To The Moon

On September 29, the Shanghai Composite Index opened down 0.20% at 3,816.15 points, the Shenzhen Component Index opened down 0.15% at 12,839.61 points, and the ChiNext Index opened down 0.10% at 3,136.53 points. The STAR 50 Index opened up 0.17% at 1,558.66 points.

As of 9:33 AM, across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, 2,405 stocks advanced, 2,776 declined, and 390 remained flat.

In terms of sectors, real estate development, real estate services, housing construction, publishing, tourism and scenic areas, and engineering consulting services led the gains. Among them, real estate development rose 1.91%, housing construction gained 0.94%, real estate services climbed 0.94%, publishing advanced 0.83%, tourism and scenic areas rose 0.81%, and engineering consulting services added 0.76%. The semiconductor industry received net inflows of approximately 469 million yuan from major funds and was up 0.66%.

The sectors with the largest declines included precious metals, communication equipment, agriculture, and blood products.

Market Overview

As of 9:33 AM, the STAR 50 Index was up 0.49% at 1,563.66 points, the only one among the four major indexes to post gains. The Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.16% at 3,817.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index was down 0.12% at 12,843.06 points, and the ChiNext Index was down 0.14% at 3,135.50 points. All three major indexes fluctuated within a narrow range near their opening prices.

In terms of structure, the real estate chain led overall, with real estate development up 1.91%, housing construction up 0.94%, real estate services up 0.94%, and engineering consulting services up 0.76%. Publishing rose 0.83% and tourism and scenic areas gained 0.81%, showing synchronized activity. The semiconductor industry recorded net capital inflows, with the sector up 0.66%.

Regarding volume and sentiment, as of 9:33 AM, there were 16 stocks hitting the daily limit-up and 11 hitting the limit-down across the two markets, with the advance-decline ratio at 43%.

Overnight News Highlights

1. The three major US stock indexes closed lower collectively: the Dow Jones fell 0.67% to 51,481.51 points, the Nasdaq dropped 0.92% to 26,820.38 points, and the S&P 500 declined 0.77%. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.2%, and the 30-year yield approached 5.6%. According to CME interest rate futures, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is about 70%.

2. The State Council executive meeting studied macro policy efforts to enhance effectiveness: the meeting proposed increasing the intensity of counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, rolling out a batch of practical and effective incremental policies, optimizing fiscal expenditure arrangements, making good use of local government debt balance limits, increasing re-lending quotas for technological innovation, technological upgrading, and support for agriculture and small businesses, and studying policies to stabilize the real estate market.

3. Seven departments issued a plan for the development of the new battery industry: the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments jointly issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for the development of the new battery industry, proposing that by 2030, all-solid-state batteries will initially achieve large-scale application, and long-life lithium batteries will reach a cycle life of 15,000 cycles. Four departments in Shanghai issued implementation opinions on the commodity housing sales system, clarifying that newly transferred land projects will prioritize finished housing sales.

Trend Analysis

Institutional views suggest that A-shares may currently be in a phase of consolidation and recovery. Considering that previous adjustments have already released considerable valuation and trading risks, and historical patterns indicate a high probability of recovery after pre-holiday pullbacks, the odds for "holding stocks through the holiday" have improved this time. The importance of stock structure outweighs total position size. During the long holiday, US PCE and September non-farm payroll data will be released in concentrated fashion, and external disturbances warrant attention.