Equities drifted lower to end the year last week, which was reduced to four trading sessions for the observance of New Year’s Day. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes returned 18% and 21%, respectively, in 2025, the third consecutive year of outsize gains.
This week brings the all-important jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on its normal release date of Friday. The delayed November jobs report was released on a Wednesday due to the government shutdown.
Other economic data on the week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index on Monday, and its Services PMI on Wednesday. We will also get the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the BLS on Wednesday as well.
Company earnings releases start to trickle in ahead of the unofficial start of fourth-quarter earnings on January 13th and 14th, when the big banks will report results.
Albertsons, Constellation Brands, and Jefferies Financial Group, the subject of a recent Barron’s column, all announce their results on Wednesday.
Monday 1/5
The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for December. Consensus estimate is for a 48.4 reading, little changed from November’s figure.
Tuesday 1/6
AAR reports second-quarter fiscal-2026 earnings.
Wednesday 1/7
Albertsons, Cal-Maine Foods, Constellation Brands, and Jefferies Financial Group announce quarterly results.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The consensus call is for 7.7 million job openings on the last business day of November, about even with the October figure. There is roughly one job opening for every unemployed person, the lowest ratio since April 2021.
The ISM releases its Services PMI for December. Expectations are for a 52.3 reading, slightly lower than in November.
Thursday 1/8
RPM International and TD Synnex release earnings.
The BLS releases its preliminary estimates for third-quarter productivity and labor costs. Economists forecast a 4.7% increase in nonfarm business productivity and a 0.5% rise in unit labor costs. That compares with gains of 3.3% and 1%, respectively, in the second quarter.
Friday 1/9
The BLS releases the jobs report for December. Economists forecast a 55,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, following a 64,000 gain in November. The unemployment rate is expected to edge lower, to 4.5% from 4.6%. Jobs growth has been sluggish, averaging 54,454 a month through the first 11 months of last year, roughly a third of the increase seen in 2024.
The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for January. Consensus estimate is for a 53.5 reading, six-tenths of a point more than in December. Consumer year-ahead inflation expectations were 4.2% in December, the lowest level in 11 months.
