Morgan Stanley, Goldman Say Earnings Are Biggest Risk for Stocks

Bloomberg2022-12-12

This week’s US inflation print and Federal Reserve decision might be at the forefront of most investors’ minds, but for some of Wall Street’s most prominent strategists it’s the prospect of future ...

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blessed_1
·2022-12-12
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·2022-12-12
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The consumer price index reading and Fed meeting are “yesterday’s news,” said the strategist, who ranked No. 1 in the latest Institutional Investor survey.Both Wilson and Kostin see a tough start to 2023 for equities, following a year in which many major indexes fell into bear markets before a fourth-quarter rally. Soaring inflation and rising interest rates have until now been central to investor concerns, and that’s likely to remain the case — for the short-term, at least.The Fed on Wednesday isset to raiseits key rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.5%, the highest since 2007, and to signal more increases in early 2023. The day before that, November’s consumer price index is expected to show that while inflation is decelerating, it remains too high for comfort. The S&P 500 slid 3.4% last week on concerns that a strong US economy will keep the Fed on its aggressive policy tightening path, putting the benchmark on track for its worst year since 2008.Looking further ahead, Wilson expects a very challenging environment for earnings in 2023 as “costs will remain elevated and prices received by companies will fall.” His Goldman Sachs counterpart is of a similar view, saying margins could weigh on estimates more than forecast. Kostin’s team expects no appreciation in either profit or the S&P 500 next year.Goldman sees the benchmarkending the yearat 4,000, while Wilson expects it to close at 3,900 points, roughly in line with current levels.And while an informal survey of 134 fund managers conducted by Bloombergshowedsome of the world’s biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, not everyone is convinced by this scenario.“Many investors have a more bearish equity market outlook than we do,” Kostin wrote. 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