To The Moon

Growing uncertainty Sunday evening over whether the US and Iran can quickly reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz left S&P 500 futures trading nearly unchanged. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures showed little movement, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures also held steady.

Over the weekend, Iran denied any direct negotiations with the United States regarding the reopening of the waterway, cooling investor optimism that a deal allowing ships to freely pass through this critical chokepoint could be reached. WTI crude oil rose 1% on Sunday, trading slightly above $79 per barrel. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that an agreement was close. However, President Trump told Axios on Sunday that the US is 鈥渙nly half-negotiating鈥?with Iran, expressing a desire to maintain economic pressure on the country.

All three major US stock indexes just recorded their best week since April, with the S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high on Friday. The July non-farm payrolls report, which unexpectedly showed a contraction, boosted market expectations on Friday, prompting investors to bet that the Federal Reserve might pause its rate hike cycle, lifting stocks in the session's final hour. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, federal funds futures traders currently price about a 44% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, down from 67% a week ago.

Peter Graff, head of Americas investments at Amova Asset Management, said: 鈥淭he stock market will likely welcome the dovish signal from this employment report. But investors should be cautious about the growth potential of an economy that is shedding jobs.鈥?This week, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will be released, keeping investors focused on the latest inflation trends. No major economic data is scheduled for Monday. Traders are also watching a batch of corporate earnings reports this week, including consumer names like On Holding and Cava Group, as well as technology companies such as Super Micro Computer and CoreWeave.

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