The external environment is also unfavorable, with US stock futures declining. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 1.56%, S&P 500 index futures dropped 1.70%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures plunged 2%. Naturally, the Hong Kong market experienced another day of volatile adjustment, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.29% today. The Greenland issue continues to weigh on the capital markets. Olof Gill, a spokesperson for the European Commission, stated on the 19th that the EU will convene an emergency summit in Brussels, Belgium on the 22nd to discuss issues including US President Trump's announcement of tariffs on European countries opposing the US acquisition of Greenland and to assess potential countermeasures the EU might take. The market is also concerned about the risk of "weaponization of capital." According to US Treasury data, the EU holds over $10 trillion in US assets, with the UK and Norway holding even more such assets. However, these underlying assets are unlikely to be easily moved. The reason is straightforward: with such vast amounts of capital, where else could it go besides the US? Trump indicated that he will hold talks with various parties during the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss the US control of Greenland, emphasizing that Greenland is crucial for national and global security. The timing of the Greenland incident is intriguing; it now appears to be a meticulously orchestrated game, embodying Trump's so-called "art of the deal": first, create a loud, high-profile scare, then maximize benefits. Threats of additional tariffs and European counter-sanctions seem unreliable, and a peaceful resolution is highly probable.
Spot gold continued its ascent today, rising 1.23% to $4,728.32 per ounce, bringing its year-to-date increase to nearly 10%. ZTO's January top stock pick, Zijin Mining (02259), mentioned yesterday, continued its rise, gaining over 5%, while another pick, Luk Fook Holdings (00590), rose over 4%. Other gold stocks did not perform as strongly. Among bottom-fishing candidates, Chifeng Gold (06693) – which expects 2025 net profit to be approximately RMB 30-32 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 70% to 81% – rose over 3% today. However, should the Greenland issue be resolved, gold will likely face a correction, and investors need to manage their timing carefully.
The A-share market's performance was also weak. This Monday, the first trading day after the reduction in the margin financing guarantee ratio, the amount of margin buying declined, marking the first drop since the new year. Data from East Money Information's Choice financial terminal shows that on January 19th, the total margin buying amount in A-shares was RMB 267.4 billion, down 20.35% from RMB 335.7 billion last Friday. Compared to the peak of RMB 450.8 billion on January 14th, the decline reaches 40.68%. Simultaneously, large funds continue to "suppress the market" via broad-based ETFs. During today's session, ETFs tracking indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 again saw concentrated sell orders. The recent environment is indeed challenging. Under such conditions, capital tends to be relatively cautious.
Among large-cap stocks, only insurance stocks showed resilience, such as China Taiping (00966) and China Life Insurance (02628), which both rose over 4%, supported by strong earnings and attractive dividends. The consumer sector received a boost today. On January 20th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference where the National Development and Reform Commission stated it will research and formulate an implementation plan for the 2026-2030 strategy to expand domestic demand. For 2025, the focus is on boosting consumption. The Ministry of Finance announced measures: firstly, issuing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds totaling RMB 1.3 trillion to continuously support "key projects and new initiatives"; secondly, stimulating consumption potential from both supply and demand sides by implementing policies for personal consumption loan discounts and discounts on loans for service industry business entities; thirdly, adjusting and optimizing duty-free shop and tourist departure tax refund policies, increasing the number of duty-free shops, and encouraging and expanding related consumption. The personal consumption loan support targets eight areas: catering and accommodation, health, elderly care, childcare, domestic services, culture and entertainment, tourism, and sports.
The market today reacted precisely around these directions. Firstly, the aviation sector, linked to tourism and highlighted yesterday, showed significant gains due to pronounced benefits. ZTO's January top picks – China Eastern Airlines (00670), Air China (00753), and China Southern Airlines (01055) – all rose over 4%. Secondly, catering and food-related stocks gained. The Xi Bei Catering incident had caused a stir, but parties are now more rational. The marginal benefits from price competition have significantly diminished, and leading companies are advocating for rational competition. Driven by new products and channel advantages, Anjoy Foods (02648) – expecting improved core business sales performance in Q4 2025 and anticipating management's 2026 sales target to be no less than double-digit growth compared to 2025 – hit a record high today. CICC expects Yihai International (01579) to report 2024 net profit exceeding market expectations; the stock rose over 4% today. Xiao Cai Yuan (00999) announced plans to establish a joint venture to explore businesses like online and community-ready-to-eat stores, rising over 3% today. Jiumaojiu (09922) announced that on January 19, 2026, the company repurchased 975,000 shares for HK$2 million, at a price range of HK$1.99-2.06 per share. The stock rose nearly 6% today.
In the health and beauty direction, Maogeping (01318) – with management expecting strong Q4 performance benefiting from Double Eleven promotions and robust December sales, with online and offline sales growing over 40% and approximately 20% YoY respectively – rose over 4% today. In sportswear, the leading player Li Ning (02331) rose over 2% again. In the autonomous driving sector, two stocks stood out. XFH Group (02473) recently announced its intention to acquire a 51% controlling stake in Kuangshi Technology through equity acquisition or capital increase. Kuangshi Technology is a millimeter-wave radar total solution provider with full-chain independent R&D capabilities from "chip-algorithm-module-terminal-system platform." This signifies the company's formal entry into the smart driving industry, leading to a surge of over 20% today, bringing it near its historical high. Youjia Innovation (02431) announced it recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Sterling Tools Limited (STL) to promote the deployment of Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Driver Monitoring Systems (DMS) in India. STL is a leading Indian manufacturer of high-strength cold-headed automotive fasteners used in passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, commercial vehicles, and engineering equipment. This cooperation will see the group provide STL's passenger and commercial vehicles with full-stack ADAS and DMS solutions and products, opening up the Indian market. The stock rose over 7% on heavy volume today.
On January 20th, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce: the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is 3.0%, and the 5-year以上 LPR is 3.5%. Following a 10-basis-point cut for both tenors in May 2025, the LPR has remained unchanged for eight consecutive months. Against the backdrop of commercial banks' net interest margins being at historical lows, quoting banks currently lack the motivation to proactively lower the LPR quotes. However, PBOC Deputy Governor Zou Lan recently stated that there is still some room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year. Property stocks performed positively today; details are in the sector focus section.
On January 20th, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Notice on Several Measures to Further Support Urban Renewal Actions." The policy explicitly supports the revitalization of existing assets and functional conversion, strengthening market expectations for a "soft landing" and successful transformation of the real estate sector. It guides developers to transition from "high-turnover land acquisition and development" to stock renovation + holding operations + light-asset services, creating new profit growth points. However, the effectiveness of this policy depends on local government execution, funding support (special bonds, bank loans), and market demand. Key stocks: China Resources Land (01109), Longfor Group (00960), China Overseas Land & Investment (00688), Yuexiu Property (00123); also property service players like Greentown China (03900) and COLI Property (02669).
CTIHK (06055): Overseas景气度 Rising for Novel Tobacco; Building a Global Sales Platform for Chinese-style Cigars. The company has successively signed global exclusive distribution and agency agreements for cigars with Sichuan China Tobacco, Hubei China Tobacco, Shandong China Tobacco, and Anhui China Tobacco. Through deep resource integration, CTIHK has brought the four major domestic premium cigar brands – "Great Wall," "Yellow Crane Tower," "Taishan," and "Crown" – under its umbrella. Commentary: The company's synergistic cooperation with these four cigar brand enterprises aims to jointly build Chinese-style cigar brands with international influence and competitiveness. Since July 2025, the company has signed global exclusive distribution agreements for cigars with Sichuan China Tobacco Industrial Co., Ltd., Hubei China Tobacco Industrial Co., Ltd., Anhui China Tobacco, and a global exclusive agency agreement with Shandong China Tobacco Industrial Co., Ltd., preliminarily completing the construction of a global sales platform for Chinese-style cigars. The globalization process for novel tobacco is accelerating, with overseas景气度 rising. CTIHK's three core businesses – tobacco leaf product import, tobacco leaf product export, and cigarette export – contributed 81.4%, 11.2%, and 5.3% to revenue respectively, totaling 98.0%; their gross profit contributions were 72.6%, 6.7%, and 15.0% respectively, totaling 94.3%. Brazilian tobacco leaf base: By 2025, aim to build the largest tobacco leaf storage center in South America (capacity 500,000 tons), achieving "direct sourcing from origin + 72-hour global delivery." Digital trade: The blockchain traceability system covers 100% of imported tobacco leaves, improving supply chain efficiency by 25% in 2024. CTIHK's endogenous growth momentum is steady; its main business benefits from the tobacco monopoly system, ensuring strong order planning, while also possessing growth potential from overseas expansion. There are numerous high-quality assets outside the company, and as the vehicle for China Tobacco's global出海 strategy, its external growth holds significant imagination space.
