EVs May Have Short Ranges, But NIO Stock Has A Lot Further To Go

seekingalpha2021-04-09

Summary At this price, NIO offers a very interesting investment opportunity that many institutional investors have already seized. The company continues to show great growth, advancement in its ...

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CWONG
·2021-04-12
Good!
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Venus888
·2021-04-11
I am looking at $100 per share in 3 years.what do you think?
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- Venus888:
  good to add more nio shares when dip
  2021-04-11
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Geniex
·2021-04-09
[齜牙] [齜牙]
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nujnay
·2021-04-09
ooooo
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Zarkness
·2021-04-09
Nio is good. But what’s the fair value??
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- Zarkness:
  Very positive!! Haha
  2021-04-10
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- EV8:
  ??
  2021-04-09
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- Ezumu:
  $100
  2021-04-09
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EvonneL
·2021-04-09
BbB. Nio prices have dropped. Get on a discount.
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- Zarkness:
  What prIce are u looking To buy?
  2021-04-09
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Greenfirefox
·2021-04-09
Gogoogogo
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEVs May Have Short Ranges, But NIO Stock Has A Lot Further To Go\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418174-evs-may-short-ranges-nio-stock-lot-to-go><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAt this price, NIO offers a very interesting investment opportunity that many institutional investors have already seized.\nThe company continues to show great growth, advancement in its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418174-evs-may-short-ranges-nio-stock-lot-to-go\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"NIO","symbol_name":"蔚来","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418174-evs-may-short-ranges-nio-stock-lot-to-go","article_id":"1171495398","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171495398","pubTimestamp":1617955432,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nAt this price, NIO offers a very interesting investment opportunity that many institutional","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"translate_title":"电动汽车可能有短线，但蔚来的股票有更多的未来","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nAt this price, NIO offers a very interesting investment opportunity that many institutional investors have already seized.\nThe company continues to show great growth, advancement in its technology and has the power of the CCP behind it.\nIn this article, I compare NIO to Tesla. Given how the latter has evolved in terms of price and operating performance, NIO could double in the next few months.\n\nThesis Summary\nThe recent sell-off in technology stocks has given us some very attractive stock prices. I believe NIO Limited (NIO) at today’s price, around $40, offers an incredibly attractive investment opportunity. This company has the growth, investor appreciation, and government help to become one of the main players in the EV space. I predict NIO shares could easily double within the next 6 months.\nCompany Overview\nNIO is mostly known for manufacturing Electric Vehicles; but like its American counterpart, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), the company also offers battery and charging solutions/services, such as the Power Home, Power Swap, and Public Charger. The company was founded in 2014 under a different name and has been publicly traded since 2018. To begin this article, I would like to address an issue that has been bothering me since the last quarterly report. NIO shares dropped sharply after the last results, and there seemed to be some consensus that they underperformed. This was not my take.\nNIO did miss EPS and revenue estimates. It lost $0.16 per share, which was $0.10 more than Wall Street estimates. It also missed revenue estimates by $20 million, bringing in “only” $1 billion. However, in what could be considered the most important metric, deliveries, it did well, and the latest March results continue to show just how strong NIO’s growth is:\nSource: NIO Investor Relations\nEven amid a pandemic and with the Chinese New Year in the way, NIO increased deliveries by over 100% YoY and 50% QoQ. In March, NIO delivered 7257 vehicles, increasing by 373% YoY.\nLooking at these numbers, it is hard to believe that only a month ago NIO was trading a good 30% higher than today. But the smart money knows that this is a buying opportunity. In March, Norges Bank, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund,increased its stake in NIO by almost 5000%.\nWhat sets NIO apart\nMany people agree that EVs will be one of the hottest sectors in 2021-2022, but there are still many companies in this area to choose from. I argue in this section that NIO has the best prospects considering growth, valuation, and the regulatory environment.\nDon’t fear China\nThis has been a long-standing claim of mine, and something that I discussed more in-depthin this Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA) article. Some investors will always claim that investing in China is “too risky”. The financial media is full of noise, and part of being an effective investor means blocking it out. While there are certainly “dodgy” companies in China, the same can be said of U.S. companies. Plug Power (PLUG), for example, had to restate its latest financial results due to accounting concerns, something that companies like NIO and BABA have not had to do. It is up to everyone to do their due diligence.\nI feel that investing in Chinese companies makes sense. China is already on track to dethrone the U.S. as the biggest economy in the world. The pandemic may have accelerated this shift. On top of that, China has expressed a commitment towards moving towards EVs.\nSource: McKinsey Report\nAs we can see, McKinsey’s estimates show that China’s EV market was three times the size of the United States and Europe and has grown at a much faster rate. On a final note, if you are concerned that China will do something to hurt EVs, perhaps it is Tesla you should be worried about. While Tesla does produce in Shanghai, it is an American company, and if push comes to shove, I do believe the CCP will protect NIO before it does Tesla.\nTechnology and Supply\nUnlike many of the new names in the speculative EV space, NIO has a proven track record of making cars that work well and can compete with Tesla in terms of price and efficiency. On the latest battery day, NIO announced that by the fourth quarter of 2022, its solid-state 150kWh batteries will be available. This should allow older models to get a range of 528-566 miles and the NIO ET7 up to 620 miles. While there are other factors to take into account with this technology, and we are talking about something that is more than a year away, bear in mind that Tesla’s Model S has about 400 miles of range.\nSpeaking of batteries, it is a well-known fact that these components require raw materials, of which nickel stands out. Over the past few years, nickel’s price and demand have risen considerably, but in a great turn of events for EV manufacturers, and more so NIO, the Chinese are now converting low-grade nickel(NPI) into nickel matte, which has around 65-75% nickel content. Prices have dropped sharply since this news was announced on March 5th, and due to its connections with China and geographical location, NIO is set to benefit the most from this.\nLastly, I am quite optimistic about NIO’s inroads in Autonomous Driving technology. NIO has partnered with Intel's (INTC) Mobileye which I believe has one of the best technologies out there for Autonomous Driving. The latest NIO model, the ET7, alreadyfeatures this technology, and there is even talk that NIO could offer this technology as a service, potentially making it a great software company too.\nFinancial health and ratios\nI am bullish on the EV sector and have exposure to a few companies in it. Having said this, NIO is in my opinion the best option in terms of overall growth and financial health.\nIn the table below, I compare NIO and Tesla today in terms of growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation.\nData Source: Seeking Alpha\nFirst off, NIO is by far the best company in terms of growth, both past and future. This is backed up by our prior analysis of the Chinese economy. The main snag with NIO is its profitability. Both the EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, while Tesla has achieved profitability in the last year. However, this is something to expect with a growth company. The main issue here would be that, since NIO loses money, its financial health may be compromised, but this is not the case right now. NIO has the stronger balance sheet with the highest current and quick ratio, and the lowest proportion of long-term debt/capital.\nIn terms of valuation ratios, NIO does trade at similar though slightly lower valuations than Tesla. Price to Book is significantly lower, which I like.\nNIO: Following the footsteps of Tesla?\nWithout a doubt, I’d say NIO and Tesla have become the most representative companies in the EV sector. Both have some differences, but overall they offer a similar product and address a similar market. Both offer cars that run on electricity using battery technology and price ranges for their cars start at around $60,000. Both NIO and Tesla benefit directly from government subsidies; Tesla through regulatory credits, while NIO has received direct investment from the government, which is also spending a lot on developing the necessary infrastructure to make EVs viable in China.\nPutting a price on NIO (or Tesla) is very hard because many factors are coming into play. However, one interesting hypothesis would be to assume that NIO can achieve similar growth and operating performance as Tesla did during a similar period in relation to when it was founded. The idea here is that since NIO is in a way a “newer version of Tesla”, we can use the past performance of the latter as an indication of where NIO could be heading in terms of growth and profitability.\nI would label this as a conservative hypothesis since the arguments made above are strong indications that NIO could be set to outperform Tesla. Key differences are the fact that Chinese demand is stronger, and profitability could improve thanks to the BaaS model and government subsidies. Also, both NIO and Tesla are and will be even closer to reaping the benefits of AI and driverless technology in the next few years.\nNow let us imagine that NIO does evolve in a similar way to Tesla in terms of its growth and operations. If we look at Tesla’s operations in numbers, we see that as revenue has been growing at a fast pace, gross margin has remained relatively stable, while SG&A cost and investment in R&D have been diminishing gradually, proportional to revenue. The following chart shows the evolution of these items over the last 10 years, as can be found on the public financial statements.\nSource: Author’s work and public financial records. Items in millions of USD. Percentages refer to percentage of revenue.\nWe are going to use a recent EV/Operating Income multiple to get an idea of how NIO could evolve in future years. For that purpose, the following chart estimates Enterprise Value by adding total debt at the end of the year to the approximate market capitalization. It is approximate because we are combining the number of shares outstanding in December, as per the latest financial statements released, with the share price at the end of the following March, coinciding with the time of analysis.\nSource: Author’s work and public financial records. Items in millions of USD except multiples and share price.\nWe can see that the EV/Operating Income multiple was negative for most of the time while Operating Income was negative and peaked in 2019. The 2019 figure is not very relevant, as operations had just about broken even. We will focus on the multiple in 2020, of just over 300.\nMoving on to NIO, our hypothetical exercise of placing it in Tesla’s path brings us to a 7-year difference, with NIO’s 2020 resembling Tesla’s 2013 the most. The following chart shows NIO’s operations in numbers, from 2018 to 2020, adding what the next 7 years could look like if they follow a similar path. The revenue has been estimated based on a smoother version of Tesla’s actual revenue figures, with the relative gross margin and operating expenses evolving gradually to Tesla’s current levels, reaching a similar level in 2027 to Tesla’s 2020. Actual figures are in pink with hypothetical figures in blue. You also have a chart showing the function we used for the revenue path.\n\nSource: Author’s work and public financial records. Items in millions of USD. Percentages refer to percentage of revenue.\nIf we compare the two companies for the first three years (2018 to 2020 for NIO and 2011 to 2013 for Tesla), we see that NIO is a little ahead in revenue and a little behind on margins, but on an improving trajectory.\nFinally, we will use Tesla’s current EV/Operating Income multiple (as we calculated before) to estimate NIO’s potential share price in 7 years. It is impossible to predict how NIO will be financed so far into the future, so we will imagine that along the way they are subjected to the same degree of dilution as Tesla’s shares (same relative increase in the number of shares outstanding) and a similar evolution of the debt to sales ratio. The chart below shows you how this would look by 2027, with a potential share price of over 318. We have skipped the years in between to avoid unnecessary detail in speculation. You also have a chart showing the function we used to estimate total debt in 2027.\n\nSource: Author’s work and public financial records. Items in millions of USD except multiples and share price.\nFinally, with a share price of $318 in 7 years, we have made a simple chart matching a series of hypothetical returns from appreciation over the period for a series of potential current/near future prices, with the current price between the $37-$41 range offering 34-36% return. As you can see, the article thesis that the price could double in the short run would still leave room for a performance above 20%, given this hypothesis.\nSource: Author’s work.\nRisks\nWith all this in mind, it is important to note some significant risks to NIO’s bull thesis. For starters, this is an incredibly competitive space. NIO doesn’t just compete with new EV companies but, as I mentioned before, also competes with many of the old and established carmakers that are perfectly capable of making EVs, have established brands and much larger production capacities. On that note, it is also important to point out that NIO doesn’t yet have a factory of its own, which can be seen as both good and bad, but it poses a risk to its growth.\nFurthermore, while I previously mentioned the new batteries that NIO is producing, overall I believe that Tesla will keep the upper hand in this technology. In an insightful video by Cleanerwatt, the author argues that while NIO batteries will have more energy density, Tesla’s batteries are much more weight-efficient.\nSource: YouTube\nThis is important, but we must also take into account that there is a limit to how powerful these batteries need to be. For now, the range is the biggest issue with EVs, but it won’t be in the future and I believe both NIO and Tesla will work their way around this well enough.\nLastly, there are still lingering and real concerns over the supply of semiconductors, of which we have had shortages in the last few months. NIO’s main calling point right now is growth, and that growth could be severely halted if the chip shortages persist and relationships between China and the U.S. continue to sour. Overall, I believe the Taiwan situation is overhyped, but this is a whole other issue I will have to address in a different article. Nonetheless, the threat is there and some investors are easily spooked.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, there are compelling reasons to believe that NIO could become a key player in the fast-growing EV market in the coming years. If NIO can perform similar to Tesla, the stock should provide investors with significant returns. If anything though, I’d expect NIO to be able to outperform Tesla’s past performance. One could argue that Tesla had a first-mover advantage, but this has also been detrimental to its business. Tesla had to essentially create the EV market and invest billions into infrastructure to make its business model possible. In a way, Tesla has paved the way for NIO and made it much easier for them to enter the market.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":342384283,"gmtCreate":1618185418442,"gmtModify":1704707133567,"author":{"id":"3579300323687385","authorId":"3579300323687385","name":"CWONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579300323687385","authorIdStr":"3579300323687385"},"htmlText":"Good!","listText":"Good!","text":"Good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342384283","repostId":1171495398,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":346794128,"gmtCreate":1618110435364,"gmtModify":1704706689857,"author":{"id":"3572313172431959","authorId":"3572313172431959","name":"Venus888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb10c539f367e4d8f1ae8ddf081bfdf","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572313172431959","authorIdStr":"3572313172431959"},"htmlText":"I am looking at $100 per share in 3 years.what do you think?","listText":"I am looking at $100 per share in 3 years.what do you think?","text":"I am looking at $100 per share in 3 years.what do you think?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346794128","repostId":1171495398,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4006479,"gmtCreate":1618110493745,"gmtModify":1680783608456,"authorId":3572313172431959,"author":{"id":3572313172431959,"idStr":"3572313172431959","authorId":3572313172431959,"name":"Venus888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb10c539f367e4d8f1ae8ddf081bfdf","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":346794128,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"good to add more nio shares when dip","text":"good to add more nio shares when dip","html":"good to add more nio shares when dip"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":346949882,"gmtCreate":1617983153846,"gmtModify":1704705691081,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"htmlText":"[齜牙]&nbsp;[齜牙]&nbsp;","listText":"[齜牙]&nbsp;[齜牙]&nbsp;","text":"[齜牙] [齜牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346949882","repostId":1171495398,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":348479882,"gmtCreate":1617957616646,"gmtModify":1704705299607,"author":{"id":"3562385137512604","authorId":"3562385137512604","name":"nujnay","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562385137512604","authorIdStr":"3562385137512604"},"htmlText":"ooooo","listText":"ooooo","text":"ooooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348479882","repostId":1171495398,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348445396,"gmtCreate":1617957173215,"gmtModify":1704705294046,"author":{"id":"3572916667219493","authorId":"3572916667219493","name":"Zarkness","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8c61830c4883c4232aece921d89d14","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572916667219493","authorIdStr":"3572916667219493"},"htmlText":"Nio is good. But what’s the fair value??&nbsp;","listText":"Nio is good. But what’s the fair value??&nbsp;","text":"Nio is good. But what’s the fair value??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348445396","repostId":1171495398,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3998109,"gmtCreate":1617989765625,"gmtModify":1680783475475,"authorId":3572916667219493,"author":{"id":3572916667219493,"idStr":"3572916667219493","authorId":3572916667219493,"name":"Zarkness","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8c61830c4883c4232aece921d89d14","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.09","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":348445396,"type":1,"supId":3997007,"prevId":0,"content":"Very positive!! Haha","text":"Very positive!! Haha","html":"Very positive!! 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Nio prices have dropped. Get on a discount.&nbsp;","listText":"BbB. Nio prices have dropped. Get on a discount.&nbsp;","text":"BbB. Nio prices have dropped. 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