Gold has once again captured market attention recently. Entering 2026, gold has continued its strong performance. On January 21st, COMEX gold broke through $4800 per ounce to set a new record high. Although it experienced a slight pullback on the 22nd, by 16:57 on January 22nd, the latest price stood at $4827 per ounce, demonstrating continued resilience with a gain of over 11% in just the first 22 days of the year.
Against the backdrop of gold's persistent strength, structured deposit products linked to gold have become a popular investment choice. Not only have several listed companies announced subscriptions, but some banks even temporarily sold out of their gold-bullish structured deposits.
Listed companies and individual investors are actively purchasing these gold-linked deposits. Recently, companies including Guozhi Software, Akeli, Fudan Zhangjiang, Songdu Service, Jinhai Hi-Tech, and Yixintang have announced subscriptions to gold-linked structured deposits. Enthusiasm among individual investors for such products is also rising, with some investors turning to gold structured deposits after their large-denomination certificates of deposit or time deposits mature. Currently, several banks, including Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, China Minsheng Bank, Bank of China, Bank of Jiangsu, and Bank of Hangzhou, have launched structured deposits, with quotas for some banks' gold-bullish products becoming tight at times.
A structured deposit is an innovative deposit product embedded with financial derivatives, essentially a hybrid of a "deposit + financial derivative." Typically, the principal is invested in low-risk assets like deposits, while the potential return portion is used to invest in financial derivatives to pursue higher yields.
High returns are contingent on meeting specific conditions. Despite the current strong gold price trend, the overall yield levels of bank-offered gold-linked structured deposits are not particularly outstanding. A review of several bank apps reveals that the highest annualized yield for most products does not exceed 2%, with only a few breaking this threshold, though their minimum yields are often correspondingly lower.
Taking Bank of Communications' "Wentianhui Structured Deposit (Gold Bullish 64 Days)" as an example, the product uses a "bullish shark fin" structure with an annualized yield ranging from 0.5% to 3.2%. According to the product's conditions, if the gold price during the observation period ever rises by more than 6%, the yield will be 1.7%.
If, throughout the 60-plus day observation period, the gold price remains below 106% of the price on the product's start date (January 29th), meaning it does not rise by more than 6%, then the yield depends on whether the gold price on the observation date (March 31st) is higher or lower than the start date price. If the observation date price is lower, the yield is only 0.5%. If it is higher, the yield is calculated using the formula "minimum yield 0.5% + participation rate 45% * gold price increase." The maximum yield, approaching 3.2%, occurs when the price increase is close to 6%.
It's clear that while the maximum yield of 3.2% appears attractive, it requires specific conditions: the gold price increase must not exceed 6%. Within this sub-6% range, a larger increase yields a higher return. If the increase exceeds 6%, the yield is 1.7%, which is still advantageous compared to standard deposit rates. The worst-case scenario is if the gold price on the observation date is lower than the start date price, resulting in a mere 0.5% yield.
Although gold prices are rising sharply now, who can guarantee they won't fall in two months? Therefore, when selecting a structured deposit, don't focus solely on the maximum yield; also consider how achievable the conditions for that maximum yield are, and ensure the minimum yield isn't too low, so that if the bet on the direction is wrong, the return isn't dismal.
Another example is Industrial Bank's "Juying Gold - Gold AU9999 Bullish Ternary Structured Deposit," which features a ternary structure with a 94-day term. If the final observation price increases by 16.9% or more compared to the initial price, the annualized yield is 2.02%. If the final price is between 87.15% and 116.9% of the initial price, the yield is 1.77%. If the final price is below 87.15% of the initial price, the investor receives only the minimum annualized yield of 1%. The benefit here is that regardless of whether the direction is guessed correctly, the annualized yield is at least 1%, similar to deposit rates for the same term. However, one must assess whether achieving a gain exceeding 16.9% is realistic.
Comparatively (ignoring the 30-day term difference), achieving a yield around 1.7% requires slightly less stringent conditions with this product, as a yield of 1.77% is attainable as long as the gold price doesn't fall by more than 12.85%.
Ultra-short-term products are more susceptible to volatility. To attract investors, some banks have launched ultra-short-term structured deposit products with maturities of only about one week, offering maximum annualized yields mostly between 1.5% and 1.7%.
However, short-term products also face market volatility risks. The observation period for such products is typically around two to three days or five days (varying by product). Since the fourth quarter of last year, the volatility of London gold (XAUUSD) has significantly intensified, with single-day drops exceeding 4% on December 29th and October 21st last year.
If a product sets a narrow range for price increases or decreases, it becomes easier to trigger the minimum yield condition. For instance, if a product stipulates that a drop exceeding 2% results in the minimum yield, this lower limit is more easily breached during periods of high market volatility.
Read the terms carefully and avoid blindly chasing high yields. In summary, the following points should be considered when choosing a structured deposit: 1. Structure Tiers: Most products have two or three yield tiers corresponding to different gold price ranges. 2. Observation Method: Some only consider the final price, while others monitor whether a critical point is breached during the observation period. 3. Term Details: Pay attention to the currency, the underlying asset, and the bullish/bearish direction; some high-yield products may be linked to foreign exchange or stock indices. 4. View Maximum Yield Rationally: Also consider how easy it is to achieve. For example, if the highest yield requires the gold price to stay within a specific range, a narrow range makes it harder to achieve, meaning the maximum yield may not be easily attained. Generally, products where the conditions for the high yield are easier to achieve and correspond to a higher return are preferable. 5. Value the Guaranteed Return: Unless you have a clear, firm view on gold price direction, it's advisable to choose products with a relatively higher guaranteed return (i.e., minimum yield), so that even if the bet is wrong, the yield isn't too low.
Structured Deposits vs. Wealth Management Products: Capital Preservation is the Key Advantage. Compared to non-principal-guaranteed structured wealth management products, the core advantage of structured deposits lies in the safety of the principal. Statistics from Caixiaoquan show that among gold-linked structured wealth management products that matured last year (counting different share classes separately), 40% were terminated early. In terms of performance, 18% achieved an annualized return exceeding 4% since inception, and 40% exceeded 3%, but a minority yielded less than 1%.
Caixiaoquan suggests that investors interested in gold-linked products, if they seek capital preservation, hope to earn a slightly higher return than deposit rates, and have their own view on gold's direction, could consider gold-linked structured deposits. If they wish to aim for potentially higher returns and can accept the possibility of very low yields if the directional bet fails, they might also try gold-linked structured wealth management products. For those with higher risk tolerance, directly purchasing gold ETFs is an option.
Institutions remain bullish on gold's medium to long-term trend. Despite recent high-level fluctuations in gold prices, several institutions remain optimistic about its medium to long-term outlook. A Huaxi Securities research report points out that influenced by expectations of Fed rate cuts, instability in US dollar credibility, the US midterm elections, and geopolitical uncertainty, gold prices are expected to rise further. Referencing historical patterns, the gold price increase in 2026 could range between 10% and 35%.
JPMorgan Chase raised its gold price outlook this month, predicting prices could reach $5000 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, with potential to challenge $6000 in the long term. UBS also raised its 2026阶段性 target price from $4500 to $5000.
Special Disclaimer: The products mentioned herein are presented solely as examples based on publicly available market information, aiming to help investors better understand specific scenarios and the characteristics of such products. This does not constitute any form of investment recommendation or trading advice. Investing involves risks. Investors must make independent judgments based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance and decide autonomously whether to participate in related product investments. The author and publisher assume no responsibility for any losses incurred from investment operations based on the information in this article.
