To The Moon

For stock investors, accessing Jinqilin analyst research reports provides authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive insights to help uncover potential thematic opportunities. The three major A-share indices collectively opened lower on September 29. During the morning session, both markets fluctuated narrowly around the previous trading day's levels, with over 4,000 stocks closing higher in the morning. In the afternoon, both markets experienced a sharp rally, but trading volume remained sluggish throughout.

From a sector perspective, real estate and cultural media sectors led gains, while circuit boards, Kimi, and virtual human concepts stood out. Petrochemical and shipping sectors lagged with the steepest declines.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3,830.45 points; the Shenzhen Component Index gained 0.34% to 12,901.95 points; and the ChiNext Index added 0.09% to 3,142.56 points. Wind statistics show that across both markets and the Beijing Stock Exchange, 3,469 stocks advanced, 1,926 declined, and 167 remained flat.

Combined trading volume across both markets reached 1.4092 trillion yuan, marking a more than 14-month low and representing a decrease of 293.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day's 1.7028 trillion yuan. Of this, Shanghai market turnover was 661.7 billion yuan, down 142.8 billion yuan from 804.5 billion yuan the prior session, while Shenzhen market turnover was 747.5 billion yuan.

According to Dazhihui VIP, a total of 84 stocks across both markets and the Beijing Stock Exchange rose more than 9%, while 22 stocks fell more than 9%.

Real estate stocks lead gains, oil and petrochemicals lag

In terms of sectors, real estate stocks opened higher and extended gains to lead both markets. Tefa Service (300917), Xinda Real Estate (600657), Huafa Industrial (600325), Binjiang Group (002244), Shenzhen Properties A (000011), China Vanke A (000002), and Hualian Holdings (000036) hit the daily limit or surged over 10%.

CITIC Securities noted that facing pessimistic market expectations formed by the惯性 downward price trend, policies are expected to continue actively stimulating demand, with both supply and demand working together to drive housing prices toward stabilization and recovery. The completed-home sales policy has essentially eliminated delivery risks and boosted consumer confidence. CITIC Securities forecasts that with policy support on both supply and demand fronts, housing prices will stabilize and recover across a broader range by around the Spring Festival in 2027, and the market recovery could accelerate significantly.

Media stocks posted strong gains, with Zhidemai (300785), Huamei Holdings (000607), China Publishing (601949), Xinhua Media (600825), Zongheng Communication (603602), Yinli Media (603598), Zhangyue Technology (603533), and Xinhua Winshare (601811) hitting the daily limit or rising over 10%.

Non-ferrous metals surged significantly in the afternoon, with Sinomine Resource (002738), Jinhui Mining (603132), and Xinjiang Joinworld (600888) gaining over 6%, while Longmag Technology (300835), Fuda Alloy (603045), and Zhongyuan New Material (603527) rose over 3%.

Oil and petrochemicals led declines across both markets, with Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) dropping over 9%, while *ST Zhunyou (002207), Hengli Petrochemical (600346), Eastern Shenghong (000301), Tongkun Group (601233), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) fell over 3%.

Coal stocks performed poorly, with Yunmei Energy (600792), Jinkong Coal Industry (601001), Hengyuan Coal Power (600971), Dayou Energy (600403), Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699), and Huaibei Mining (600985) declining over 2%.

Transportation stocks posted some of the steepest declines, with Cosco Shipping Energy (600026), Cosco Shipping Specialized (600428), and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) falling over 3%, while Sanyangma (001317), Xiamen Port Authority (000905), and Eastern Air Logistics (601156) dropped over 2%.

Technology remains the medium-term mainline

Open Source Securities research report suggests that the market is in a context of "long narratives unbroken, new narratives not yet emerged, crowding initially easing," and investors can actively participate in the technology "rebound—high-volatility oscillation"行情, continuing to seize rebalancing opportunities brought by the扩散 of profit effects and thematic opportunities with "narrative tension." Technology remains the medium-term mainline, and the difficulty of achieving a broad-based Beta rally has clearly increased, with future gains coming more from re-screening within the technology sector. In terms of allocation, continue to seek the intersection of "second ignition + narrative tension," focusing on AI materials, domestic computing power chains, PCB and optical module upstream in overseas computing power chains, AI application directions such as programming Agents and enterprise-level Agents, as well as new prosperity directions formed by technology spillovers including power equipment, electricity, energy metals, and liquid cooling.

Soochow Securities pointed out in a recent research report that A-shares often exhibit the characteristic of "volume contraction before the holiday, volume expansion after" around the National Day holiday. Historical data shows that pre-holiday market volume typically begins to decline from T-8 days (T being National Day), and the volume contraction trend usually continues through the first trading day after the holiday. From T+2 onward, the market volume center of gravity significantly rises, and on-market liquidity gradually recovers.

Yang Chao, Chief Strategist at China Galaxy Securities, noted that post-holiday行情 leans more toward structural rotation, with October entering the third-quarter earnings verification window. In the fourth quarter, expectations for stabilizing growth and market policies are heating up, monetary policy emphasizes "counter-cyclical" adjustment, and for the first time proposes strengthening financial support for the construction of the "six networks," with dense policy signals on the real estate front. Externally, disturbances such as high US Treasury yields, repeated geopolitical conflicts, and US midterm elections still need to be tracked, but the market has already fairly fully anticipated and priced in several negative factors.

The China Merchants Securities strategy team stated that it is advisable to maintain a neutral-to-bullish position around the long holiday, seizing structural opportunities centered on industry prosperity and earnings realization while coping with external disturbances. The team noted that this year's pre-holiday market was oscillating and weak, and the earlier adjustment created conditions for repair after expectation improvement, but the US-Iran situation, oil prices, and US employment and inflation data could still drive repeated interest rate hike expectations. Therefore, pre-holiday weakness cannot directly lead to post-holiday gains, and subsequent attention should be paid to whether external risks can ease and whether capital absorption improves.

Hua Jin Securities analyst Deng Lijun focused on reviewing post-National Day holiday performance. He stated that A-shares mostly rise in the short term after the National Day holiday, mainly influenced by policy and external events, liquidity, fundamentals, and overseas stock market performance during the holiday. According to his statistics, since 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index rose within 5 trading days after the National Day holiday in 11 out of 16 years, with an average gain of 1.53%. Deng Lijun noted that when policies and external events are positive, post-holiday gains are likely; when tightening or external shocks occur, weakness is likely. When liquidity is loose, the market strengthens after the holiday; when tight, it tends to be weak. Fundamentals and overseas stock market performance during the holiday also correlate with post-holiday trends.

The Zheshang Securities strategy team also pointed out that the Shanghai Composite Index still holds the lower bound of the 3,850–4,000 point range and retains momentum for oscillating rebounds. The STAR 50's pullback last week still falls within the category of a strong adjustment. The Hang Seng Tech Index, which has been leading in同期 performance, has already shown clear bottoming characteristics. In terms of timing, it recommends maintaining the current medium-term position unchanged, not being affected by holiday effects before the holiday, and appropriately increasing allocation on dips after the holiday.

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