New Zealand Holds Rates, Sees Ongoing Need for Tight Policy

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New Zealand Holds Rates, Sees Ongoing Need for Tight Policy

Bloomberg04-10

RBNZ says cash rate at 5.5% should return inflation to targetNotes domestic economy ‘continues to evolve as anticipated’New Zealand’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight ...

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·04-10
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The central bank is reluctant to entertain a pivot to monetary easing because inflation at 4.7% is still well above its 2% goal, and policymakers are concerned that elevated inflation expectations could become entrenched.</p><p>The New Zealand dollar rose after the rate decision before retracing to be little changed. It bought 60.59 US cents at 2:14 p.m. in Wellington.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Today’s decision is an interim review rather than a quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, so the bank didn’t publish fresh economic forecasts and there is no news conference with Governor Adrian Orr.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In an unusually short statement, the RBNZ said the economy “continues to evolve as anticipated.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In February, the RBNZ forecast that inflation would fall back into the 1-3% target band by the third quarter this year and slow to the 2% midpoint by the end of next year.</p><h3 id=\"id_52113096\" style=\"text-align: start;\">No Cuts Until 2025?</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Still, it projected then that it wouldn’t start easing policy until 2025, saying it doesn’t want to lengthen the time it takes to bring inflation to heel.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Globally, while there are differences across regions, economic growth remains below trend and is expected to remain subdued,” the RBNZ said today. “However, most major central banks are cautious about easing monetary policy given the ongoing risk of persistent inflation.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Several economists are tipping New Zealand’s recession continued in the first quarter and that unemployment will rise throughout 2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research yesterday warned there’s a risk of a hard landing for the economy after its quarterly survey revealed firms are facing squeezed profits, prompting them to invest less and fire workers. The survey also showed fewer firms intended to raise prices.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Most economists expect the first rate cut will occur in August, although Westpac Banking Corp. and ANZ Bank don’t see reductions starting until 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Investors are pricing two cuts before the end of this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Central banks around the world are focused on how quickly inflation is slowing and when they can begin easing.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Swiss National Bank unveiled a surprise rate cut last month — the first by a Group-of-10 central bank — while the Reserve Bank of Australia has stepped back from threatening to hike further. The Federal Reserve continues to signal as many as three cuts this year, although when any easing will start remains unclear.</p><p>A Fed cut this year might allow the RBNZ to ease earlier than it projects by pushing up the New Zealand dollar and suppressing imported inflation, Chief Economist Paul Conway said last month.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Zealand Holds Rates, Sees Ongoing Need for Tight Policy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Zealand Holds Rates, Sees Ongoing Need for Tight Policy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-10 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/new-zealand-holds-rates-sees-ongoing-need-for-tight-policy><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>RBNZ says cash rate at 5.5% should return inflation to targetNotes domestic economy ‘continues to evolve as anticipated’New Zealand’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/new-zealand-holds-rates-sees-ongoing-need-for-tight-policy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/new-zealand-holds-rates-sees-ongoing-need-for-tight-policy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162008597","content_text":"RBNZ says cash rate at 5.5% should return inflation to targetNotes domestic economy ‘continues to evolve as anticipated’New Zealand’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight meeting and said they need to remain high for some time to ensure inflation is tamed.The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% Wednesday in Wellington, as anticipated by all 25 economists in a Bloomberg survey.“The Committee is confident that maintaining the OCR at a restrictive level for a sustained period will return consumer price inflation to within the 1-3% target range this calendar year,” the RBNZ said.The economy is in recession and has contracted in four of the past five quarters, prompting investors to bet that the RBNZ will start cutting rates in the second half of this year. The central bank is reluctant to entertain a pivot to monetary easing because inflation at 4.7% is still well above its 2% goal, and policymakers are concerned that elevated inflation expectations could become entrenched.The New Zealand dollar rose after the rate decision before retracing to be little changed. It bought 60.59 US cents at 2:14 p.m. in Wellington.Today’s decision is an interim review rather than a quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, so the bank didn’t publish fresh economic forecasts and there is no news conference with Governor Adrian Orr.In an unusually short statement, the RBNZ said the economy “continues to evolve as anticipated.”In February, the RBNZ forecast that inflation would fall back into the 1-3% target band by the third quarter this year and slow to the 2% midpoint by the end of next year.No Cuts Until 2025?Still, it projected then that it wouldn’t start easing policy until 2025, saying it doesn’t want to lengthen the time it takes to bring inflation to heel.“Globally, while there are differences across regions, economic growth remains below trend and is expected to remain subdued,” the RBNZ said today. “However, most major central banks are cautious about easing monetary policy given the ongoing risk of persistent inflation.”Several economists are tipping New Zealand’s recession continued in the first quarter and that unemployment will rise throughout 2024.The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research yesterday warned there’s a risk of a hard landing for the economy after its quarterly survey revealed firms are facing squeezed profits, prompting them to invest less and fire workers. The survey also showed fewer firms intended to raise prices.Most economists expect the first rate cut will occur in August, although Westpac Banking Corp. and ANZ Bank don’t see reductions starting until 2025.Investors are pricing two cuts before the end of this year.Central banks around the world are focused on how quickly inflation is slowing and when they can begin easing.The Swiss National Bank unveiled a surprise rate cut last month — the first by a Group-of-10 central bank — while the Reserve Bank of Australia has stepped back from threatening to hike further. The Federal Reserve continues to signal as many as three cuts this year, although when any easing will start remains unclear.A Fed cut this year might allow the RBNZ to ease earlier than it projects by pushing up the New Zealand dollar and suppressing imported inflation, Chief Economist Paul Conway said last month.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}