鲍威尔：目前不是缩减量宽进行沟通的时机，通胀临时上扬不保证将加息

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鲍威尔：目前不是缩减量宽进行沟通的时机，通胀临时上扬不保证将加息

华尔街见闻2021-04-29

鲍威尔着重阐述了“经济距离进一步进展还有很长的路要走”，现在不宜讨论加息和缩表，当时机适宜时，美联储将减码对抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的购买速度，但不是现在。美国经济复苏还不均衡，股市某些方面存在泡沫。美股在“泡沫言论”后悉数转跌，分析称短期内缩表大门被关闭。美东时间4月28日周三下午，美联储公布最新利率决议，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会。与市场预期一致，美联储在4月FOMC会议上保持政策...

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Comment（11）

EricPhang
·2021-04-29
泡沫還不夠大，所以先不縮表
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Paul_Lo_6119
·2021-04-29
史上最垃圾的一屆聯儲
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VersaillesLi
·2021-04-29
ka
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1
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zh2021
·2021-04-29
[疑問]
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2
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- VersaillesLi:
  [呆住]
  2021-04-29
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hhyw
·2021-04-29
股市確實已經是一個大泡沫了，跌個50％吧???
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2
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joyo1662
·2021-04-29
波瀾不驚
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- 反卡:
  小心点，别玩得太过火
  2021-04-30
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- 反卡:
  意思是你们继续玩
  2021-04-29
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健安_1832
·2021-04-29
確定不........
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反卡
·2021-04-29
泡沫？說的該不會是特斯拉吧。。。
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SunnyLeo
·2021-04-29
說話乾脆點可好
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- 呆牛张:
  市场只需要他说话。他说啥只是借口。。
  2021-04-29
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HANDM
·2021-04-29
一如既往
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3
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zjmting
·2021-04-29
繼續漲
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“美国经济距离美联储实现充分就业和稳定物价的双重目标还很遥远，距离取得实质性进展可能还有一段时间，在此之前，美联储预期将保持宽松的货币政策。就美国经济复苏而言，疫情防控是最重要的因素，可能美国需要在疫情防控上取得实质性进展。通过接种疫苗，应当允许美国在2021年重返更加正常的状态。”\n\n富国银行债券策略师Michael Schumacher认为，这说明鲍威尔几乎否定了短期内减少购债的任何可能性，彻底关上了马上缩表的大门，这意味着美债收益率的升幅空间可能要小一些。\n不过，正如市场普遍预期的那样，他觉得美联储正逐渐接近最终的缩债进程。虽然可能至少需要几个月才可能看到FOMC重新启用“缩债”措辞，“6月会议时会更加有趣”，届时会有几个月的火热通胀数据，美联储将面临更大压力来解释其修正后的通胀框架。\n还需注意的是，鲍威尔今日提到，当时机适宜时，美联储将减码对抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的购买速度，但不是现在。\n华尔街见闻之前提及，彭博调查称，超过三分之二的受调查经济学家预计，美联储将在今年发出缩减购债规模的早期预警信号。\n鲍威尔再次明确加息前提必须满足两大条件，通胀走高反映临时因素\n鲍威尔再一次在记者会上指出，加息的前提条件是——劳动力市场状况与FOMC委员会对最大化就业的评估相一致，并且通胀率上升至2%，同时有望在一段时间内温和超过2%”：\n\n “迄今并不接近取得进一步的实质性进展。美国3月非农就业呈现重磅利好，但那远远不够。服务业工人可能难以找到工作，美国仍然有大量失业人口。”\n\n上文提到，鲍威尔曾称，通胀的临时上扬不保证美联储将加息，他也对此作了进一步解释：\n\n “坦率地说，在劳动力市场显著疲软的当下，我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升，进而提升市场的通胀预期。要使通胀持续上升并抬升通胀预期，将需要一段时间，而且很可能需要在非常强大的劳动力市场中才会发生这种情况。”\n\n他认为，“所有人都不应当质疑美联储控制特定通胀的决心”，但部分物价上涨现象不会长期存在。面对房价蹿升的提问时，他表示“美联储非常密切地留意房价上涨”，但认为涨价主要体现出需求强劲和供应不太多的基本面，“住房方面并未引发金融稳定性顾虑”。\n在金融市场监管方面，鲍威尔坚持早前的立场称，类似于对冲基金Archegos爆仓的风险并未加重对金融系统的担忧。股市的某些东西的确体现出市场泡沫，但市场在更大程度上体现出新冠疫苗接种进度和经济形势，而不是美联储的政策：\n\n “整体而言，金融稳定性良莠不齐，但仍然是可控的。银行系统的资本状况良好，金融系统的杠杆并不是一个问题，众多货币基金存在融资风险方面的问题，而不是系统性的问题。正关注货币基金和公司债基金的运转动能。”\n\n对于美国央行版数字货币一事，他表示，美联储觉得有义务很好地理解数字货币的技术和政策问题，相比在数字货币方面尝鲜，美联储更希望做正确的事。\n此外，鲍威尔拒绝置评白宫财政计划，美国总统拜登将于当地时间周三晚公布1.8万亿美元的“美国家庭投资计划”，他也没有谈及自己会否连任美联储主席的前景。\n分析：短期内缩表大门关闭，重点关注美联储6至8月开会动态\n华尔街见闻曾提到，市场紧盯鲍威尔会否释放QE退出信号，特别是关注美联储将如何定义“取得实质性进一步进展”这个模糊概念。不过，今日的FOMC声明和记者会都没作出具体阐释。\n高盛认为美联储现在暗示缩减购债还为时过早。随着劳动力市场进一步改善，美联储最快可能在今年下半年开始释放缩减购债的信号，在2022年初开始正式缩减。但如果未来就业报告好于预期，美联储也可能将购债缩减时间点提前到今年四季度。\n高盛参考历史数据称，美联储可能会采取每次会议缩减150亿美元的方式，逐步退出现在1200亿美元的购债计划。这意味需要8次会议，即整整一年来完成购债退出（2022年开始，2022年底结束）：\n\n 完成购债退出后，美联储可能会利用1-2个季度评估退出购债的具体影响，同时为加息做准备。\n 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