造航母了
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1
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Fold Replies
- HCBICE:
  [财迷] [财迷]
  2022-07-11
  Reply
  Report
Youn7276
·2022-07-11
Ok
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1
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BenWong78
·2022-07-11
😅
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1
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hangyuliang
·2022-07-10
[微笑]
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3
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Linda2240
·2022-07-10
[微笑]
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3
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yuliang559
·2022-07-10
[微笑]
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2
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Mingzu
·2022-07-10
[微笑]
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2
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liuxiangwei
·2022-07-10
[微笑]
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1
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瀚妈
·2022-07-10
a
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瀚妈
·2022-07-10
ok
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1
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404_NO_FOUND
·2022-07-10
只想說一句，可惜不是你送給最中意的那個ta。
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2
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- 瀚妈:
  ok
  2022-07-10
  Reply
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- 铭发:
  🤔
  2022-07-11
  Reply
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刘导元宇宙
·2022-07-10
這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看
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猛逃
·2022-07-10
天天聳人聽聞的。當年林肯倒下了、肯尼迪倒下了、里根半倒了，老美還是那個老美。那類國體，缺了誰天也不塌，雖然也非常震動
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5
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Z等风来
·2022-07-10
兔兔去是t'gu
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王方文
·2022-07-10
u雨可以看有一天kkpjyittyiuuuytkiuyij
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falls?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d913c83aa2fe61930f9953051166785","symbols_score_info":{"EWJ":0.9},"content_text":"从OPEC秘书长巴尔金多意外身亡，到日本前首相安倍晋三意外被袭。能将这些事件串联起来的市场叙事可能是通胀已经从经济问题演变成政治和社会问题（当然，安倍遇刺背后还有宗教的因素）：油价是2022年通胀高企的重要导火索，但是OPEC迟迟未能有效提高产量缓解不断趋紧的供需格局（图1）；而日本央行在通胀上涨的情况下依旧无限制坚持YCC（收益率曲线控制政策）和政策宽松，现任央行行长黑田东彦是安倍经济学（通过量化宽松和扩大财政支出刺激经济）的拥虿（图2）。本篇报告我们想要针对后一方面进行分析：安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？我们认为日本不会抛弃安倍经济学和YCC政策，不过在海外通胀比衰退更加令人难以忍受的背景下，下半年至少需要注意三点风险：日本央行可能会选择一次性、超预期调整YCC政策的波动区间，而这无疑会阶段性加剧全球债市的压力；美债收益率的向下拐点可能会拖后至第四季度甚至更晚才会出现；对于国内来说，通胀和货币政策正常化叙事的强化将导致债券收益率上涨压力更大。对于YCC政策，日本央行的态度将是改变而非抛弃。我们主要回答三个问题：为什么需要改变？为什么不会抛弃？如何改变？疫情后通胀回归、经济波动明显加大，而2016年推出的YCC框架则定位于低通胀和低波动。日本央行在2016年9月推出YCC政策，将长端国债收益率固定在0%附近，有其特定的经济环境和政策诉求：一方面，YCC政策的初衷是为了帮助日本走出长期存在的通缩困境；另一方面YCC的两个主要功能是：通过日元汇率贬值拉动出口、引入输入性通胀；为扩大的政府支出创造良好的融资环境。当前看，YCC的不合时宜性凸显在三点上：第一，经过疫情的洗礼，全球已经逐步走出了过去10年的通缩阴影，当前以及未来十年我们可能迎来高通胀、高波动的年代，日本同样不能幸免，这与YCC政策最初的设置是相悖的；第二，在经济高波动的情况下，顺周期的YCC政策会进一步放大经济的动荡，这明显不适合日本老龄化、低欲望的社会；第三，缺乏灵活的调节机制，容易受到投机资金的攻击。YCC区间调整的频率很低，2016年推出以来仅2018年和2021年拓宽过区间。YCC政策的顺周期主要原因是作为调控中介目标的长端国债收益率是顺周期的。经济下行、通胀不振时为了不让债券收益率跌破下限，日本央行反而需要谨慎地进行债券购买，2020年疫情导致的衰退期间日本央行资产负债表扩张的速度远远慢于欧美央行（图5）；而在经济过热、通胀上涨的情况下，为了避免债券收益率升破上限，日本央行又不得不加大债券的购买量，可能导致通胀火上浇油。而最吸引投机资金的一点是，YCC政策缺乏弹性、调整往往滞后。YCC政策的基本构造是一个稳定的中枢（作为政策目标，现在为0%）和一个可以调整宽窄的波动区间（但调整频率偏低）。这一点和2015年8月之前的人民币汇率定价颇为相似，而结果是在经济下行和投机资金的压力下，人民币汇率的定价放弃了锚定中枢，但是依旧保留波动区间的限制（图6，当前人民币兑美元的日度波动依旧存在2%的上下限限制）。不过我们认为，日本央行不会放弃YCC，同样日本政府不会放弃安倍经济学。第一，从短期看，有澳大利亚央行放弃YCC、债券收益率失控的前车之鉴（图7），日本放弃YCC导致的日债收益率和日元上行会让日本经济更加疲软。第二，从中长期政策来看，“安倍经济学”是日本经济的正确出路，而YCC政策是其中重要的一环。在人口老龄化、青年躺平化的日本，家庭和企业的借贷需求依旧不强，通过低汇率保持出口竞争力、积极的财政支出发挥拉动总需求的主要作用（图8和9），而背后重要的支柱就是相较其他经济体更加宽松的货币政策、更加低廉的融资成本。第三，从国家和政策定位上，至少在金融上日本选择了深度绑定美国，早已放弃了日元国际化的野心，这意味着和美联储不同，保证国内财政低成本融资、托底经济在日本货币政策体系中的居于首位，即使日本央行持有日债规模占全市场的比例已经超过了50%、挤出外国投资者也在所不惜，与之相对，无论是美国需要保持美元的全球储备地位，还是中国需要提高人民币的国际化程度，都需要保证债券收益率处于合理水平，保证债市流动性和对外开放程度。怎么变？下半年日本央行会上调YCC上限的利率至0.5%以上（现在为0.25%），而且很可能会采取一步到位、超市场预期的方式。由于日本央行主要锚定10年期日债，这导致日债收益率曲线在10年期限处下凸（图12），我们通过正常情况下曲线的陡峭程度来估算10年日债收益率的合理位置，以7年期为例（按近期高点0.27%和0.19%的10年与7年期限利差计算），在不改变基准政策利率的情况下，10年期日债上限水平至少在0.46%上方（图13），考虑到市场情绪以及日本央行调整区间的习惯（幅度通常为5bp的整数倍），下半年YCC区间很可能拓宽至±0.5%，本质上相当于加息至少25bp。往后看，在高通胀、高波动时代YCC可能阶段性演变成一种利率上限机制，上限利率调整比中枢利率的政策信号更明确，日本央行可以在控制日债融资成本的前提下，通过更频繁地调整上限利率和债券购买来进行逆周期操作。我们认为日本央行会一次性、大幅度、超市场预期调整的原因主要在于，历史经验表明调整僵化的定价机制（例如固定汇率机制）不宜充分引导市场预期、循序渐进，这反而会导致更多的投机资金押注、套利，造成更大的市场动荡。日本央行这么做，日债会崩盘？不会，其实日本央行在操作上并不被动。一方面，日本央行是日本国债现货市场上最大的持有方，海外机构的占比仅在10%左右（图14）；另一方面，投机资金做空日债主要是通过期货（流动性更好），在现货市场流动性不足（期货交割不方便）的情况下，做空期货主要是短期和阶段性的（主要在日本央行议息会议前，图15）。日本央行的压力主要来自于政治和社会民意层面。不过日本央行主动拓宽YCC区间，会导致短期内全球债券市场再次承压。日本央行作为发达经济体货币政策“鸽派”最后的大本营，它的转向将具有里程碑式的象征意义。除此之外，作为全球对外投资头寸最大的经济体，YCC变动带来的利率和汇率变化，很可能会使得日本调整（很可能是减少）对外固定收益投资的敞口，进一步加剧市场动荡。日元：在日本央行行动前贬值压力一直存在，尤其是议息会议前后。一方面，在日本央行行动前，美联储持续加息客观上会拉大日美利差，导致日元走弱；另一方面，在美联储货币政策转向前，资金会持续在日本央行议息会议前押注其调整政策，机构在做空日债期货的同时，做空日元是很好的对冲仓位（日本央行调整政策，日债期货赚钱；日本央行按兵不动，日元空头赚钱）。我们认为140是日元的一道坎。日本5月的进口价格同比增速超过40%，创下1980年以来的新高，其中日元贬值贡献了约40%的增速。由于物价的上涨，岸田内阁的不支持率在7月已经升至履新以来的高位27%。我们认为日元跌破140元后，来自社会和政治层面的压力会迫使日本央行重新评估现行的政策，日本财政部也适时进行外汇干预。对于安倍晋三被刺和下半年日本货币政策“灰犀牛”的外溢影响，我们觉得主要关注两个点：一是美债收益率的向下拐点可能会较之前来得更晚，二是国内债券收益率下半年上涨的压力可能会更大。美债收益率向下的拐点会出现得更晚，可能要到第四季度甚至更晚。近期的一系列事件表明不应低估当前欧美央行政策紧缩的决心。我们认为2022年美债的走势特点可能需要参考20世纪70至80年代，21世纪以来美债收益率向下拐点在衰退前出现的模式已经不适用了。21世纪以来10年期美债收益率挂点往往在衰退前出现的重要原因是美联储往往会经济下行压力较大时率先开启前瞻式降息（图16），但是当前高通胀下的货币政策操作可能更像20世纪70至80年代，政策转向往往发生在衰退开始之后，这也导致债券收益率的高点（或者二次冲高点）会出现在衰退期间（图17）。除此之外，日本货币政策变动带来的全球“余震”，中国经济在第三季度的快速复苏，以及拜登政府在11月中期选举前对于通胀的异常重视。这些因素会导致美债收益率的向下拐点可能要到第四季度才会出现。对于中国来说，抛开地缘政治和逆全球化的宏大叙事，从市场逻辑看，下半年债券收益率上行的压力会更大，我们倾向于认为下半年10年期债券收益率会阶段性站上2.90%，触及3%：从宏观环境和市场逻辑上看，海外市场是通胀和衰退此消彼长，但国内，至少在第三季度，经济快速复苏，服务业恢复和猪肉加速上涨可能导致CPI阶段性上3、甚至超市场预期，叠加海外通胀叙事的煽风点火，这对于债市明显不是好消息；而2019年猪肉价格大涨、债券利率反而下行的经历在2022年不具备参考意义——彼时的宏观大背景是全球通胀低迷，基本面偏弱下央行纷纷转向宽松，这与今年存在较大差异。从外部环境看，日本货币政策调整前，日元贬值引领的“亚洲货币战”尚未结束，即使有美国对华减免关税的光环存在，人民币还是存在贬值压力，叠加美元和美债收益率的“坚挺”，货币政策在回归常态的逻辑外，又多了一层内外博弈的色彩，如何在汇率贬值和稳定通胀预期之间平衡会给债市带来额外的不确定性。一旦“复苏+通胀+货币政策回归正常化+限制输入性通胀”的逻辑形成，债市杠杆的去化会加速债市调整。对于国内权益市场来说，通胀叙事下长端美债收益率向下拐点延期，国内债市面临调整，叠加日本央行“灰犀牛”的风险，我们对第三季度成长股的表现较市场会更趋谨慎，尤其是部分第二季度估值恢复迅速、成交火热的板块，需要控制风险。风险提示：海外货币政策收紧下外需回落，国内疫情扩散超市场预期；欧美第三季度加速进入深度衰退，欧美央行被迫提前转向，长端债券收益率提前回落，日本YCC政策压力减小；OPEC下半年超预期大幅增产、俄乌冲突达成共识，原油供给大幅改善导致油价下跌，全球通胀压力缓和。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9071893225,"gmtCreate":1657506355867,"gmtModify":1676536016025,"author":{"id":"4091002561109970","authorId":"4091002561109970","name":"YEH1211","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc1df5e82af4bfbc4c0887624ac48e75","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091002561109970","authorIdStr":"4091002561109970"},"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住] 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