The global precious metals market is experiencing a historic surge, with all major metals reaching new record highs simultaneously. On December 26, Wind data showed that spot gold (London spot gold) once touched $4,549.96 per ounce during the session, closing at $4,532.505 per ounce, up 1.19%. The cumulative gain for the year reached 72%, setting a new record for annual gains since 1979. COMEX gold followed suit, rising 1.31% to $4,562 per ounce. Silver's rally was even more dramatic, with spot silver (London spot silver) breaking through $79 per ounce, surging over 10% in a single day. It gained 18.06% for the week, bringing its year-to-date increase to a staggering 174%. COMEX silver futures skyrocketed 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, also accumulating an 18.06% weekly gain. Spot platinum surged 10.39% to $2,459.5 per ounce, with a massive 172% increase for the year.
The precious metals market exploded across the board during the New York trading session on December 26. COMEX gold futures rose 1.31% to $4,562 per ounce, accumulating a 3.98% gain for the week. Spot gold reached an intraday high of $4,549.96 per ounce before closing at $4,532.505 per ounce, up 1.19%. COMEX silver futures surged 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, while spot silver climbed above $79 per ounce to close at $79.196 per ounce. Spot platinum jumped 10.31% to $2,450.91 per ounce, recording a remarkable 24.31% weekly gain. Domestic markets in China also boiled over. The main Shanghai gold futures contract performed strongly, quoted at 1,018.1 yuan per gram during the night session on December 26, up 0.17%. The main Shanghai silver futures contract showed even more迅猛 momentum, closing the night session up 6.03% at 19,204 yuan per kilogram, setting a new record closing high. Bolstered by a gap-up opening and significant strength in overseas NYMEX platinum prices, the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the upside limit immediately upon opening on December 26. Although the gains narrowed slightly later, it still registered a significant increase of 9.29%, closing at 705.30 yuan per gram and successfully breaching the key 700 yuan psychological level. Palladium, however, experienced a rally followed by a pullback, ultimately closing down 2.08% at 515.65 yuan per gram. The gold jewelry market witnessed unprecedented fervor, with prices from leading brands collectively climbing. On December 27, the price of pure gold jewelry from Chow Tai Fook, Chow Tai Seng, and Lao Feng Xiang all reached 1,413 yuan per gram. Chow Sang Sang's pure gold jewelry was priced at 1,407 yuan per gram, while Emperor Jewellery's pure gold jewelry reached 1,411 yuan per gram.
Analysts point out that the global precious metals feast is driven by a deep resonance of multiple factors. Xia Yingying, an analyst at Nanhua Futures, identified core drivers across three key layers. Firstly, the US Dollar Index has fallen approximately 10%, the Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts and technically expanded its balance sheet, trade tariff policies have intensified de-dollarization trends, and the US fiscal sustainability crisis has weakened confidence in the dollar. Concurrently, the silver market is experiencing a structural squeeze, with global inventories being shuffled around to meet demand. Soaring demand from India's Diwali festival, rigid industrial needs, and a surge in futures deliveries have caused spot premiums to spike dramatically. Furthermore, investment demand has replaced central bank gold buying as the dominant force, further pushing prices higher. Liu Yuxuan, a senior analyst at Guotai Junan Futures, dissected gold's rally into alpha drivers and beta drivers. "Alpha drivers are pricing factors related to monetary policy and interest rates, while beta drivers are factors that strengthen gold's monetary attributes. Their impact elasticity is completely different within this cycle." She emphasized that given the resilience of the US economy and the lagging pace of rate cuts, the boost from alpha drivers is limited. Instead, marginal changes in beta drivers are the "real factors driving gold prices beyond expectations," especially after prices hit new highs, making capital more sensitive to beta drivers. Regarding silver, Liu Yuxuan stated that "spot supply issues represent a medium-to-long-term contradiction that will continue to support price increases." This includes persistent increases in ETF holdings during the rate-cutting cycle, limited ability for substantial inventory releases from Chinese and US reserves due to constraints, and insufficient supply rigidity from mines that rely on by-product production. Another overseas analyst also believes that powerful support from the supply side underpins silver's price rise. Globally, high-quality silver resources from independent mines are becoming increasingly scarce, while industrial demand from manufacturing sectors like solar panels remains robust. Concentrated hoarding of physical silver by retail investors further diverts metal originally intended for industrial use, exacerbating market tightness. Jerry Chen, a senior analyst at Gain Capital Group (Jia Sheng Group), stated that common driving factors also include Trump's tariff policies triggering large-scale migration of global precious metal inventories to the US, leading to rapidly depleting exchange inventories worldwide and even sparking liquidity crises. This has催生出 short-squeeze scenarios and extreme speculative sentiment. Persistent supply deficits and safe-haven demand have added fuel to the fire, while the low liquidity environment towards year-end provided favorable conditions for sharp price increases. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions are another significant factor. On the news front, according to a December 26 CCTV News report, the Nigerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Nigeria and the United States conducted security cooperation and intelligence collaboration, carrying out airstrikes to precisely target "terrorist objectives" in northwestern Nigeria. Separately, on December 26 local time, according to Yemeni security officials, Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes on military sites belonging to the Southern Transitional Council in the Hadramawt Governorate in southeastern Yemen.
Based on current data, spot gold's annual gain for 2025 is poised to set a new record for yearly increases since 1979. The critical question is: how long will this epic surge last? Institutions generally acknowledge the long-term bull market logic but anticipate significant divergence in the magnitude and pace of gains between gold and silver. For gold, the upward trend remains intact, but the pace of gains may moderate. Xia Yingying judges that precious metals will maintain a pattern of being easier to rise than fall under the triple narrative of the Federal Reserve's politicization, the erosion of US dollar credit, and the silver spot supply crisis. The weakening US dollar system continues to enhance gold's allocation value. The Fed faces a crisis of independence, the 2026 midterm elections will pressure it towards easing, the erosion of dollar credit is accelerating de-dollarization, and emerging economy central banks continue to increase gold reserves. Liu Yuxuan provided specific price targets, projecting a high around $4,700 per ounce for gold in 2026, with a core range of $4,400-$4,500 per ounce, and strong support below at $4,100-$4,200 per ounce. She noted that fiscal and monetary expansion in 2026 will benefit precious metals, but the impact will be moderate. Reduced volatility from political disturbances may weaken safe-haven momentum, shifting trading focus towards the economy and policy. CITIC Securities believes gold prices in 2026 are expected to continue benefiting from the liquidity宽松 atmosphere brought by Fed rate cuts, with global gold ETF inflows acting as a significant source of buying pressure. Potential geopolitical risks and safe-haven sentiment triggered by trade conflicts will continue to support gold prices. Long-term trends like de-dollarization and central bank gold buying form a solid foundation for price increases. They forecast gold prices will hit new highs again in 2026. However, considering the significant gains in 2025 and the fact that the aforementioned factors are already partially priced in, they expect the rate of increase for gold prices in 2026 may narrow to 10%-15%, with prices potentially冲击 $5,000 per ounce for the year. For silver, Xia Yingying believes the supply-demand矛盾 will intensify further. Globally deliverable inventories are at historically low levels, and potential US tariff hikes could worsen the shortage. Demand from photovoltaics, AI data centers, new energy vehicles, and Indian consumption provides rigid support. Low supply elasticity from mine output makes prices extremely sensitive to demand shocks, suggesting silver may still outperform gold. In Liu Yuxuan's view, silver has become a premium long allocation asset, and its performance in 2026 is bound to be more dazzling. Firstly, the long-term allocation logic for precious metals remains unchanged. Secondly, spot supply矛盾 is becoming normalized, and any improvement in risk sentiment could release its high elasticity. Thirdly, the logic of improving macro liquidity outweighs economic demand fundamentals; silver is further from its fundamental pricing and has less 'baggage' holding back its rise. She sets her first price target for silver's 2026 high at $75 per ounce, expecting stronger drivers in the first half of the year than the second half. CITIC Futures, in an interview, pointed out that the silver squeeze trade is unlikely to ease rapidly in the short term. London silver lease rates remain persistently high. Until US tariffs on silver are finalized, hoarding demand is unlikely to decline significantly. The structural tightness in the spot market is expected to repeatedly affect the market. As interest rate cuts gradually drive fundamental repairs, coupled with global fiscal resonance and expansion, the global economy might transition from a soft landing to a moderate recovery in 2026. Pro-cyclical assets would benefit more, with silver exhibiting greater upside elasticity.
As precious metal prices soar to new historic peaks, many institutions are beginning to issue warnings about potential short-term risks. On December 26 itself, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) issued a risk warning, stating, "Recent international conditions are complex and volatile, fluctuations in non-ferrous and precious metal varieties are significant. All relevant units are requested to take corresponding measures, advise investors to implement risk prevention, invest rationally, and jointly maintain stable market operation." Simultaneously, the SHFE issued a notice stating that, starting from the settlement after market close on Tuesday, December 30, 2025, the price limit for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 15%. The margin requirement for hedging positions will be adjusted to 16%, and the margin for speculative positions will be adjusted to 17%. After trading resumes on Monday, January 5, 2026, starting from the settlement after the first trading day without a one-sided market, the gold futures contracts AU2601, AU2602, AU2603, AU2604 and silver futures contracts AG2601, AG2602, AG2603, AG2604 will maintain their current price limits and margin requirements. For all other futures contracts, the price limits and margin requirements will revert to their previous levels. Joni Teves, a precious metals analyst at UBS, considers the scale of this rally "somewhat偏离正常" and stated it is difficult to pinpoint an exact trigger that fully explains such a strong and rapid upward move. For instance, Teves believes recent international political news further highlights gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. The rise in platinum prices coincides with substantial ETF inflows, tightening in the forward market, and the launch of platinum futures trading on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Silver, meanwhile, is supported by copper prices and has "entered uncharted territory." Teves emphasized that short-term risks in precious metals trading have increased noticeably, stating, "Given that gold prices have risen to new highs, the risk of short-term investors taking profits is also significant." Xia Yingying believes gold needs to be wary of correction pressure stemming from monetary policy easing falling short of expectations. The main risks for silver are high volatility and profit-taking pressure. Xia Yingying stressed: "After silver's暴涨, volatility has significantly amplified, and the risk of investment profit-taking is accumulating. Timing becomes even more critical." "We caution that metals like silver have relatively smaller market sizes and poorer liquidity compared to gold. If gold experiences volatility next year, the correction risk for silver could be even greater. We advise implementing proper risk control and avoiding盲目追涨." China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) pointed out that with gold prices already detached from fundamental indicators and model fits, market volatility may increase noticeably. They suggest de-emphasizing point predictions for gold prices and focusing more on the timing of asset trend changes. The gold bull market in 2026 might not be a one-way street but could experience fluctuations following Fed policy and US economic developments.
