Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company

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Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company

seekingalpha2021-07-26

Summary Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue. In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the ...

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Jason7890
·2021-07-26
Err.. they only realize now? Maybe a call for FOMO buy for them to dump
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50c6217b
·2021-07-26
Another smart move?
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SHAJ
·2021-07-26
Greed foot in the door
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RebornNg
·2021-07-26
It will be
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- Gracejul:
  Great! Like pls
  2021-07-26
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DanVI
·2021-07-26
???? ? pls like. Thanks ?
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wallence82
·2021-07-26
Subscription to FSD
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- CeciLi:
  Ok
  2021-07-26
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- DanVI:
  Hopefully will ???
  2021-07-26
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- Sayaka:
  yay
  2021-07-26
  Reply
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSLA","symbol_name":"特斯拉","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","article_id":"1175108896","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"特斯拉可能会成为一家订阅公司","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":800669842,"gmtCreate":1627298559086,"gmtModify":1703487045209,"author":{"id":"3559732583760300","authorId":"3559732583760300","name":"Jason7890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f2abf8ef7cf6c1e2a2371d9882f2b91","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559732583760300","authorIdStr":"3559732583760300"},"htmlText":"Err.. they only realize now? Maybe a call for FOMO buy for them to dump","listText":"Err.. they only realize now? Maybe a call for FOMO buy for them to dump","text":"Err.. they only realize now? Maybe a call for FOMO buy for them to dump","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800669842","repostId":1175108896,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175108896?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li>\n <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li>\n <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li>\n <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p>\n<p>And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p>\n<p><b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p>\n<p>Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p>\n<p>I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p>\n<blockquote>\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Of course, the stock sees results too:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p>\n<p>In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p>\n<p>Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p>\n<p><b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p>Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p>\n<p>Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p>\n<p>From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p>\n<p>Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p>\n<p>First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p>\n<p>Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p>\n<p><b>Technical Bullishness</b></p>\n<p>From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p>\n<p><b>Options Strategy</b></p>\n<p>If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li>\n <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Net credit: $7000</p>\n<p>This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p>\n<p>Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p>\n<p>I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":800614651,"gmtCreate":1627297499273,"gmtModify":1703487025946,"author":{"id":"4088575303240610","authorId":"4088575303240610","name":"50c6217b","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088575303240610","authorIdStr":"4088575303240610"},"htmlText":"Another smart move?","listText":"Another smart move?","text":"Another smart move?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800614651","repostId":1175108896,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175108896?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li>\n <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li>\n <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li>\n <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p>\n<p>And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p>\n<p><b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p>\n<p>Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p>\n<p>I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p>\n<blockquote>\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Of course, the stock sees results too:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p>\n<p>In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p>\n<p>Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p>\n<p><b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p>Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p>\n<p>Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p>\n<p>From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p>\n<p>Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p>\n<p>First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p>\n<p>Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p>\n<p><b>Technical Bullishness</b></p>\n<p>From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p>\n<p><b>Options Strategy</b></p>\n<p>If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li>\n <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Net credit: $7000</p>\n<p>This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p>\n<p>Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p>\n<p>I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":800611028,"gmtCreate":1627297137464,"gmtModify":1703487018443,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"htmlText":"Greed foot in the door","listText":"Greed foot in the door","text":"Greed foot in the door","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800611028","repostId":1175108896,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175108896?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li>\n <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li>\n <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li>\n <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p>\n<p>And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p>\n<p><b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p>\n<p>Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p>\n<p>I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p>\n<blockquote>\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Of course, the stock sees results too:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p>\n<p>In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p>\n<p>Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p>\n<p><b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p>Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p>\n<p>Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p>\n<p>From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p>\n<p>Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p>\n<p>First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p>\n<p>Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p>\n<p><b>Technical Bullishness</b></p>\n<p>From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p>\n<p><b>Options Strategy</b></p>\n<p>If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li>\n <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Net credit: $7000</p>\n<p>This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p>\n<p>Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p>\n<p>I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":800853829,"gmtCreate":1627292631561,"gmtModify":1703486929106,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"htmlText":"It will be","listText":"It will be","text":"It will be","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800853829","repostId":1175108896,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175108896?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li>\n <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li>\n <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li>\n <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p>\n<p>And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p>\n<p><b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p>\n<p>Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p>\n<p>I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p>\n<blockquote>\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Of course, the stock sees results too:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p>\n<p>In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p>\n<p>Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p>\n<p><b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p>Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p>\n<p>Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p>\n<p>From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p>\n<p>Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p>\n<p>First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p>\n<p>Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p>\n<p><b>Technical Bullishness</b></p>\n<p>From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p>\n<p><b>Options Strategy</b></p>\n<p>If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li>\n <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Net credit: $7000</p>\n<p>This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p>\n<p>Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p>\n<p>I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5333230,"gmtCreate":1627292960573,"gmtModify":1663231507728,"authorId":3580616876327884,"author":{"id":3580616876327884,"idStr":"3580616876327884","authorId":3580616876327884,"name":"Gracejul","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb0939e0d9d3089392b067e791d69f3","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.01","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":800853829,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Great! Like pls","text":"Great! Like pls","html":"Great! Like pls"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":800869818,"gmtCreate":1627291331334,"gmtModify":1703486898303,"author":{"id":"3575890735190983","authorId":"3575890735190983","name":"DanVI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/478c2cb5a178cff7532f6fa9a68068b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575890735190983","authorIdStr":"3575890735190983"},"htmlText":"???? ? pls like. Thanks ?&nbsp;","listText":"???? ? pls like. Thanks ?&nbsp;","text":"???? ? pls like. Thanks ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800869818","repostId":1175108896,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175108896?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li>\n <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li>\n <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li>\n <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p>\n<p>And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p>\n<p><b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p>\n<p>Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p>\n<p>I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p>\n<blockquote>\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Of course, the stock sees results too:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p>\n<p>In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p>\n<p>Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p>\n<p><b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p>Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p>\n<p>Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p>\n<p>From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p>\n<p>Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p>\n<p>First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p>\n<p>Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p>\n<p><b>Technical Bullishness</b></p>\n<p>From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p>\n<p><b>Options Strategy</b></p>\n<p>If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li>\n <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Net credit: $7000</p>\n<p>This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p>\n<p>Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p>\n<p>I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":800883549,"gmtCreate":1627290749681,"gmtModify":1703486885571,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"htmlText":"Subscription to FSD","listText":"Subscription to FSD","text":"Subscription to FSD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800883549","repostId":1175108896,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175108896?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li>\n <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li>\n <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li>\n <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p>\n<p>And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p>\n<p><b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p>\n<p>Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p>\n<p>I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p>\n<blockquote>\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Of course, the stock sees results too:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p>\n<p>In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p>\n<p>Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p>\n<p><b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p>Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p>\n<p>Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p>\n<p>From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p>\n<p>Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p>\n<p>First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p>\n<p>Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p>\n<p><b>Technical Bullishness</b></p>\n<p>From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p>\n<p>With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p>\n<p><b>Options Strategy</b></p>\n<p>If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li>\n <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Net credit: $7000</p>\n<p>This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p>\n<p>Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p>\n<p>I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5332947,"gmtCreate":1627291445982,"gmtModify":1663231507339,"authorId":3580709888891343,"author":{"id":3580709888891343,"idStr":"3580709888891343","authorId":3580709888891343,"name":"CeciLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c84d7339be75b2d5f77e2eee702149e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":800883549,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5332935,"gmtCreate":1627291373971,"gmtModify":1663231506543,"authorId":3575890735190983,"author":{"id":3575890735190983,"idStr":"3575890735190983","authorId":3575890735190983,"name":"DanVI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/478c2cb5a178cff7532f6fa9a68068b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":800883549,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hopefully will ???","text":"Hopefully will ???","html":"Hopefully will ???"},{"id":5332895,"gmtCreate":1627291189612,"gmtModify":1663231506339,"authorId":3575357760164357,"author":{"id":3575357760164357,"idStr":"3575357760164357","authorId":3575357760164357,"name":"Sayaka","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ba234a6653e4f0c99910e770326f38","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.28%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":800883549,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>yay</u>","text":"<u>yay</u>","html":"<u>yay</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":42,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}