The stock market could double by 2030 because COVID has ‘utterly changed’ the policy environment: analyst

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The stock market could double by 2030 because COVID has ‘utterly changed’ the policy environment: analyst

Market Wacth2021-03-31

What’s a stock-market prognosticator to do when the S&P 500 index hits his 10-year target — but does so with 8 1/2 years still on the clock?That was the conundrum faced by Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, co-...

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Comment（12）

AT2020
·2021-03-31
Only doubled. I am hope more than doubled in 10 years.
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ALi_BaBa
·2021-03-31
Hi
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erichosk
·2021-03-31
The stock indexes could double because the indexes keep changing the stock compositions by kicking out weaker or lousy stocks. The Dow 30 stocks are not the original stocks anymore.
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madflurry
·2021-03-31
I hope so too
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xoomix
·2021-03-31
Good for brokers
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DLJR
·2021-03-31
Good...
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- DLJR:
  Thanks!
  2021-03-31
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- Mm101:
  Wow
  2021-03-31
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- pinghu:
  Good
  2021-03-31
  Reply
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FFE
·2021-03-31
Good read for all
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HYYOONG
·2021-03-31
Again Covid has created a new norm...
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Egging
·2021-03-31
Like and comment people
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- Kuropetal:
  ok
  2021-03-31
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YiiYii
·2021-03-31
Oh... Wow...
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- YiiYii:
  Tks [握手]
  2021-03-31
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- babypink:
  cool
  2021-03-31
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JavierLee
·2021-03-31
like and comment pls
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- Xiaolongbao:
  Reply pls
  2021-03-31
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sheldonkwek
·2021-03-31
X
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- Loading...:
  ?
  2021-03-31
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- JavierLee:
  ??
  2021-03-31
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But the idea that the nominal level of the S&P will be the same eight-and-a-half years hence seems too horrible an outcome to countenance,” Fraser-Jenkins wrote.The more important point, he said, is that it’s likely “too horrible for politicians and other policy makers to countenance, at least if they want to persist in the notion that individuals need to carry the risk of saving for their retirement,” he wrote. “Thus, given those alternatives I find it easier to accept that I was wrong, so I am belatedly changing my view to agree with that of my colleague and taking 8,000 as our S&P target for the end of the 2020s.”The S&P 500 hasn’t cleared 4,000 just yet, but it’s come close, finishing at a record 3,974.54 on Friday. On Tuesday,the index fell0.3% to close near 3,959. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.31%shed around 103 points, or 0.3%, a day after eking out a record close of its own, while the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,-0.11%gave up 0.1%.Fraser-Jenkins argued that the policy environment has “utterly changed” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not all of those changes will be positive for equities, “but the most important point is that for the first time in at least a decade there is a plausible case for inflation,” he wrote.While “unanchored” inflation would be a threat to the outlook, a moderate level of inflation would be positive, he said. Moreover, there’s also a good change that interest rates will rise more slowly in response to inflation, he said, while the acceptance of “semi-permanent higher debt” and massive direct government aid, such as fiscal stimulus checks, work-furlough programs or infrastructure investment, are things that would have been much less likely had there been no pandemic.In the same note, the analysts observed that while stock valuations would appear to be an impediment to returns — the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio at 36 times earnings is at the top end of its 120-year range — valuation has failed to be a guide for equity returns for more than a decade, a point Harmsworth had argued in 2019.What Biden’s First 100 Days Mean For You and Your“Policy has trumped valuation,” they said. “Moreover, the lack of other appealing assets that offer positive real returns means flows into equity are likely to continue, ‘TINA’ is not enough to make a fundamental justification for returns, but it can beget significant flow,” they wrote, referring to the acronym for “there is no alternative,” or the argument that yield-seeking investors have little choice but to plow money into equities due to low bond yields.At the same time, the analysts warned that a bullish stock-market target doesn’t obviate the need for investors to break away from the traditional 60%/40% split between stocks and bonds, reiterating their call for a portfolio model that would tend to have higher allocations to real assets and non-fiat currencies such as gold and potentially crypto assets.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":354659415,"gmtCreate":1617169652137,"gmtModify":1704696739585,"author":{"id":"3567830819209184","authorId":"3567830819209184","name":"AT2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/468bfa3dd7cae23eaf245b3c5e1de6ea","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3567830819209184","idStr":"3567830819209184"},"htmlText":"Only doubled. I&nbsp;am hope more than doubled in 10 years.","listText":"Only doubled. I&nbsp;am hope more than doubled in 10 years.","text":"Only doubled. I am hope more than doubled in 10 years.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354659415","repostId":1162553700,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":354621196,"gmtCreate":1617168813015,"gmtModify":1704696726955,"author":{"id":"3564105303063302","authorId":"3564105303063302","name":"ALi_BaBa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89722c800111c9c885624fce940701f","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3564105303063302","idStr":"3564105303063302"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354621196","repostId":1162553700,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":354664024,"gmtCreate":1617168196468,"gmtModify":1704696718923,"author":{"id":"3575433293784452","authorId":"3575433293784452","name":"erichosk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575433293784452","idStr":"3575433293784452"},"htmlText":"The stock indexes could double because the indexes keep changing&nbsp;the stock compositions by kicking out weaker or lousy stocks. The Dow 30 stocks are not the original stocks anymore.","listText":"The stock indexes could double because the indexes keep changing&nbsp;the stock compositions by kicking out weaker or lousy stocks. The Dow 30 stocks are not the original stocks anymore.","text":"The stock indexes could double because the indexes keep changing the stock compositions by kicking out weaker or lousy stocks. The Dow 30 stocks are not the original stocks anymore.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354664024","repostId":1162553700,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":354697744,"gmtCreate":1617164947688,"gmtModify":1704696669222,"author":{"id":"3572674326533987","authorId":"3572674326533987","name":"madflurry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4395a3d35844f2eff61057c3013597a6","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572674326533987","idStr":"3572674326533987"},"htmlText":"I hope so too&nbsp;","listText":"I hope so too&nbsp;","text":"I hope so too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354697744","repostId":1162553700,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":354605407,"gmtCreate":1617163741409,"gmtModify":1704696653818,"author":{"id":"3576157272608324","authorId":"3576157272608324","name":"xoomix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81fb577501c623c67fc3decd73850f8a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576157272608324","idStr":"3576157272608324"},"htmlText":"Good for brokers","listText":"Good for brokers","text":"Good for brokers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354605407","repostId":1162553700,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":354887324,"gmtCreate":1617158782868,"gmtModify":1704696572955,"author":{"id":"3580014250006616","authorId":"3580014250006616","name":"DLJR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b616730490b2660a1473a9b7751872a4","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580014250006616","idStr":"3580014250006616"},"htmlText":"Good...&nbsp;","listText":"Good...&nbsp;","text":"Good...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354887324","repostId":1162553700,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3928819,"gmtCreate":1617177405113,"gmtModify":1680782416415,"authorId":3580014250006616,"author":{"id":3580014250006616,"idStr":"3580014250006616","authorId":3580014250006616,"name":"DLJR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b616730490b2660a1473a9b7751872a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":354887324,"type":1,"supId":3927242,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks!","text":"Thanks!","html":"Thanks!"},{"id":3927324,"gmtCreate":1617162053614,"gmtModify":1680782392213,"authorId":3565081661382277,"author":{"id":3565081661382277,"idStr":"3565081661382277","authorId":3565081661382277,"name":"Mm101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01758aa877d9e5a9767d24de3a4e2ff1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":354887324,"type":1,"supId":3927242,"prevId":0,"content":"Wow","text":"Wow","html":"Wow"},{"id":3927242,"gmtCreate":1617161414357,"gmtModify":1680782391486,"authorId":3577496233814703,"author":{"id":3577496233814703,"idStr":"3577496233814703","authorId":3577496233814703,"name":"pinghu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c1937c871b61f4912f7e80672da554","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":354887324,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"},{"id":3927314,"gmtCreate":1617161995787,"gmtModify":1680782388989,"authorId":3565081661382277,"author":{"id":3565081661382277,"idStr":"3565081661382277","authorId":3565081661382277,"name":"Mm101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01758aa877d9e5a9767d24de3a4e2ff1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":354887324,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":354818490,"gmtCreate":1617157603410,"gmtModify":1704696554657,"author":{"id":"3576491867633529","authorId":"3576491867633529","name":"FFE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ffa41dea6894aac6a21859912e31f1a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576491867633529","idStr":"3576491867633529"},"htmlText":"Good read for all","listText":"Good read for all","text":"Good read for all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354818490","repostId":1162553700,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":354833705,"gmtCreate":1617156779907,"gmtModify":1704696537789,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"htmlText":"Again Covid has created a&nbsp;new norm...&nbsp;","listText":"Again Covid has created a&nbsp;new norm...&nbsp;","text":"Again Covid has created a new 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