Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices

seekingalpha2021-03-22

Summary At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock. This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation. Alibaba will be able to enjoy ...

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DenDenBear
·2021-04-14
Reply and like thanks
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DenDenBear
·2021-03-29
Like and comment thanks
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DreamyLucid
·2021-03-27
Good stuff. Already bought $Alibaba(09988)$on HKEX.
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jiunnlee
·2021-03-24
Excellent analysis. Vested. This give me more conviction to add more.
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MZ39
·2021-03-23
Agree with this article's analysis. I think BABA is going to be like amazon and Alicloud just announced its going into the personal cloud spacd. Given time it could compete at the global stage as well.
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darrentanjm
·2021-03-23
Super undervalued! Major buy
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- DreamyLucid:
  Brought down? The US stock market now is a circus.
  2021-03-27
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- darrentanjm:
  Doesn't hide the fact the stock is undervalued
  2021-03-25
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- DJBoy:
  Nope All companies related with China will be brought down by the anti Asian sentiment
  2021-03-25
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aliciatng
·2021-03-23
Wow
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Galvinlwy
·2021-03-23
BABA [開心]
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fishfire
·2021-03-23
Thanks for sharing
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财富小吴
·2021-03-23
BABA all the way!!! ?
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Annalz
·2021-03-23
An eagle with hurt
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Annalz
·2021-03-23
Baba jiayou! Mayun jiayou! ???
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Annalz
·2021-03-23
Alibaba is an eagle ? with shoot
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Annalz
·2021-03-23
Please give me a feedback ?
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- buckethead:
  ok, done
  2021-03-23
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FlorCheah
·2021-03-23
Buy and add the stocks on the dip ?
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- spcenbeyond:
  nice
  2021-03-23
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- Xgj53bh:
  ??
  2021-03-23
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GTig
·2021-03-23
Please like and comments. Tks
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- GTig:
  tks
  2021-03-23
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- XNOP593:
  Donee
  2021-03-23
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AHEAD
·2021-03-23
Enter at what price..
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JJQ
·2021-03-23
Please Like and comment! Thank you!
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- spcenbeyond:
  nice
  2021-03-23
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- kokkeong:
  Ok
  2021-03-23
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CherryPang
·2021-03-23
Will buy
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- GTig:
  [强]
  2021-03-23
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Gigachad
·2021-03-23
It does seem like a good stock with up side potential ?
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"09988","symbol_name":"阿里巴巴-W","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","article_id":"1163218484","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"translate_title":"阿里巴巴-SW：现价价值成长股","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":344349409,"gmtCreate":1618380379201,"gmtModify":1704709928195,"author":{"id":"3576147606699436","authorId":"3576147606699436","authorIdStr":"3576147606699436","name":"DenDenBear","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e983ba302bc271159224fa4bb390e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576147606699436"},"htmlText":"Reply and like thanks","listText":"Reply and like thanks","text":"Reply and like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344349409","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":355104219,"gmtCreate":1617032373931,"gmtModify":1704801186068,"author":{"id":"3576147606699436","authorId":"3576147606699436","authorIdStr":"3576147606699436","name":"DenDenBear","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e983ba302bc271159224fa4bb390e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576147606699436"},"htmlText":"Like and comment thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355104219","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356454283,"gmtCreate":1616809794742,"gmtModify":1704799274240,"author":{"id":"3569320299762451","authorId":"3569320299762451","authorIdStr":"3569320299762451","name":"DreamyLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df94d831afbfa80ddda11b9d4ff73cf1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569320299762451"},"htmlText":"Good stuff. Already bought <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>on HKEX.&nbsp;","listText":"Good stuff. Already bought <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>on HKEX.&nbsp;","text":"Good stuff. Already bought $Alibaba(09988)$on HKEX.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356454283","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":351969317,"gmtCreate":1616553748739,"gmtModify":1704795580476,"author":{"id":"3575281727656519","authorId":"3575281727656519","authorIdStr":"3575281727656519","name":"jiunnlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/203a843566d995cb7cf7073f19a32bcf","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575281727656519"},"htmlText":"Excellent analysis. Vested. This give me more conviction to add more.&nbsp;","listText":"Excellent analysis. Vested. This give me more conviction to add more.&nbsp;","text":"Excellent analysis. Vested. This give me more conviction to add more.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351969317","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353260525,"gmtCreate":1616502034767,"gmtModify":1704794916924,"author":{"id":"3572322201202012","authorId":"3572322201202012","authorIdStr":"3572322201202012","name":"MZ39","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30eb7b5a7db02258a92e8e407af0f568","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572322201202012"},"htmlText":"Agree with this article's analysis. I think BABA is going to be like amazon and Alicloud just announced its going into the personal cloud spacd. Given time it could compete at the global stage as well.","listText":"Agree with this article's analysis. I think BABA is going to be like amazon and Alicloud just announced its going into the personal cloud spacd. Given time it could compete at the global stage as well.","text":"Agree with this article's analysis. I think BABA is going to be like amazon and Alicloud just announced its going into the personal cloud spacd. Given time it could compete at the global stage as well.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353260525","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353648541,"gmtCreate":1616495209783,"gmtModify":1704794828119,"author":{"id":"3575719295092987","authorId":"3575719295092987","authorIdStr":"3575719295092987","name":"darrentanjm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db13c0920fa0c70b27d1ad93e31c4979","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575719295092987"},"htmlText":"Super undervalued! Major buy","listText":"Super undervalued! Major buy","text":"Super undervalued! Major buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353648541","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3898004,"gmtCreate":1616809835722,"gmtModify":1680781949917,"authorId":3569320299762451,"author":{"id":3569320299762451,"authorId":3569320299762451,"name":"DreamyLucid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df94d831afbfa80ddda11b9d4ff73cf1","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-1","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Debut Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.11","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353648541,"type":1,"supId":3877943,"prevId":0,"content":"Brought down? The US stock market now is a circus.","text":"Brought down? The US stock market now is a circus.","html":"Brought down? The US stock market now is a circus."},{"id":3880459,"gmtCreate":1616669920366,"gmtModify":1680781681472,"authorId":3575719295092987,"author":{"id":3575719295092987,"authorId":3575719295092987,"name":"darrentanjm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db13c0920fa0c70b27d1ad93e31c4979","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353648541,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Doesn't hide the fact the stock is undervalued","text":"Doesn't hide the fact the stock is undervalued","html":"Doesn't hide the fact the stock is undervalued"},{"id":3877943,"gmtCreate":1616645132780,"gmtModify":1680781640083,"authorId":3578917676674127,"author":{"id":3578917676674127,"authorId":3578917676674127,"name":"DJBoy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89ddb65fea14052b67a417c63273930","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.10%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353648541,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nope All companies related with China will be brought down by the anti Asian sentiment","text":"Nope All companies related with China will be brought down by the anti Asian sentiment","html":"Nope All companies related with China will be brought down by the anti Asian sentiment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353600461,"gmtCreate":1616487825753,"gmtModify":1704794715450,"author":{"id":"3572214398550610","authorId":"3572214398550610","authorIdStr":"3572214398550610","name":"aliciatng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b23ee891a1061c7907495a9c7da890","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572214398550610"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353600461","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353169238,"gmtCreate":1616470333124,"gmtModify":1704794510531,"author":{"id":"3559295361190258","authorId":"3559295361190258","authorIdStr":"3559295361190258","name":"Galvinlwy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa862e1f223b632a63600625deb527d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559295361190258"},"htmlText":"BABA [開心]&nbsp;","listText":"BABA [開心]&nbsp;","text":"BABA [開心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353169238","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":353105108,"gmtCreate":1616466113404,"gmtModify":1704794449524,"author":{"id":"3572518581615323","authorId":"3572518581615323","authorIdStr":"3572518581615323","name":"fishfire","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ef605d057db6c8a0288538c085d4a77","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572518581615323"},"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353105108","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353376084,"gmtCreate":1616465460648,"gmtModify":1704794434930,"author":{"id":"3578228816325247","authorId":"3578228816325247","authorIdStr":"3578228816325247","name":"财富小吴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f284324790d0c3cf5b131d0d4baf96","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578228816325247"},"htmlText":"BABA all the way!!! ?","listText":"BABA all the way!!! ?","text":"BABA all the way!!! ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353376084","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353352454,"gmtCreate":1616463971878,"gmtModify":1704794410096,"author":{"id":"3577089953267281","authorId":"3577089953267281","authorIdStr":"3577089953267281","name":"Annalz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd285ab6189bb61da4b48c3e149eedc","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577089953267281"},"htmlText":"An eagle with hurt","listText":"An eagle with hurt","text":"An eagle with hurt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353352454","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353352926,"gmtCreate":1616463942065,"gmtModify":1704794409450,"author":{"id":"3577089953267281","authorId":"3577089953267281","authorIdStr":"3577089953267281","name":"Annalz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd285ab6189bb61da4b48c3e149eedc","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577089953267281"},"htmlText":"Baba jiayou! Mayun jiayou! ???","listText":"Baba jiayou! Mayun jiayou! ???","text":"Baba jiayou! Mayun jiayou! ???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353352926","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353356404,"gmtCreate":1616463903408,"gmtModify":1704794408802,"author":{"id":"3577089953267281","authorId":"3577089953267281","authorIdStr":"3577089953267281","name":"Annalz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd285ab6189bb61da4b48c3e149eedc","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577089953267281"},"htmlText":"Alibaba is an eagle ? with shoot","listText":"Alibaba is an eagle ? with shoot","text":"Alibaba is an eagle ? with shoot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353356404","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353356332,"gmtCreate":1616463871726,"gmtModify":1704794407994,"author":{"id":"3577089953267281","authorId":"3577089953267281","authorIdStr":"3577089953267281","name":"Annalz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd285ab6189bb61da4b48c3e149eedc","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577089953267281"},"htmlText":"Please give me a feedback ?&nbsp;","listText":"Please give me a feedback ?&nbsp;","text":"Please give me a feedback ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353356332","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3859109,"gmtCreate":1616464784195,"gmtModify":1680781361602,"authorId":3573341177962944,"author":{"id":3573341177962944,"authorId":3573341177962944,"name":"buckethead","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb0baba9e10b75fa4dc0ff143e54bbea","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353356332,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok, done","text":"ok, done","html":"ok, done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353312463,"gmtCreate":1616461099852,"gmtModify":1704794358715,"author":{"id":"3573025586175142","authorId":"3573025586175142","authorIdStr":"3573025586175142","name":"FlorCheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cb91e5f44e414335718e1beffda39e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573025586175142"},"htmlText":"Buy and add the stocks&nbsp;on the dip ?","listText":"Buy and add the stocks&nbsp;on the dip ?","text":"Buy and add the stocks on the dip ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353312463","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3859372,"gmtCreate":1616466776207,"gmtModify":1680781370778,"authorId":3571890541915645,"author":{"id":3571890541915645,"authorId":3571890541915645,"name":"spcenbeyond","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353312463,"type":1,"supId":3858964,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"},{"id":3858964,"gmtCreate":1616463629607,"gmtModify":1680781361731,"authorId":3558254567284585,"author":{"id":3558254567284585,"authorId":3558254567284585,"name":"Xgj53bh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7818f9e64ba2eec5a82c00bd8793dc68","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353312463,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"??","text":"??","html":"??"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353339819,"gmtCreate":1616460035031,"gmtModify":1704794335832,"author":{"id":"3571776703726113","authorId":"3571776703726113","authorIdStr":"3571776703726113","name":"GTig","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b4eaf438c926c9f1af375114bc3651d","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571776703726113"},"htmlText":"Please like and comments. Tks","listText":"Please like and comments. Tks","text":"Please like and comments. Tks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353339819","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3861179,"gmtCreate":1616485959392,"gmtModify":1680781387925,"authorId":3571776703726113,"author":{"id":3571776703726113,"authorId":3571776703726113,"name":"GTig","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b4eaf438c926c9f1af375114bc3651d","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353339819,"type":1,"supId":3858775,"prevId":0,"content":"tks","text":"tks","html":"tks"},{"id":3858775,"gmtCreate":1616462435332,"gmtModify":1680781354821,"authorId":3577092942653022,"author":{"id":3577092942653022,"authorId":3577092942653022,"name":"XNOP593","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732877c9630f22cc8eb6bebac5e10f6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353339819,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Donee","text":"Donee","html":"Donee"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353949775,"gmtCreate":1616457901997,"gmtModify":1704794281655,"author":{"id":"3559365521897414","authorId":"3559365521897414","authorIdStr":"3559365521897414","name":"AHEAD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5ec3cc2c503d9bbb111d93e7d1ab9b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559365521897414"},"htmlText":"Enter at what price..&nbsp;","listText":"Enter at what price..&nbsp;","text":"Enter at what price..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353949775","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353924544,"gmtCreate":1616457160288,"gmtModify":1704794265770,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","authorIdStr":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56f38f5ea7b683e48c466bc341ca6d33","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3571627110799155"},"htmlText":"Please Like and comment! Thank you!&nbsp;","listText":"Please Like and comment! Thank you!&nbsp;","text":"Please Like and comment! Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353924544","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3859378,"gmtCreate":1616466792165,"gmtModify":1680781370837,"authorId":3571890541915645,"author":{"id":3571890541915645,"authorId":3571890541915645,"name":"spcenbeyond","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353924544,"type":1,"supId":3858141,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"},{"id":3858141,"gmtCreate":1616458884866,"gmtModify":1680781342036,"authorId":3571617352047146,"author":{"id":3571617352047146,"authorId":3571617352047146,"name":"kokkeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa42aa3cca43a0150f6bc4498596541","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353924544,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353969055,"gmtCreate":1616455985877,"gmtModify":1704794242055,"author":{"id":"3579242284896142","authorId":"3579242284896142","authorIdStr":"3579242284896142","name":"CherryPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72256d5f02e9431fb7df955e5b3418f8","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3579242284896142"},"htmlText":"Will buy","listText":"Will buy","text":"Will buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353969055","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3858362,"gmtCreate":1616460117282,"gmtModify":1680781351918,"authorId":3571776703726113,"author":{"id":3571776703726113,"authorId":3571776703726113,"name":"GTig","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b4eaf438c926c9f1af375114bc3651d","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353969055,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353900058,"gmtCreate":1616449390474,"gmtModify":1704794174368,"author":{"id":"3576371892942792","authorId":"3576371892942792","authorIdStr":"3576371892942792","name":"Gigachad","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364a97d9d654c75693bbd29342d265f9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576371892942792"},"htmlText":"It does seem like a good stock with up side potential ?","listText":"It does seem like a good stock with up side potential ?","text":"It does seem like a good stock with up side potential ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353900058","repostId":1163218484,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\">Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\">Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\">Source: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\">Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\">Source: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\">Source: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\">Source: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\nA High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\">Source: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\">Source: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\">Source: Author's calculations\nAssumptions &amp; Estimates Used\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\">Source:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":119,"commentSize":51,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":26,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}