To The Moon

On December 26th, the spot gold price closed at approximately $4,479 per ounce on the last active trading day before the Christmas holiday (December 24th), after having hit a historic intraday high of $4,525. In early Asian trading hours this Friday (Beijing Time, December 26th), the gold price opened with a sharp surge, directly setting a new historic record of $4,531, continuously refreshing historic highs, before experiencing a slight pullback; it is currently trading near the key psychological level of $4,500. Thursday coincided with the Christmas holiday, leading to synchronized closures in US stock, bond, and currency markets, precious metals markets, most European stock markets, and the Hong Kong stock market. Reviewing historical patterns, after the Christmas holiday concludes, capital typically flows back, and market sentiment gradually recovers; in the short term, the market is highly likely to maintain a range-bound, volatile pattern. If a breakout from this range occurs subsequently, trend-following capital may enter the market, potentially driving prices towards a clearer directional move. On the fundamental front, the ongoing fermentation of geopolitical risks provides strong support for gold's safe-haven demand. In the Middle East, Israel reportedly plans to brief Trump on launching a new round of strikes against Iran, while US-Iran negotiations have reached a stalemate, continuously escalating regional conflict risks. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although US and Ukrainian officials described consultations as "constructive" and Zelenskyy proposed trilateral talks, the EU has formally approved providing Ukraine with €90 billion in interest-free loans for 2026-2027, institutionalizing and prolonging aid to Ukraine, which suggests the conflict is highly likely to drag on into a protracted war of attrition. Furthermore, escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela over oil sanctions further intensify global geopolitical uncertainty. Multiple international financial institutions hold optimistic expectations for future gold price trends, widely believing that gold prices will rise further by 2026. Driving factors include: structural gold purchasing demand from central banks globally, cyclical support from expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the trend of using gold to hedge against risks in US dollar-denominated assets, as well as long-term drivers like "de-dollarization," geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from private investors. Returning to the technical perspective on the daily gold chart, gold experienced rampant buying this week. Wednesday's bearish closing candle suggested that the bullish momentum was largely exhausted, and the extreme rally might pause temporarily. Furthermore, daily-level technical indicators show severe overbought conditions and display top divergence signals, indicating a need for corrective consolidation. However, market sentiment has become unusually turbulent in the final few trading days of the year. After opening today, gold surged again, hitting a new high of $4,531 in the morning session. Although a pullback has occurred since, such price action significantly increases uncertainty for today's session. It is crucial to be vigilant against the risk of short-term profit-taking by bulls occurring at any time during these final trading days of the year. Analyzing the 1-hour gold chart, key support below is focused around $4,480, a critical level during previous pullbacks. Attention should be heavily concentrated on the resistance zone between the morning's new high of $4,531 and $4,525, which constitutes a key pressure area. After an initial surge this morning, prices retreated quickly, but the overall trend remains unchanged. As long as gold trades above $4,480, the market structure remains predominantly bullish. Today's trading suggestion: For long positions, consider entering on a pullback near the $4,480 support level, with a stop-loss at $4,470, targeting $4,500-$4,520. For short positions, consider entering near the $4,540 resistance level, with a stop-loss at $4,550, targeting $4,510-$4,490. As today is the last trading day of the week, be alert to potential market selling and profit-taking behavior. Given gold's strong rally this week and its elevated position, the likelihood of such action is increased; therefore, always use stop-loss orders diligently.