Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright

MarketWatch2021-05-21

It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...

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Jarenng
·2021-05-21
No point...
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hohok
·2021-05-21
Like n comment pls. Tks!
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- hohok:
  tks
  2021-05-22
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- hohok:
  ok
  2021-05-21
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- cozyli:
  done..pls reply..thks
  2021-05-21
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SGArchiPH
·2021-05-21
Why like that? So, how?
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l3enji
·2021-05-21
Can i get a reply pls
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- SWKSMY:
  [财迷]
  2021-05-21
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大时代的刘青云
·2021-05-21
Just another bold estimation where who will believe?
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Kok
·2021-05-21
Pls like n comment. Tks!
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- Kok:
  sure
  2021-05-21
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- zhen130:
  Pls reply
  2021-05-21
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Hayz
·2021-05-21
Not to worry, a soon to come correction will take care of all the #$@&?) calculations. Once money printing stops, we will see the actual value.
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HOTBE
·2021-05-21
Hopefully it won’t happen next 10 years
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Slee49
·2021-05-21
?
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JY00
·2021-05-21
Comment and like please... thank you!
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- zhen130:
  Pls reply
  2021-05-21
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Kendra96
·2021-05-21
Like and comment
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- hohok:
  reply my comment pls
  2021-05-21
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andybian
·2021-05-21
Everything is too pricey now. Only stocks that are low PE of <15 is good value? But in market these good value companies has unpredictable & cyclical earnings. Good luck to buy cheap and hope for phenomenon growth on those already proven ultra slow growth companies. I rather choose Google.
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andybian
·2021-05-21
Reports has been indicating Aapl, Googl, Amzn being too expensive since 5 years ago, and still look at their earning growth and stock price now. Perhaps the only time they think price meets value is March 2020. Come on seriously, how often you will see & hope for a world diaster to buy great companies cheap? Why not let's hope LV factories get flooded with toxic & water so I can buy their wallet at $10?Noise to create news so others can buy cheap? Hmm.
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- TheMilkyWay:
  I just bought GOOG & price is dropping but only for me to buy cheap again if I can afford! Even experts who do the maths are saying it’s not overvalued despite the ratios cos just look at it.
  2021-05-22
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MagPie
·2021-05-21
Good insight
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The_scalper
·2021-05-21
Too pricey
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GCL08
·2021-05-21
Interesting analysis. Thank you
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All in Tesla
·2021-05-21
Companies at one stage will reach maturity and growth. I forsee Tesla will grow even bigger not just on EV market but on other potential ?
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- TheMilkyWay:
  Agree but I see Google as a rather safe bet. And it will grow. Maybe not too the moon kinda growth but still a huge growth compared to blue chip growth. Rewards still high.
  2021-05-22
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- TSLAtothemoon:
  agree
  2021-05-21
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tungleh
·2021-05-21
Every company has its ups and downs, nothing strange. These big companies still expensive to buy in for me haha...
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bzlim
·2021-05-21
Please short sell it in bulk down so I can buy in. Thanks!
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UTOtrader
·2021-05-21
Sell!
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Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOGL":"谷歌A",".DJI":"道琼斯","MSFT":"微软",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AAPL":"苹果",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GOOG":"谷歌"},"translate_title":"为什么微软、亚马逊、谷歌、苹果和其他价格高昂的成长股的前景并不那么光明","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"MSFT":0.9},"content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":139399713,"gmtCreate":1621589383932,"gmtModify":1704360157642,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579784300187475","authorIdStr":"3579784300187475"},"htmlText":"No point...","listText":"No point...","text":"No point...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139399713","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139304848,"gmtCreate":1621589204484,"gmtModify":1704360152950,"author":{"id":"3581844295426037","authorId":"3581844295426037","name":"hohok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ae72338572431c58f911b40ae0f930","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581844295426037","authorIdStr":"3581844295426037"},"htmlText":"Like n comment pls. Tks!","listText":"Like n comment pls. Tks!","text":"Like n comment pls. Tks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139304848","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4411952,"gmtCreate":1621670915780,"gmtModify":1680790294922,"authorId":3581844295426037,"author":{"id":3581844295426037,"idStr":"3581844295426037","authorId":3581844295426037,"name":"hohok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ae72338572431c58f911b40ae0f930","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139304848,"type":1,"supId":4402454,"prevId":0,"content":"tks","text":"tks","html":"tks"},{"id":4404507,"gmtCreate":1621609302139,"gmtModify":1680790158297,"authorId":3581844295426037,"author":{"id":3581844295426037,"idStr":"3581844295426037","authorId":3581844295426037,"name":"hohok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ae72338572431c58f911b40ae0f930","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139304848,"type":1,"supId":4402454,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":4402454,"gmtCreate":1621596579794,"gmtModify":1680790122926,"authorId":3574167470846346,"author":{"id":3574167470846346,"idStr":"3574167470846346","authorId":3574167470846346,"name":"cozyli","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/509ef7c09d0624801748249c5a3e0117","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139304848,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done..pls reply..thks","text":"done..pls reply..thks","html":"done..pls reply..thks"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139975819,"gmtCreate":1621588553331,"gmtModify":1704360137387,"author":{"id":"3583437800071706","authorId":"3583437800071706","name":"SGArchiPH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c9358177dc07efc1d46ddc34d7912c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583437800071706","authorIdStr":"3583437800071706"},"htmlText":"Why like that? So, how?","listText":"Why like that? So, how?","text":"Why like that? So, how?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139975819","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139948299,"gmtCreate":1621587234111,"gmtModify":1704360120848,"author":{"id":"3576842974991593","authorId":"3576842974991593","name":"l3enji","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6737dcbd83a51cc07a69c1a7321191","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576842974991593","authorIdStr":"3576842974991593"},"htmlText":"Can i get a reply pls","listText":"Can i get a reply pls","text":"Can i get a reply pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139948299","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4401429,"gmtCreate":1621587876927,"gmtModify":1680790108010,"authorId":3578919493159085,"author":{"id":3578919493159085,"idStr":"3578919493159085","authorId":3578919493159085,"name":"SWKSMY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dd9d778d53a74885b557589a2af98ca","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139948299,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>[财迷] </p>","text":"<p>[财迷] </p>","html":"<p>[财迷] </p>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139966788,"gmtCreate":1621585077244,"gmtModify":1704360080068,"author":{"id":"3573121978215252","authorId":"3573121978215252","name":"大时代的刘青云","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d9f5db4cc02ec3ab0d48cb2bba6fbf","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573121978215252","authorIdStr":"3573121978215252"},"htmlText":"Just another bold estimation where who will believe?","listText":"Just another bold estimation where who will believe?","text":"Just another bold estimation where who will believe?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139966788","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139918061,"gmtCreate":1621583646953,"gmtModify":1704360049491,"author":{"id":"3560204717545571","authorId":"3560204717545571","name":"Kok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc25bb5380f85af49509ed68d9a3d8f","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3560204717545571","authorIdStr":"3560204717545571"},"htmlText":"Pls like n comment. Tks!","listText":"Pls like n comment. Tks!","text":"Pls like n comment. Tks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139918061","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4402459,"gmtCreate":1621596620547,"gmtModify":1680790127711,"authorId":3560204717545571,"author":{"id":3560204717545571,"idStr":"3560204717545571","authorId":3560204717545571,"name":"Kok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc25bb5380f85af49509ed68d9a3d8f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.02.18","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.12","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139918061,"type":1,"supId":4400904,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>sure</u>","text":"<u>sure</u>","html":"<u>sure</u>"},{"id":4400904,"gmtCreate":1621583912606,"gmtModify":1680790102330,"authorId":3570360623104656,"author":{"id":3570360623104656,"idStr":"3570360623104656","authorId":3570360623104656,"name":"zhen130","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/553509e2e649eaf0d39f267a7e6de1a1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139918061,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls <u>reply</u>","text":"Pls <u>reply</u>","html":"Pls <u>reply</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139936267,"gmtCreate":1621583007259,"gmtModify":1704360038320,"author":{"id":"3576709204489965","authorId":"3576709204489965","name":"Hayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87598e3b13004920f673918b320782e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576709204489965","authorIdStr":"3576709204489965"},"htmlText":"Not to worry, a soon&nbsp;to come correction will take care of all the #$@&amp;?) calculations.&nbsp; Once money printing stops, we will see the actual value.","listText":"Not to worry, a soon&nbsp;to come correction will take care of all the #$@&amp;?) calculations.&nbsp; Once money printing stops, we will see the actual value.","text":"Not to worry, a soon to come correction will take care of all the #$@&?) calculations. Once money printing stops, we will see the actual value.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139936267","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139933699,"gmtCreate":1621582786411,"gmtModify":1704360034577,"author":{"id":"3576325295778787","authorId":"3576325295778787","name":"HOTBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f535d0d25c5b9833a0f75cd652fbbcd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576325295778787","authorIdStr":"3576325295778787"},"htmlText":"Hopefully it won’t happen next 10 years","listText":"Hopefully it won’t happen next 10 years","text":"Hopefully it won’t happen next 10 years","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139933699","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139992745,"gmtCreate":1621582188087,"gmtModify":1704360025822,"author":{"id":"3581993357014262","authorId":"3581993357014262","name":"Slee49","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4a9c556617a3ec3446f5c1c667b4aa0","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3581993357014262","authorIdStr":"3581993357014262"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139992745","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139992046,"gmtCreate":1621581992885,"gmtModify":1704360025176,"author":{"id":"3581568450429470","authorId":"3581568450429470","name":"JY00","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e17ebb891eb376aff5c7eb5088602f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581568450429470","authorIdStr":"3581568450429470"},"htmlText":"Comment and like please... thank you!","listText":"Comment and like please... thank you!","text":"Comment and like please... thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139992046","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4400907,"gmtCreate":1621583925037,"gmtModify":1680790099726,"authorId":3570360623104656,"author":{"id":3570360623104656,"idStr":"3570360623104656","authorId":3570360623104656,"name":"zhen130","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/553509e2e649eaf0d39f267a7e6de1a1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139992046,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls reply","text":"Pls reply","html":"Pls reply"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139996415,"gmtCreate":1621581991737,"gmtModify":1704360025013,"author":{"id":"3582771898046048","authorId":"3582771898046048","name":"Kendra96","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ff91316ee8de797a1d13b29518fa98","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582771898046048","authorIdStr":"3582771898046048"},"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139996415","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4401610,"gmtCreate":1621589239984,"gmtModify":1680790109290,"authorId":3581844295426037,"author":{"id":3581844295426037,"idStr":"3581844295426037","authorId":3581844295426037,"name":"hohok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ae72338572431c58f911b40ae0f930","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139996415,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"reply my comment pls","text":"reply my comment pls","html":"reply my comment pls"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139993050,"gmtCreate":1621581620470,"gmtModify":1704360019328,"author":{"id":"3579868315520587","authorId":"3579868315520587","name":"andybian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c74644b433cb4c92e518b5e3d2a2cf1","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579868315520587","authorIdStr":"3579868315520587"},"htmlText":"Everything is too pricey now. Only stocks that are low PE of &lt;15 is good value? But in market these good value companies&nbsp;has unpredictable &amp; cyclical earnings. Good luck to buy cheap and hope for phenomenon growth on those already proven ultra slow growth companies. I rather choose Google.&nbsp;","listText":"Everything is too pricey now. Only stocks that are low PE of &lt;15 is good value? But in market these good value companies&nbsp;has unpredictable &amp; cyclical earnings. Good luck to buy cheap and hope for phenomenon growth on those already proven ultra slow growth companies. I rather choose Google.&nbsp;","text":"Everything is too pricey now. Only stocks that are low PE of <15 is good value? But in market these good value companies has unpredictable & cyclical earnings. Good luck to buy cheap and hope for phenomenon growth on those already proven ultra slow growth companies. I rather choose Google.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139993050","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139990056,"gmtCreate":1621581455975,"gmtModify":1704360017385,"author":{"id":"3579868315520587","authorId":"3579868315520587","name":"andybian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c74644b433cb4c92e518b5e3d2a2cf1","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579868315520587","authorIdStr":"3579868315520587"},"htmlText":"Reports has been indicating Aapl, Googl, Amzn being too expensive since 5 years ago, and still look at their earning growth&nbsp;and stock price now.&nbsp;Perhaps the only time they think price&nbsp;meets value is March 2020. Come on seriously, how often you will see &amp; hope for a world diaster to buy great companies cheap? Why not let's hope LV factories get flooded with toxic &amp; water so I can buy their wallet at $10?Noise to create news so others can buy cheap? Hmm.&nbsp;","listText":"Reports has been indicating Aapl, Googl, Amzn being too expensive since 5 years ago, and still look at their earning growth&nbsp;and stock price now.&nbsp;Perhaps the only time they think price&nbsp;meets value is March 2020. Come on seriously, how often you will see &amp; hope for a world diaster to buy great companies cheap? Why not let's hope LV factories get flooded with toxic &amp; water so I can buy their wallet at $10?Noise to create news so others can buy cheap? Hmm.&nbsp;","text":"Reports has been indicating Aapl, Googl, Amzn being too expensive since 5 years ago, and still look at their earning growth and stock price now. Perhaps the only time they think price meets value is March 2020. Come on seriously, how often you will see & hope for a world diaster to buy great companies cheap? Why not let's hope LV factories get flooded with toxic & water so I can buy their wallet at $10?Noise to create news so others can buy cheap? Hmm.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139990056","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4405616,"gmtCreate":1621623983610,"gmtModify":1680790179420,"authorId":3583318222987864,"author":{"id":3583318222987864,"idStr":"3583318222987864","authorId":3583318222987864,"name":"TheMilkyWay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/190d59bcbcc876e15543cbd430d8c1f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139990056,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I just bought GOOG &amp; price is dropping but only for me to buy cheap again if I can afford! Even experts who do the maths are saying it’s not overvalued despite the ratios cos just look at it.","text":"I just bought GOOG &amp; price is dropping but only for me to buy cheap again if I can afford! Even experts who do the maths are saying it’s not overvalued despite the ratios cos just look at it.","html":"I just bought GOOG &amp; price is dropping but only for me to buy cheap again if I can afford! Even experts who do the maths are saying it’s not overvalued despite the ratios cos just look at it."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139905924,"gmtCreate":1621581185568,"gmtModify":1704360012524,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3573728905231423","authorIdStr":"3573728905231423"},"htmlText":"Good insight","listText":"Good insight","text":"Good insight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139905924","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139075943,"gmtCreate":1621580046582,"gmtModify":1704359998516,"author":{"id":"3579590433924918","authorId":"3579590433924918","name":"The_scalper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3fede485fa71d42dc4ea08960ab3e00","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3579590433924918","authorIdStr":"3579590433924918"},"htmlText":"Too pricey","listText":"Too pricey","text":"Too pricey","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139075943","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139070692,"gmtCreate":1621579074516,"gmtModify":1704359988941,"author":{"id":"3579045920422452","authorId":"3579045920422452","name":"GCL08","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3433a6063e0b2ab82ed571a0790eb790","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3579045920422452","authorIdStr":"3579045920422452"},"htmlText":"Interesting analysis. Thank you","listText":"Interesting analysis. Thank you","text":"Interesting analysis. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139070692","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139045781,"gmtCreate":1621578769443,"gmtModify":1704359985706,"author":{"id":"3577580366301047","authorId":"3577580366301047","name":"All in Tesla","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8db11f6e6a9a2a52850e734188850dc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577580366301047","authorIdStr":"3577580366301047"},"htmlText":"Companies at one stage will reach maturity and growth. I forsee Tesla will grow even bigger not just on EV market but on other potential ?","listText":"Companies at one stage will reach maturity and growth. I forsee Tesla will grow even bigger not just on EV market but on other potential ?","text":"Companies at one stage will reach maturity and growth. I forsee Tesla will grow even bigger not just on EV market but on other potential ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139045781","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4405618,"gmtCreate":1621624104738,"gmtModify":1680790181106,"authorId":3583318222987864,"author":{"id":3583318222987864,"idStr":"3583318222987864","authorId":3583318222987864,"name":"TheMilkyWay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/190d59bcbcc876e15543cbd430d8c1f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139045781,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Agree but I see Google as a rather safe bet. And it will grow. Maybe not too the moon kinda growth but still a huge growth compared to blue chip growth. Rewards still high.","text":"Agree but I see Google as a rather safe bet. And it will grow. Maybe not too the moon kinda growth but still a huge growth compared to blue chip growth. Rewards still high.","html":"Agree but I see Google as a rather safe bet. And it will grow. Maybe not too the moon kinda growth but still a huge growth compared to blue chip growth. Rewards still high."},{"id":4400993,"gmtCreate":1621584671202,"gmtModify":1680790096778,"authorId":3581496657430027,"author":{"id":3581496657430027,"idStr":"3581496657430027","authorId":3581496657430027,"name":"TSLAtothemoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7eb252b1bc52ab7567a6f6dbc62f92e","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.11","exceedPercentage":"93.73%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":139045781,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"agree","text":"agree","html":"agree"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139041054,"gmtCreate":1621578428978,"gmtModify":1704359978227,"author":{"id":"3581840130059040","authorId":"3581840130059040","name":"tungleh","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/e7cd8f0c265e9dabe49dea7b97ffe6b9","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3581840130059040","authorIdStr":"3581840130059040"},"htmlText":"Every company has its ups and downs, nothing strange. These big companies still expensive to buy in for me&nbsp;haha...&nbsp;","listText":"Every company has its ups and downs, nothing strange. These big companies still expensive to buy in for me&nbsp;haha...&nbsp;","text":"Every company has its ups and downs, nothing strange. These big companies still expensive to buy in for me haha...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139041054","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139049825,"gmtCreate":1621578207467,"gmtModify":1704359975469,"author":{"id":"3572436349218639","authorId":"3572436349218639","name":"bzlim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2aafaf14823285f7393917b6ff4f54","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572436349218639","authorIdStr":"3572436349218639"},"htmlText":"Please short sell it in bulk down so I can buy in. Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Please short sell it in bulk down so I can buy in. Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Please short sell it in bulk down so I can buy in. Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139049825","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":139058605,"gmtCreate":1621577641607,"gmtModify":1704359965754,"author":{"id":"3574547619690492","authorId":"3574547619690492","name":"UTOtrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82be6befb29ac8516e463638d3f659d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574547619690492","authorIdStr":"3574547619690492"},"htmlText":"Sell!","listText":"Sell!","text":"Sell!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139058605","repostId":1161150268,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index&nbsp;that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google&nbsp;and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the&nbsp;increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&amp;P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems&nbsp;stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&amp;P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":194,"commentSize":76,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}