七千字深度分析：铸币权之争！美联储“豹变”

智本社2021-06-16

美国5月CPI同比大涨5%，超预期的4.7%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；核心CPI达3.8%，超市场预期3.5%，增速创1992年以来新高。但是，市场似乎对通胀高企暂时免疫，感觉美联储并没有那么担心通胀。实际上，市场对美联储的恐惧远远超过通胀本身。这次，几乎所有人都在关注美联储动作（本周议息会议）。美联储堆积的股市泡沫正在盯着它，美联储推高的通胀正在盯着它，全球投资者与他国货币当局决策者正在...

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Comment（21）

Dan27
·2021-06-17
[強] [強] [強]
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反卡
·2021-06-17
夏侯霸
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1
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- 虎琊:
  哈哈
  2021-06-17
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- 反卡:
  哈哈
  2021-06-17
  Reply
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- 中国ChinaATM:
  哈哈哈
  2021-06-17
  Reply
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赤耳三皮
·2021-06-17
[微笑]
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1
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- 中国ChinaATM:
  [无语]
  2021-06-17
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中国ChinaATM
·2021-06-17
美國??快點倒吧，中國No.1
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YongGuang
·2021-06-17
ok
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2
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- YongGuang:
  Retie
  2021-06-18
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- 虎琊:
  没问题
  2021-06-17
  Reply
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- 中国ChinaATM:
  [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
  2021-06-17
  Reply
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小雨哈哈嘿
·2021-06-17
贊
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看看叫
·2021-06-17
摩根大通準備了5000億美元，計劃在美聯儲加息前買入升值資產??加息後抄底不香嗎？
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5
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云里梦里飞
·2021-06-17
爲加息而吹風嗎？
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1
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- 中国ChinaATM:
  [鬼脸]
  2021-06-17
  Reply
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阿麦小乔
·2021-06-17
666
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3
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我要Bonus
·2021-06-17
任務，回覆合點贊
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2
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- 云里梦里飞:
  来了来了
  2021-06-17
  Reply
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- 中国ChinaATM:
  [冷漠]
  2021-06-17
  Reply
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longLong
·2021-06-17
[捂臉]
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1
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CKWAI
·2021-06-17
來，回覆和點贊，謝謝
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2
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- 云里梦里飞:
  来了来了 [微笑]
  2021-06-17
  Reply
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Kenwong
·2021-06-17
?
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2
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- ECec:
  ?
  2021-06-17
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TZH1402
·2021-06-17
??
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1
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VinC
·2021-06-17
提高最低工資，只會降低就業率
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1
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秃秃亿秃秃
·2021-06-17
好文
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2
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秃秃亿秃秃
·2021-06-17
好文
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1
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stroke
·2021-06-17
Comment
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1
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股市轟炸机队长
·2021-06-16
寫的好用心哦，給你個贊
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2
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Yongda413
·2021-06-16
Hi
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1
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n七千字深度分析：铸币权之争！美联储“豹变”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 20:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i6EiuhnHI_tO5HoITx07dQ><strong>智本社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国5月CPI同比大涨5%，超预期的4.7%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；核心CPI达3.8%，超市场预期3.5%，增速创1992年以来新高。\n但是，市场似乎对通胀高企暂时免疫，感觉美联储并没有那么担心通胀。实际上，市场对美联储的恐惧远远超过通胀本身。这次，几乎所有人都在关注美联储动作（本周议息会议）。美联储堆积的股市泡沫正在盯着它，美联储推高的通胀正在盯着它，全球投资者与他国货币当局决策者正在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i6EiuhnHI_tO5HoITx07dQ\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TQQQ","symbol_name":"纳指三倍做多ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i6EiuhnHI_tO5HoITx07dQ","article_id":"1158977040","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158977040","pubTimestamp":1623847201,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1571708360699","name":"智本社"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"美国5月CPI同比大涨5%，超预期的4.7%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；核心CPI达3.8%，超市场预期3.5%，增速创1992年以来新高。\n但是，市场似乎对通胀高企暂时免疫，感觉美联储并没有那么","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100"},"translate_title":"In-depth Analysis of 7,000 Words: Dispute over Coinage Rights! The Federal Reserve \"Leopard Change\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c73033d5bfbcd4491d22d16c3130967c","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"美国5月CPI同比大涨5%，超预期的4.7%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；核心CPI达3.8%，超市场预期3.5%，增速创1992年以来新高。\n但是，市场似乎对通胀高企暂时免疫，感觉美联储并没有那么担心通胀。实际上，市场对美联储的恐惧远远超过通胀本身。这次，几乎所有人都在关注美联储动作（本周议息会议）。美联储堆积的股市泡沫正在盯着它，美联储推高的通胀正在盯着它，全球投资者与他国货币当局决策者正在盯着它。\n美联储比任何时候都更加权势滔天，毫不夸张的说，如今的全球经济是美联储计划经济。与其说和市场做交易，不如说和美联储做交易。摩根大通准备了5000亿美元，计划在美联储加息前买入升值资产。华尔街传奇交易员保罗·都铎·琼斯则表示，如果美联储在本周议息会议上对通胀置之不理，他将购入比特币、黄金和大宗，但剩余80%的资金，他坦言不知如何配置。\n全球市场在不安地等待着“紧缩恐慌”的到来。但市场很难猜透：美联储到底在等什么？美联储何时终结宽松政策？美联储想干什么？\n从资产负债表的角度来看，美联储已经处在历史的峰值上，以及铸币权的十字路口上。如今，美联储的资产负债表扩张到历史最高位的7.5万亿美元。美联储正面临史上最大规模的主权债务和资产泡沫风险，正面临后疫情时代的通货膨胀以及全球经济不均衡复苏的挑战。\n当下，美联储决策者们正在刀锋上做一场惊险的试验，他们试图改变货币政策的底层思想与规则，以彻底埋葬沃尔克和弗里德曼的政治遗产和学术遗产。如果试验失败，几乎没有人能幸免。如果试验成功，大多数也都无法逃脱。\n本文从铸币权的角度分析美联储“豹变”。\n本文逻辑\n一、美联储斗争\n二、美联储豹变\n三、美联储悖论\n01、美联储斗争\n这场斗争由来已久。\n美联储成立于1913年，最开始受制于金本位制度，美联储无法随意扩张货币，其铸币权威力尚未彰显。美国经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼甚至认为，美联储不作为、乱作为——紧缩政策导致了大萧条的延续。\n1932年《银行法》赋予了美联储用政府债券做担保发行联邦储备券的权力。这意味着美联储可以通过购买政府债券的方式帮助联邦政府融资。但是，这时屈居于联邦政府之下的美联储谋求独立，一直没有大规模采购国债。\n1941年12月，日本偷袭珍珠港，美国对日宣战。战争导致美国国债大跌，为了维护国债价格，帮助美国政府为战争融资，美联储与美国政府达成了合作协议。美联储负责控制利率以稳定国债价格：3个月期国库券利率被固定在3.8%；1年期短期国债利率区间为7.8-9.10%；7-9年期中期利率上限为2%，10年及以上长期国债利率上限为2.5%。这个利率在战时来说是偏低的，有助于美国政府为战争融资。\n战时的美联储，以控制利率为目标，成为了美国政府的融资工具，但赤字货币化导致了战后通胀。二战后通胀高企，杜鲁门总统下令冻结物价，但是到1947年3月，通胀率飙升到20%。这时，美联储担心金融风险，试图摆脱联邦政府的控制，退出战时利率政策，提高利率以压低通胀率。但是，美联储调息需要联邦财政部批准。\n1950年6月，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议决定提高一年期利率，但被杜鲁门总统否决了。为什么？当月底，朝鲜战争爆发，杜鲁门需要美联储继续维持低利率为其提供战争融资。\n无奈胳膊扭不过大腿，美联储继续为联邦政府“打工”。但是，到了1951年2月，通胀率迅速飙升到9.4%。杜鲁门总统再次冻结物价和工资。他召集美联储理事开会，会上指出：“美国现在面临建国以来最大的危机，那比二战以及其他战争时候都要严峻……如果国民对国债失去了信赖的话，那事态就会非常危险。”但是，美联储主席麦凯布不答应，他以辞职相威胁：“可以按照总统的要求将利率固定，但自己会辞职。”麦凯布重申了美联储的职责，那就是管理货币数量、利率和流动性，促进经济安定。\n1951年3月，美联储与财政部就达成了协议，美联储不再承担维持政府债券价格的职责，从此走上独立道路。当年，财政部多次向美联储请求降低利率，均遭拒绝。这是美联储的胜利。但是，随后20多年，美联储并没有建立一套完整的操作手册，沿用了凯恩斯主义思想，维持利率与汇率价格（布雷顿森林体系）。\n1973年石油危机爆发，美国陷入长期滞胀危机，美联储也陷入了泥潭。不管怎么操作，美联储的政策似乎都无效。这时，美国经济学界炸开了花，其中弗里德曼提出的货币主义脱颖而出。\n弗里德曼认为，通胀的根源是美联储超发货币。弗里德曼说：“通货膨胀在任何地方都是货币现象。”这句话否定了通胀是成本现象、价格现象的观点，直接将责任划归给美联储。独立后的美联储缺乏明确的政策目标与操作手册，与联邦政府的关系若即若离。弗里德曼批评60年代的约翰逊政府为了实施大社会法案而大肆借债，美联储再次充当了政府的融资工具。美联储的宽松政策被认为是通胀在60年代末开始走高的直接原因。\n找到原因后，弗里德曼的方法也是很简单，坚决放弃利率目标，减少货币发行量（数量目标），旨在维持币值稳定。1979年沃尔克担任美联储主席，他采纳了弗里德曼的观点。卡特总统面试他时，沃尔克对总统说：“我非常重视美联储的独立性，并且要采取紧缩政策”。事实上，沃尔克做到了，他不顾所有人的反对，大幅度提高利率，通胀在1982年被压下去了。此后，沃尔克为美联储建立了一套完整的操作手册。\n这个操作手册大致是这样的，一半的理论基础是弗里德曼的货币主义，美联储的首要任务是控制通胀，方法包括提高利率和公开市场操作。总之，货币主义视通胀为头号敌人，主张严控货币发行量。沃尔克振聋发聩的警句是：“一点点通胀也是危险的。”\n1982年开始，美国进入了通胀大缓和时代。新西兰央行率先采用单一目标制，即以控制通胀率为央行的唯一目标；澳大利亚、加拿大、欧洲等央行跟随。维持币价稳定，促进货币自由，这其实逐渐向货币本质回归，逐渐向经济规律回归。这是弗里德曼的胜利和新自由主义的胜利。从此，弗里德曼的货币超发即通胀的理论，深入人心、深入民间。\n但是，1987年格林斯潘替代沃尔克担任美联储主席，形势开始发生微妙的变化。转折点发生在当年的“黑色星期一”，刚刚上任几周的格林斯潘遭遇股市暴跌。这是格林斯潘职业生涯的关键一仗，但也改变了他的货币理念。格林斯潘意识到，通胀不是首要威胁，他更加担忧金融的稳定性。\n之后，格林斯潘执掌美联储长达18年，被称为“经济沙皇”。格林斯潘不再是当初的自由主义者，当然也不是彻底的凯恩斯主义者。格林斯潘更像一个权力主义者，他没有让美联储成为联邦政府的附庸，但将美联储塑造成了权力中心。美联储成为市场上的交易员——一位权势滔天的交易员。他热衷于在通货膨胀、财政赤字和金融稳定之间“走钢丝”，尽情地发挥其驾驭术，彰显其号令天下的铸币权。1994年11月，格林斯潘突然上调利率后，弗里德曼如此批评：“格林斯潘难以压制自己要精准调节经济的欲望”。\n1993年斯坦福大学教授约翰·泰勒提出泰勒规则，这个规则试图让通胀、产出水平和联邦基金利率之间保持平衡。说实话，论玩弄权术、论与市场做交易，格林斯潘达化境，泰勒规则玩得溜，但最后还是玩崩了。\n02、美联储豹变\n2008年金融危机爆发后，美联储主席伯南克修订泰勒规则，将潜在通胀目标由2%提升至2.5%，更加倾向于就业目标。但是，美国经济进入了一次深度衰退，失业率长期居高不下。这时就有了伊文思规则。芝加哥联储主席伊文思在2011年9月提出，既在通胀预期低于3%的情况下，如果失业率仍高于7%，就保持近零利率不变。什么意思？\n这说明美联储逐渐将就业目标置于更重要的位置，尽管通胀目标依然重要，但一定的通胀率是可容许的。耶伦执掌美联储主席后实行了温和加息，旨在维持较低联邦基金利率以实现充分就业。\n2020年8月，美联储主席鲍威尔发表的《长期目标和货币政策策略声明》，彻底将充分就业置于物价稳定之前。该声明放宽了对通胀的容忍度，将通胀目标变为“平均通胀目标制”。什么意思？之前通胀目标维持在2%以内，是短期的，而只要长期维持在这个水平即可，这就默许了短期高通胀的存在。同时，就业目标的缺口评估从“就业人数对最高水平的偏离”变为“就业人数对最高水平的不足”。什么意思？美联储最大限度地追求充分就业，尽量避免各种结构性的失业与不平等。\n从2008年之后的每一次调整，似乎都在为应对危机做准备。但是，这个调整趋势正在改变货币政策的底层规则。\n2021年，美国通胀率以超市场预期的增速飙升，5月CPI远远超过之前美联储2%的目标，创下2008年以来的新高。但是，美联储似乎并不急于提前紧缩。美联储在等什么？\n在等就业率提升。从经济的角度来看，美联储遭遇经济不均衡复苏的掣肘，核心问题是通胀率快速上升，但失业率下降缓慢。通胀率快速上升为何没能带动就业率提升（菲利普斯曲线失灵）？\n我在《全球不均衡复苏的经济后果》一文中指出，全球疫苗接种和拜登救市方案造成需求动力强、供给动力弱，进而导致通胀迅速高企、就业提振缓慢。在需求端，家财政庭补贴直接促进消费增长，今年一季度，美国消费增长了7.9%，库存反而下降了3.1%。同时，美联储给市场注入流动性促使房地产投资过热。反观供给端，由于全球疫苗接种不均衡，新兴国家与美国的全球供应链没有完全恢复，大宗商品供应不足，价格上涨传递到下游，引发物价上涨。疫苗接种不均衡导致服务消费恢复缓慢，禁令尚未完全解除，直接影响了就业率提升。今年一季度，在消费部门中，耐用品消费增长9%，非耐用品消费增长3.4%，但服务消费只有1.1%。商品消费和地产投资已经恢复到了疫情爆发前的水平，但是服务消费依然还有5.7%左右的缺口。\n数据显示，2021年1月到4月，美国劳动力市场的“贝弗利奇曲线”（刻画失业率与职位空缺率关系的曲线）明显外移，这说明企业缺工人和工人失业同时存在。这里的原因可能有两种：一是家庭财政补贴引发暂时的主动性失业；二是疫情引发结构性的“技术性失业”。一些企业在疫情期间进行了网络化升级，部分线下岗位消失了。当然，又有一部分新的岗位诞生，今年前4个月，美国新成立的企业达185万个，创下了过去十年同期新高。但是，原来的部分劳动力需要重新谋求新的岗位，而劳动力的重新配置需要时间。\n从政治角度来看，拜登及民主党，作为左派政党，通胀率带来的政治压力远远弱于就业率。\n拜登政府通过1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案时，所有人都已经预料到通胀高企的结果。该法案规定，在2021年9月之前，收入低于75000美元的居民将收到1400美元的支票，失业人士每周可以得到300美元的补贴。这是民主党与拜登第一票仓的货币盛宴，拜登获得了选民支持，第一票仓拿到了真金白银，自然对通胀的怨言要小一些。\n再看就业，就业一直是美国政党追逐的首要目标，因为就业几乎等同于选票。作为左派政党，拜登政府更依赖于就业来提升支持率。拜登政府推动《提高工资法案2021》出台，试图提高最低工资来提振就业。但是，工资上涨与物价上涨存在螺旋关系。这是以牺牲通胀的方式保就业，但效果未必理想。\n问题是，美联储为何也将就业视为首要目标？根据美国《联邦储备法》，美联储的货币政策目标有三个：充分就业、物价稳定与适度的长期利率。如今将就业率目标置于通胀率目标之前，这很可能是美联储货币政策史上的一个转折点。要知道，从80年代开始，美联储一直将通胀率视为货币政策的首要目标。如今的美联储主席鲍威尔正在改变这一货币操守。美联储为什么这么做？\n表面上看是基于经济的考虑，美联储试图用一次大通胀来应对疫情危机和提振就业，促使经济相对均衡复苏。因为就业不振的经济复苏是假复苏。但是，政治或许是更为底层的原因——彻底统治铸币权。\n最近几十年，民间的货币思想与货币当局的思想产生了严重的背离。在全球范围内，弗里德曼的货币主义在民间广受认可。如今，任何一个没有经过专业经济学训练的人都明白，只要货币超发定然会爆发通胀，不是物价上涨，就是股价、房价上涨，外加债务膨胀。但是，在全球货币当局内，货币主义几乎荡然无存。美联储以及全球主要央行在2008年后大肆发行货币，对通胀的警示我行我素。这是为什么？\n03、美联储悖论\n其实，格林斯潘下台后，全球主要央行的铸币权均被凯恩斯主义的门徒所把持。我们知道，萨缪尔森是凯恩斯主义的集大成者，他创建了麻省理工学院研究生部，开创了麻省理工学派。70年代滞胀危机爆发后，弗里德曼开始压制着萨缪尔森，货币主义在80年代成为主流货币思想。但是，萨缪尔森桃李满天下，麻省理工学派负责向全球央行输送行长。如今，全球90%的央行行长均为新凯恩斯主义者。前美联储副主席费希尔，被称为“央行之父”。他曾是麻省理工学院经济系主任，后来分别担任了以色列行长、世界银行首席经济学家及美联储副主席。前美联储主席伯南克、前欧洲央行行长和前意大利央行行长马里奥·德拉吉，均出自麻省理工经济系。\n新凯恩斯主义者掌握全球主要央行的铸币权，借助2008年金融危机彻底清除了沃尔克在美联储的政治遗产。如今，他们分散而流行的理论，如明斯基的金融不稳定理论、科纳普国家货币理论、英尼斯的内生货币理论、勒纳的功能财政理论、兰德尔的现代货币理论，正在试图彻底埋葬弗里德曼的学术遗产。\n他们重新解释了货币，重新解释了70年代大通胀。新凯恩斯主义者认为，70年代大通胀并不是由弗里德曼所言的货币超发导致的，而是货币信用资产崩盘引发的。简单来说就是，特里芬难题导致布雷顿森林体系在1971年崩溃，美元失去了黄金锚，信用资产大缩水，货币价格坍塌。所以，整个70年代，不论美联储怎样操作都无法避免美元贬值。这个过程是美元重新寻锚的过程，也是重建信用体系的过程——信用货币。其实，这两种原因都有，但美元信用坍塌的解释更加充分。到80年代，沃尔克控制通胀，缩减货币量很重要，但更关键是重建了美元的信用体系。\n但是，糟糕的是，他们从这个原因出发推导出一系列新的货币理论，其中最极端的是现代货币理论。他们没有那么担心通货膨胀和货币超发，不要求严格遵守货币发行纪律；认为只要货币信用资产不崩盘，大通胀不会爆发。美联储充当“最后贷款人”，负责给政府财政融资，财政融资的目的是促进充分就业。如此，央行和政府合二为一，货币与债券合二为一，共同促进充分就业。\n再看2008年之后的美联储，他们没有那么担心通胀，放松了对通胀的警惕。他们更关心美元的信用资产——美债，在他们看来，决定大通胀的不是货币超发，而是美债信用崩盘。如此给央行留下巨大的操作空间：只要美债信用稳定，美联储持续印钱，即便通胀短期高企，他们也不担心。\n到这里，我们回顾一下：从70年代开始，弗里德曼的货币主义占据货币思想主流，思想渊源是货币超发引发通胀，因此沃尔克严控货币数量，美联储以控制通胀为首要目标。如今，新凯恩斯主义重新主导全球主要央行，思想渊源是货币信用资产崩盘引发大通胀，只要美债信用稳定，可继续印钱和发债，可容忍短期通胀，支持充分就业，服务于选票政治。\n美联储正在做一场惊险的试验，试图从央行权力与学术思想两个方面彻底埋葬沃尔克与弗里德曼的遗产。而这场试验就是当下——全球后疫情时代高债务、高泡沫、高通胀中的货币抉择。这就是美联储的“豹变”——铸币权政治化。\n这注定是一场惊险的豪赌。但是，问题出在哪里？\n现行的货币制度存在一种悖论，索性称之为“美联储悖论”。\n这个悖论的根本是人为垄断的法币体系。在法币体系下，货币当局是公共部门，又是市场主体。公共部门参与自由市场，成为货币供应最为重要的主体。现在的央行，既是公共部门，又是市场主体，二者经常“打架”。\n“打架”最经典的表现是格里斯潘式语言，也叫美联储式语言。格里斯潘长时间担任美联储主席说话形成了一种风格：模棱两可、扑朔迷离。格林斯潘有句名言：“如果你们认为确切地理解了我讲话的意思，那么，你们肯定是误解了我的意思。”\n问题来了。美联储，作为一个公共部门，必须对外信息公开，货币扩张还是紧缩，提高利率还是降低利率，必须对公众和市场说清楚，不能隐瞒和撒谎。如果美国的公共部门对公众隐瞒或撒谎，这是非常严重的政治事件。但是，美联储又是市场主体，市场主体的特点是不能完全公开信息，因为信息权是相互博弈与自由竞争的重要筹码。美联储不能打明牌，不能让市场完全猜透政策意图。这就是说，美联储必须像企业一样，在自由市场上与企业、个人做博弈、做斗争、做躲猫猫的游戏。\n作为市场主体，美联储的目标应该在市场上逐利；但是，作为公共部门，美联储不能以利润为目标，不得不追求公共目标。公共目标是什么？保就业，保民生，保政府债务，保楼市和股市（公民资产）……这显然背离了货币的本质——市场交易信用的解决方案，而不是公共用品。\n即便美联储作为公共部门，我们也需要思考公共部门的权力与责任边界。1997年，经济学家哈特、施莱佛和维什尼共同在《经济学季刊》上发表了一篇开创性的论文，讨论“政府的适当范围”。借此我们思考：货币当局的权力与责任边界在哪里？其宗旨是什么？在货币当局的“适当范围”内，在这种法币制度悖论下，弗里德曼和格林斯潘已经做到了极致——前者足够克制，后者灵活用权。\n弗里德曼有没有问题？\n弗里德曼当然有问题。他的货币数量目标在投资银行时代不太容易执行。弗里德曼最大的问题是坚持法币垄断制度，人为发行和调节货币。这就无法摆脱美联储悖论。\n客观上说，在法币垄断制度上，弗里德曼在理论上做到了极致——干预最少、操作最简单、严控货币发行量。他回归并且接近货币本质，主张浮动汇率和利率自由化，能自由化的都让它自由化了。唯一没有自由化的是央行发行基础货币，弗里德曼的办法是机械式发行，按照GDP增速的固定比例发行，最大限度的降低人为干预形成超发，促使货币价值稳定。这是一种侮辱人类智商的方法，但又是法币垄断制度下约束铸币权简单粗暴的办法。\n格林斯潘有没有问题？\n格林斯潘当然有问题，他在2001年互联网危机后“演砸”了，用一场楼市泡沫危机替代纳斯达克泡沫危机（克鲁格曼语）。格林斯潘最大的问题在于将美联储至于市场交易的中心位置，过度强化美联储的控制权，将美联储塑造成了一把重剑。以至于，后来人手握重剑，胡乱杀伐。\n客观上说，格林斯潘对市场的驾驭与人心的掌控，已炉火纯青。在权力主义体系下，格林斯潘做到了极致，利用美联储的金权维持了18年的平衡术——债务、通胀、就业与金融稳定。格林斯潘执掌的美联储，是个权势滔天的交易员，但它没有彻底政治化。\n从沃尔克时代到格林斯潘时代，不论弗里德曼的货币主义还是格林斯潘的权力主义，美联储并未完全“失控”。数据显示，从1980年到金融危机前夕，美联储的资产负债表扩张相对稳定，增速比经济增速略高一些，绝对规模从1600亿美元增加到9000亿美元。这个增速基本上符合弗里德曼机械式供应货币增速以及温和式通胀理论，当然其更多是格林斯潘纵横捭阖的结果。\n美联储真正“失控”始于2008年金融危机。美联储主席伯南克开启量化宽松后，美联储的资产负债表迅速扩张到4.5万亿美元。此后十年，该表很好地诠释了中文成语：覆水难收。2020年大疫之年，美联储的总资产扩张到7.5万亿美元，创下了历史性高位。\n如今，美联储成为市场交易的中心，它的周围是美联储一手买起来的股票泡沫、房地产泡沫、债务泡沫、大宗泡沫和物价泡沫。每个交易者其实是在与美联储做交易。\n沃尔克刚担任美联储主席时说过一句话:“有时候，你不得不与魔鬼做交易。”他的继任者格林斯潘热衷于与魔鬼做交易，且长达18年之久。而如今的美联储，才是真正的魔鬼。这是美联储豹变的结果。\n所以，在沃尔克和格里斯潘之后，美联储的政治精英手握重剑迅速滑向了公地悲剧和政治堡垒。美联储目标从弗里德曼时代的维护币值稳定（通胀率）转向就业率、金融稳定以及政治化。美联储很自然就从“最后贷款人”演变为“最后的买家”，最终“豹变”成为政治堡垒。\n当下，美联储的政治精英们正在给这个政治堡垒加上一个完美的顶盖——币权统治思想。在后疫情时代，如果美联储在高债务、高泡沫、高通胀下成功达成了充分就业，同时又遏制了通胀，那么，弗里德曼的货币主义及沃尔克主义则将彻底退出历史舞台。美联储将迎来一场“完美”的胜利——从学术思想、货币权力到政治势力形成全面统治。\n但是，这股政治力量正在触发第二次“尼克松冲击”，美元将来可能需要二次寻锚。不过，美元依然会是超级货币，只要美国还是唯一的超级大国。但这绝对不是美联储政治精英们及其货币理论的胜利，他们能够如此挥霍与任性，是因为美国的家底足够雄厚。\n货币的未来之路不是货币主义，而是自由货币，但货币政治化与之南辕北辙。自由货币，可查看《全球经济正通往计划之路》，也可参考学习智本社课程《货币经济学》。最后，本文所论及美联储的问题，无关他国的好与坏。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":163479694,"gmtCreate":1623892358018,"gmtModify":1703822674854,"author":{"id":"3576608675077018","authorId":"3576608675077018","name":"Dan27","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c69c8da3ccea384aaaa27d8e999bd","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576608675077018","authorIdStr":"3576608675077018"},"htmlText":"[強]&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;","listText":"[強]&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;[強]&nbsp;","text":"[強] 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