Earning Preview ｜Bank of New York Mellon Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 09.61%, and institutional views are constructive
Earnings Agent01-06
Abstract
Bank of New York Mellon will release its quarterly results on January 13, 2026 Pre-Market. The preview assesses headline revenue, margin, and EPS trajectories for the quarter, contrasts them against the prior period, and incorporates current sell-side expectations alongside the company’s segment dynamics and operational drivers.
Market Forecast
Consensus expectations point to total revenue of USD 5,107,216,670.00 this quarter, implying year-over-year growth of 09.61%, with estimated EBIT at USD 1,851,296,710.00 and estimated adjusted EPS at USD 1.99; forecasts imply year-over-year EPS growth of 26.89%. While detailed gross profit margin guidance is not provided, modeled net profitability continues to track stable levels; revenue and EPS forecasts suggest ongoing operating leverage.
Within the core franchise, Securities Services and Market & Wealth Services remain the highlights due to durable fee flows and stable client activity, while Investment & Wealth Management shows selective growth flexibility supported by asset values. The most promising segment is Securities Services with revenue of USD 2,459,000,000.00 and resilient year-over-year momentum reflected in client balances and activity.
Last Quarter Review
The previous quarter delivered revenue of USD 5,081,000,000.00, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 1.45 hundred million, a net profit margin of 28.40%, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.91; the year-over-year growth in adjusted EPS was 25.66%, with top-line growing 09.32%.
A key highlight was disciplined expense control alongside steady fee generation, supporting EBIT of USD 1,875,000,000.00 and positive sequential profit dynamics. Main business highlights included Securities Services revenue of USD 2,459,000,000.00, Market & Wealth Services at USD 1,767,000,000.00, Investment & Wealth Management at USD 824,000,000.00, and Other at USD 19,000,000.00.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Securities Services
Securities Services is positioned to anchor quarterly performance through scale, client stickiness, and volumes tied to settlement, custody, and clearing activity. The most recent quarter’s USD 2,459,000,000.00 revenue base sets a firm foundation, and the consensus revenue trajectory implies modest year-over-year expansion consistent with industry transaction flows. Fee resiliency is supported by diversified mandates, global custody breadth, and technology-enabled operating platforms that help maintain pricing and operational efficiency. Incremental upside can come from elevated client activity, onboarding of new mandates, and continued optimization in asset servicing workflows; risks include softer market turnover and price pressure in commoditized service lines that could temper expansion.
Most Promising Business: Market & Wealth Services
Market & Wealth Services, at USD 1,767,000,000.00 last quarter, is poised to benefit from healthy collateral and treasury services demand, as well as card, clearing, and payment flows. The quarter’s consensus for revenue and EPS suggests an environment supportive of incremental operating leverage, helped by throughput in clearing infrastructure and balanced pricing. If client activity remains stable and engagement deepens across cash management and collateral services, the segment can contribute disproportionately to margin support. Potential headwinds include moderation in volumes if market volatility recedes and competitive pricing pressure in transaction services, though the breadth of offerings provides buffers.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Share performance into and through the print will likely hinge on the degree of alignment between reported EPS and the consensus USD 1.99 estimate, as well as indications around fee income durability. Commentary on expense discipline and operational efficiency will be closely watched, especially after delivering USD 1,875,000,000.00 of EBIT last quarter. Segment composition matters: higher contribution from Securities Services and Market & Wealth Services would validate revenue quality, while any softness in Investment & Wealth Management could be offset by stability in client balances. Evidence of resilient net profitability relative to the 28.40% net margin seen last quarter would further support sentiment, as would signs of mandate wins or platform enhancements.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish views form the majority, centering on consistent EPS execution versus consensus, fee-income stability, and operational efficiency that underpins EBIT and margin trends. Several institutions highlight the supportive setup for adjusted EPS at USD 1.99 on revenue of USD 5,107,216,670.00, noting the year-over-year growth profile near 26.89% for EPS and 09.61% for revenue. Positive stances emphasize incremental operating leverage from high-quality recurring fees in Securities Services and throughput in Market & Wealth Services, with balanced commentary on cost control and capital efficiency. Constructive analysts also point to sequential improvements in net profit and stable net margin levels as indicators that the company can sustain earnings resiliency into the quarter, while cautioning that softer market activity could modestly temper upside but not undermine the core thesis.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
