To The Moon

Bitcoin briefly dropped 2.3% on Wednesday, approaching the lower end of its recent trading range and hovering around $81,700, pressured by stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data, rising expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, and a selloff in technology stocks.

Despite broad pressure across the cryptocurrency market, a latest survey shows that analysts' bullish sentiment toward Bitcoin has strengthened significantly, highlighting a divergence between short-term market performance and medium- to long-term expectations.

U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday showed consumer prices rose at their fastest pace since April, prompting traders to increase bets on further Fed rate hikes.

At the same time, semiconductor stocks came under renewed selling pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 falling 2%, while the dollar climbed to its highest level since May 2025.

Renewed inflation pressures, a stronger dollar and declining tech stocks have combined to weaken investor demand for risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market has not been spared.

However, in stark contrast to Bitcoin's recent weak performance, optimism among cryptocurrency analysts is rebounding rapidly.

A report released Wednesday by cryptocurrency research firm CryptoQuant showed that Bitcoin's 30-day analyst consensus index has jumped from -18.3 in July to 49.2, reflecting a significant rise in bullish market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the proportion of analysts bullish on Bitcoin climbed from 37% to 84%, indicating a clear shift toward a positive outlook among market researchers.

Yet the improvement in analyst sentiment has not translated into sustained price gains. In the historic cryptocurrency market crash more than a year ago, leveraged bets worth a record $19 billion were liquidated in a single day.

To this day, Bitcoin remains more than 30% below its all-time high, and repeated rebound attempts have failed to form a sustained uptrend.

At the same time, traders have been slow to rebuild the leveraged positions that previously drove the cryptocurrency market's sharp rally, leaving Bitcoin without momentum for a further breakout.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, said the current global financial market environment remains very challenging.

He noted that high inflation and high energy prices are constraining global monetary liquidity, while growing market concerns about the investment prospects of large technology companies and AI are further dampening investor appetite for risk assets.

Hougan said: "The environment in global financial markets is quite difficult right now." He believes multiple macroeconomic factors are jointly weighing on risk asset performance, making it hard for Bitcoin to escape its current volatile pattern.

Still, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin's outlook. Hougan said he believes Bitcoin bottomed in June this year and expects its price to be higher than current levels by year-end.

Beyond Bitcoin's price decline, cryptocurrency-related stocks in the U.S. market also came under broad pressure.

On Wednesday, U.S. cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase (COIN.US) fell 4.9%, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group (CRCL.US) dropped 5.6%, and Bitcoin-holding company Strategy (MSTR.US) declined 5.9%.

Overall, although bullish sentiment among cryptocurrency analysts has strengthened significantly, persistent U.S. inflation pressures, rising rate expectations and a tightening global liquidity environment are still limiting Bitcoin's short-term rebound potential.

As the market reassesses the Fed's future monetary policy path and the potential impact of the AI investment boom on risk assets, whether Bitcoin can break out of its recent trading range and launch a sustained rebound will still depend on changes in the macroeconomic environment and investor risk appetite.