To The Moon

The options market is pricing in a relatively muted reaction to Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) ahead of its quarterly earnings release.

According to options market pricing, investors expect the stock to move approximately 2.4% following the earnings announcement, which is lower than all implied volatility readings ahead of the past eight earnings reports, suggesting relatively moderate expectations for short-term price swings after this particular release.

However, Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) has historically shown significant variation in its earnings reactions. Of the past eight earnings releases, four saw actual stock price moves that exceeded what the options market had anticipated beforehand. Notably, after the October 2024 earnings report, the stock surged 14.4%, while the options market had only expected a 1.3% move. After the January earnings report, the stock fell 8.4%, which was also more than double the expected volatility.

Options-implied volatility reflects the market's pricing of the potential magnitude of stock price changes following an earnings release through options prices, and does not represent investors' judgment on the direction of the move, whether up or down. The implied volatility of 2.4% ahead of this Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) earnings release is notably below recent levels. Ahead of the July earnings report, the options market expected a 4.2% stock move; the April expectation was 6.4%; and January was 4.0%. The implied volatility readings ahead of the four earnings reports in 2025 were 3.3%, 3.6%, 6.1%, and 3.9%, respectively. In other words, the market is currently pricing Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) earnings volatility more conservatively than in most earnings seasons over the past two years.

But lower implied volatility does not necessarily mean the earnings results will have a smaller impact on the stock price. If actual results or management guidance differ significantly from market expectations, the stock could still break outside the range of volatility reflected by the options market beforehand.

Of the past eight earnings reports, four saw actual moves exceed market expectations. Looking back at Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) performance after the past eight earnings releases, actual stock reactions were not always consistent with options market expectations. The most striking case was October 2024. At that time, the options market had only expected a 1.3% move in Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) shares, but the stock actually rose 14.4% after the earnings release, roughly 11 times the implied volatility. In July 2025, Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) shares rose 7.3% after earnings, exceeding the 3.6% expected by the options market; in October of the same year, the stock fell 5.4%, also exceeding the previously anticipated 3.3%. In January of this year, Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) shares fell 8.4% after the results were released, while the options market had previously implied volatility of only 4.0%, with the actual decline reaching 2.1 times the expected level. By contrast, the stock reactions in April and July of this year were relatively moderate, with actual declines not exceeding options market expectations.

Historical data shows the direction of volatility is uneven, but this cannot directly predict the current earnings report. Based on the performance of the past eight earnings reports, Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) shares declined six times and rose twice. However, the two gains reached 7.3% and 14.4%, respectively, both significantly exceeding market expectations at the time. Based on the actual gains and losses after these eight earnings reports, the average absolute volatility for Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) is approximately 5.9%, notably higher than the 2.4% implied by the options market this time. At the same time, the stock price movements after the most recent two earnings reports were both below expectations, suggesting that recent earnings reactions have moderated.

These historical data indicate that Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) stock price volatility after earnings carries significant uncertainty. The currently low options-implied volatility reflects investors' pricing of the risk for this earnings report, and cannot be directly used as a prediction of actual volatility. For the earnings report on October 22, the market's final reaction will still depend on performance results, management's assessment of future business conditions, and whether relevant information exceeds investors' prior expectations.