To The Moon

As the US Treasury prepares for a bond auction scheduled from August 11 to 13, this event is shaping up as a critical test of Bitcoin's ability to withstand pressure from traditional financial markets. The total auction size is $125 billion, with approximately $96.3 billion allocated to refinance privately held debt maturing on August 15, while the remaining $28.7 billion must be raised from the market.

Notably, two inflation data reports will be released just hours before the 10-year and 30-year bond issuances. This timing is designed to observe whether yield increases driven by weak bond demand will exert substantial pressure on Bitcoin's price. From an analytical perspective, Bitcoin's price on Sunday cannot be directly compared with bond interest rates set on Friday, requiring a combined assessment of concurrent inflation data and auction results.

July's auction results provide a benchmark for August: the 3-year and 10-year bonds issued in July saw initial yields decline by 0.6 basis points, while the 30-year bond decreased by 0.3 basis points. Since the US Treasury does not disclose initial yields, this comparison serves only as a supplementary reference. If August's auction performance is weak, beyond lower initial yields, the bid-to-cover ratio and the proportion of indirect bidders may also fall below July's levels for similar maturities. A single data point is insufficient to draw conclusions; the auction size and the results of July's longer-term bond reissuances will all influence the final assessment.