240亿美元美债今晚拍卖，一个关键变化将出现

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240亿美元美债今晚拍卖，一个关键变化将出现

美港电讯2021-04-21

曾经搅动全球市场行情的美债收益率，最近似乎进入了下行通道，10年期美债收益率隔夜跌破1.56%，目前也徘徊在这个低位附近。今晚，美国财政部将拍卖240亿美元的20年期国债，市场正在密切关注。过去一年中，疫情给经济造成沉重打击，为了给大规模的刺激法案融资，美国国债拍卖次数和规模急剧增加，但是需求没能跟得上，债市呈现出明显的供过于求。例如，今年2月进行的7年期债券拍卖就录得创历史新低的投标数量，推动...

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翔锐
·2021-04-22
刺激
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lioneu
·2021-04-21
靠，無形的手又開始活動了……不會是又開始新一輪的收割吧[驚訝]
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磐石533
·2021-04-21
刺激
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Santaurora
·2021-04-21
嚇人啊
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STARTANG
·2021-04-21
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Griffiths）表示：“在疫情期间，财政部是保守的，他们迅速发债，但将现金余额维持在高位。随着经济前景仍然充满不确定性，他们可能继续这个做法。”当然，目前削减拍卖规模只是分析师的猜测，财政部尚未透露关于削减拍卖计划的任何动向，时间也还不确定。此外，一旦拜登的基建计划通过国会（此前美国政府官员透露，计国会通过该项法案的时间会在7月中旬），联邦政府将不得不借更多钱，而7月底，联邦政府可能恢复债务上限，这将让情况更加混乱。即便如此，分析师依然预计，债券发行的规模最终将得到缩减。巴克莱银行利率策略师Anshul Pradhan和Andres Mok估计，如果不改变美国财政部的拍卖规模，联邦政府将在当前财政年度中比所需的额外多筹集4000亿美元；而在接下来的两个财政年度中，政府将再多筹集另外1万亿美元。为此，巴克莱银行策略师预计，六个月内美国国债的发行量将下降10％至20％，这种趋势将使10年期债券的5月至7月的季度认购额减少至1170亿美元，11月至2022年1月的季度认购额减少至1050亿美元（下表为巴克莱分析师所预测的未来两个季度美债的拍卖规模数据）。巴克莱策略师特别指出，如果政府不削减拍卖规模，明年和后年债市将明显供过于求。道明证券也预测，如果政府增税所得的收入抵消了政府支出的成本，那么美债拍卖规模将从11月开始缩减。该行的美国利率策略负责人普里亚·米斯拉表示，美国财政部有足够的能力通过增加短期票据的投放为新支出提供资金，而非长期债券。对于投资者来说，这算是一个好消息，因为此前市场一直在试探长债供应的极限。上周五，美国财政部季度经销商推出了一份调查，问讯是否应该考虑调整拍卖规模，当日20年期美债有所抬升，收益率走低，这表明适当的调整对激活市场是有利的。如果经济情况转好，美联储缩减购买国债，那么联邦政府削减美债拍卖的决定也显得合理了。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":378660638,"gmtCreate":1619023286924,"gmtModify":1704718521479,"author":{"id":"3582067059453502","authorId":"3582067059453502","authorIdStr":"3582067059453502","name":"翔锐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582067059453502"},"htmlText":"刺激","listText":"刺激","text":"刺激","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378660638","repostId":1160039334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378896731,"gmtCreate":1619014196223,"gmtModify":1704718336476,"author":{"id":"3548807569819060","authorId":"3548807569819060","authorIdStr":"3548807569819060","name":"lioneu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164f38de123399655086489cd0d1e35d","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3548807569819060"},"htmlText":"靠，無形的手又開始活動了……不會是又開始新一輪的收割吧[驚訝]&nbsp;","listText":"靠，無形的手又開始活動了……不會是又開始新一輪的收割吧[驚訝]&nbsp;","text":"靠，無形的手又開始活動了……不會是又開始新一輪的收割吧[驚訝]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378896731","repostId":1160039334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378804816,"gmtCreate":1619013926035,"gmtModify":1704718326087,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573863078476577"},"htmlText":"刺激","listText":"刺激","text":"刺激","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378804816","repostId":1160039334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378174086,"gmtCreate":1619013580845,"gmtModify":1704718311167,"author":{"id":"3579605723262688","authorId":"3579605723262688","authorIdStr":"3579605723262688","name":"Santaurora","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a9f475016efaf44b28765b7eb47b48","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579605723262688"},"htmlText":"嚇人啊","listText":"嚇人啊","text":"嚇人啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378174086","repostId":1160039334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378074134,"gmtCreate":1618986166128,"gmtModify":1704717897787,"author":{"id":"3581922973622399","authorId":"3581922973622399","authorIdStr":"3581922973622399","name":"STARTANG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb885771f468b477695779775f1cf50","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581922973622399"},"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378074134","repostId":1160039334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}