可怕冲击或9月到来！新债王：天量放水严重扭曲经济

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可怕冲击或9月到来！新债王：天量放水严重扭曲经济

腾讯美股 2021-06-10

美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。新债王冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。一方面是后疫情时代的重启步履迟缓，一方面是联邦政府的...

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Comment（20）

SanGuo
·2021-06-11
该关水龙头了[捂脸]
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1
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sgczhao
·2021-06-11
??
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kimxuan
·2021-06-11
来回复谢谢
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1
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- hhyw:
  请回复和点赞
  2021-06-11
  Reply
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高明兴_8399
·2021-06-11
放水
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1
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- 十八顺:
  抽身
  2021-06-11
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YongGuang
·2021-06-11
I哦
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2
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- SanGuo:
  OK
  2021-06-11
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- YongGuangReplying toSanGuo:
  [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]
  2021-06-11
  Reply
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- SanGuo:
  [笑哭]
  2021-06-11
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CKWAI
·2021-06-11
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
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6
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- CKWAI:
  谢谢
  2021-06-11
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进击的徐小伟
·2021-06-11
cpi这么高股市依然涨哎
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2
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AceSU
·2021-06-11
666
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2
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- 阿麦小乔:
  666
  2021-06-11
  Reply
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SunnyLeo
·2021-06-11
还有3个月睡得好？
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1
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- SunnyLeo:
  ???
  2021-06-11
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KenCheng
·2021-06-11
无语
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2
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ccssyy
·2021-06-11
同意
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3
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- ccssyy:
  好
  2021-06-11
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Youn7276
·2021-06-11
大开水龙头。??
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4
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- ECec:
  ?
  2021-06-11
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- Ah_jim:
  t h x
  2021-06-11
  Reply
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- ThangCT:
  Yoyo
  2021-06-11
  Reply
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kinggiles
·2021-06-11
[微笑]
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1
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- kinggiles:
  ?
  2021-07-23
  Reply
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- kinggiles:
  [微笑]
  2021-06-11
  Reply
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SamuelTse
·2021-06-10
?
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1
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laiyuanp
·2021-06-10
还久呢
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Kokmun0087
·2021-06-10
多谢分亨
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Miaw
·2021-06-10
Postpone to Sept now?
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- jianguang:
  Meow
  2021-06-11
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- AB_Iphone:
  You will never know
  2021-06-10
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YongGuang
·2021-06-10
防水？
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1
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- YongGuang:
  ?
  2021-06-10
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李炳华
·2021-06-10
給予回覆，謝謝你
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3
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- Simon00:
  [得意]
  2021-06-10
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economy","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adcd2a1cdf3203f182e3273d61e5bc55","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。新债王冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。\n一方面是后疫情时代的重启步履迟缓，一方面是联邦政府的财政刺激，在双线资本创始人冈拉克（JeffreyGundlach）看来，两者交相作用，已经使得美国经济受到“严重扭曲”。\n这位鼎鼎大名的“债王”在周二的网络广播当中指出，全美层面，无数大大小小的企业都发现，想要招募到足够公司运转下去和扩大经营的人手正变得极端困难。虽然“为数众多的岗位都空缺着，但是却无法及时得到填补，这都是因为联邦政府在同私人企业竞争的缘故”。双线资本旗下管理着超过1400亿美元投资，冈拉克这里所指的，显然是过于慷慨大度的失业救济补贴。在周二长达九十多分钟的网络广播当中，他还谈到了自己对后疫情时代经济的许多其他看法。\n通货膨胀预期\n冈拉克表示，虽然通货膨胀现在正在急速抬头，但是这真的可能只是暂时性的。目前，食品价格高企，制造业库存水平处在近二十年来的最低点。“这些显然都不可能对通货膨胀造成下行的压力。”\n度量全美商品和服务销售价格长期变化的生产者价格指数（PPI）也一直在上涨，但是没有人知道这涨势会持续多久。冈拉克预言说，即便价格还会继续走高，但是指数的上涨速度可能将会放缓。\n被扭曲的部门\n“我们现在并没有真正认真去研究的，其实是经济当中的一些特殊领域，比如二手汽车。”冈拉克分析道，“这些商品的价格在过去一年时间里几乎翻了一番。”他最近还发现，现在二手卡车的价格已经和新卡车相去无几，而且事实上几乎是在全美范围内断货了。“这种局面显然是不可持久的。”冈拉克补充说，这些高企的价格显然“不足以形成反通货膨胀趋势”。\n住宅库存也是经济当中被“高度扭曲”的一个部门。冈拉克指出，现在全美住宅库存已经跌到了多年以来仅见的水平，在一些地区，甚至已经找不到待售的住宅了。他说，在许多地方，房地产经纪商的数量甚至要十倍于他们销售的住宅，“这对于经纪行来说可不是什么好消息”。\n住宅建筑和翻修材料的需求也居高不下，直接导致木材价格大爆炸，加入了其他商品价格暴涨的大军，但是冈拉克认为，这些麻烦可能已经见顶了。\n办公房地产价格还在持续暴跌，入住率持续保持低水平。“虽然经济各个领域当中的复苏都在进行当中，而且还导致了这些通货膨胀压力的出现”，但是大家回公司办公的进程却很迟缓。冈拉克预计说，“除非疫情出现反复”，不然到夏季结束的时候，回去办公的变化就会迎来峰值。\n不过即便如此，企业经营恐怕也不会再像以前那样了。“许多人都表示，希望多一点在家办公的日子，现在虚拟技术已经如此发达，而且现实已经证明，在一些情况下，因为去除了大量沟通的时间，在家上班反而能够提高效率。”\n海外股票与美元\n此前的许多年时间当中，美国股市的表现一直都要好于海外股市。不过近期以来，两者之间的差距正在缩小。“非美股票已经开始与美国股票表现并驾齐驱，不再让后者专美于前。”冈拉克指出，如果美元汇率开始走低，局面就可能变得对海外股票更加有利。他近期已经职业生涯第一次开始投资海外股市。\n“有充分的迹象显示，中期到长期之内，美元将会趋向疲软。”冈拉克补充道，只是短期之内，他会暂时对美元持中立立场。\n长期角度看来，美元汇率最终走低已经是近乎不可改变的趋势，毕竟美国的贸易赤字和预算赤字现在已经“较之我们曾经以为很糟糕的水平又翻了一番”。美国人从政府拿到他们的刺激支票之后，很多人都将其用于购买产品了，而这些产品当中许多都是在亚洲生产的，而这只能让贸易赤字进一步扩大。\n“散户投资者近来异军突起，强势惊人，其实同样是一种扭曲，而其根源就在于来自政府的可任意支配收入。”\n失业救济“冲击”\n在疫情期间，每周首度申报失业救济人数不可避免地大幅增加，而这一数据至今尚未恢复正常水平。各州的失业率虽然已经开始趋向常态，但是要真正正常化完全是“妄想”，冈拉克说，这是因为联邦刺激福利还在持续发放。\n联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。\n这一冲击也许会扭转目前一些令人瞠目结舌的势头，比如住宅和汽车的严重稀缺。冈拉克说，这也许是“认为通货膨胀将只是暂时性现象的最有力根据——不过，这同时也意味着经济可能因此遭遇重大反转”。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":181145122,"gmtCreate":1623381003966,"gmtModify":1704202125710,"author":{"id":"3571627066348611","authorId":"3571627066348611","name":"SanGuo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae7b7834c27e538495b0e677576017b","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"该关水龙头了[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"该关水龙头了[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"该关水龙头了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181145122","repostId":1174161709,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":181926274,"gmtCreate":1623371243998,"gmtModify":1704201825194,"author":{"id":"3564398777411265","authorId":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181926274","repostId":1174161709,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":181939135,"gmtCreate":1623369873027,"gmtModify":1704201755023,"author":{"id":"3573460384591971","authorId":"3573460384591971","name":"kimxuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d7a18ffeb65e33066b9137a4de8f12","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"来回复谢谢","listText":"来回复谢谢","text":"来回复谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181939135","repostId":1174161709,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4675605,"gmtCreate":1623372352559,"gmtModify":1663228411228,"authorId":3561544476596136,"author":{"id":3561544476596136,"authorId":3561544476596136,"name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary 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