美股能否打破“九月魔咒”？

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美股能否打破“九月魔咒”？

国际金融报2021-09-01

CFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。据CFRA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall的统计，9月是标普500指数一年中表现最糟糕的月份，自1945年以来平均跌幅为0.56%。 CFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。今年以来，美股气势如虹，当地时间8月30日，...

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实话
·2021-09-01
好，很好，非常好！
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yuilow
·2021-09-01
?
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Stovall的统计，9月是标普500指数一年中表现最糟糕的月份，自1945年以来平均跌幅为0.56%。\nCFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。\n今年以来，美股气势如虹，当地时间8月30日，标普500指数涨0.43%，报4528.79点，创下今年第53次收盘新高纪录。\n美股能否继续高歌猛进，打破“九月魔咒”？\n企业高收益支撑牛市表现\n贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder近日表示，主要企业的强劲收益和现金流意味着美股应该能够维持创纪录的高位。\n据高盛最近研究显示，预期标普500指数成分股公司2021年将追加现金支出，至2.8万亿美元，主要用于资本支出、合并或其他类型的业务投资。与此同时，截至7月，各公司已批准超过6800亿美元的股票回购，此数据仅次于2018年创下的2000年以来最高水平。\n《华尔街日报》指出，这意味着形势与去年相比有了天壤之别，去年各公司为了应对疫情的干扰，曾大幅削减支出，下调股息，还放缓了股票回购计划，同时大举借贷以增强其资产负债表。反观当下，在经济复苏的情况下，企业现金充裕，总体而言都在发布增加支出的计划。\nRieder指出，零售商强劲的财报和科技企业的利润率证明，即使股指创下历史新高，许多股票的回报率仍具有吸引力。他表示，有些股票确实太高了，但不是整个市场。\n美银证券上周的数据显示，企业回购股票规模达到3月中旬以来的最高水平，这是支撑股市的一个潜在因素。美银表示，回购企业以金融股为主，创下2010年以来的最高单周回购额。\n瑞银集团上周上调了标准普尔500指数成分股每股获利预估，称其对经济前景看好。“由于美国家庭去年积累了数万亿美元的储蓄，消费者的资产负债表达到了几十年来的最高水平。此外，就业正在复苏，最近的就业数据好于预期。因此，即使在疫情最严重的时候，消费者支出得到了政府刺激计划的补贴，持续的就业增长应该会推动消费者支出上升”。\n本周五，美国劳工部将公布8月非农业就业报告，经济学家预期新增就业人口将达75万人，相较于7月的大增94.3万人。8月失业率估计由5.4％下降至5.2％。\n或出现高达10%的回调\n尽管市场上仍充斥着乐观情绪，但上周，“股神”巴菲特青睐的市场指标飙升至205%的创纪录高点。\n所谓的“巴菲特指标”，是指美股总市值与美国GDP之比，被投资者和研究人士广泛用来衡量美股是否过热。巴菲特曾将这一指标形容为“任何时刻衡量估值水平的最佳单一指标”。达到创纪录高点表明，当前股票估值过高，崩盘可能即将来临。\n上周，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊·霍尔央行年会上表示，美联储可能在今年年底前开始缩减资产购买，不过他仍认为加息的可能性还很遥远。\n鲍威尔强调，缩减资产购买的时机和速度，不会对加息时机发出直接信号。鲍威尔还援引上世纪50年代的货币政策经验教训称，如果冒然采取了遏制暂时通胀的“不合时宜的政策”，可能带来更大的伤害。\n摩根士丹利指出，随着创纪录的GDP和公司盈利增长、通胀上升以及德尔塔感染率开始下行，美联储取消货币宽松政策的压力可能增大，美联储最快有可能在9月的议息会议上宣布缩表决定。同时，从历史表现来看，9月往往是美股全年表现最疲软的月份，所以投资者需要警惕美股可能会出现高达10%的回调。\n此外，根据来自Refinitiv旗下IBES的统计数据，随着美国经济从疫情封锁中持续复苏，标普500指数成份股公司第二季度利润同比增长95%，创1994年启动统计以来的最高纪录。不过，强劲反弹的势头即将戛然而止，机构分析师预测，三季度美国企业盈利增速将大幅回落至30%。\n花旗首席股票策略师Tobias Levkovich从今年6月就预计标普500指数今年年终前会下跌至4000点左右，并预计美股的调整最快可能就在9月。他给出的四个值得市场担忧的因素包括美联储缩减购债、通胀不断上升、企业利润率压力和企业税上调。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":816988907,"gmtCreate":1630460561209,"gmtModify":1676530309145,"author":{"id":"3577150450023006","authorId":"3577150450023006","name":"实话","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88c83414ff65a4ec9fbed6636e2c40c9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577150450023006","authorIdStr":"3577150450023006"},"htmlText":"好，很好，非常好！","listText":"好，很好，非常好！","text":"好，很好，非常好！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816988907","repostId":1175658304,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":816042982,"gmtCreate":1630457637246,"gmtModify":1676530307568,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorIdStr":"4088483890194020"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816042982","repostId":1175658304,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":38,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}