On December 24, London spot gold prices surged to an unprecedented $4,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of over 70%. Driven by international momentum, domestic gold prices also breached key levels, with Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au99.99 surpassing 1,000 yuan per gram on December 23 and continuing its upward trajectory.
Zheshang Securities noted that multiple factors—including geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, potential conflicts between Iran and Israel, uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine war, a weaker U.S. dollar, and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts—are fueling gold’s rally.
As gold’s bull run defies expectations, Dongfang Jincheng maintains a bullish outlook, citing three key drivers: rising U.S. debt risks diminishing the appeal of dollar assets, strong central bank demand for gold, and anticipated Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Copper prices also hit record highs, with LME copper futures surpassing $12,000 per ton for the first time on December 24, peaking at $12,133. Year-to-date, copper has surged over 38%, on track for its largest annual gain since 2009. Supply disruptions, industrial demand recovery, tariff concerns, and Fed easing expectations are driving the rally.
Citi Group projects copper could reach $15,000 per ton in a bullish scenario, supported by a weaker dollar and Fed rate cuts.
Beyond gold and copper, the broader nonferrous metals sector offers diversified exposure—from precious metals like gold for hedging to strategic metals like lithium (benefiting from EVs) and rare earths (critical for advanced manufacturing), as well as industrial metals like copper and aluminum tied to economic recovery and infrastructure growth.
CSC Financial highlights nonferrous metals as a core long-term allocation, given their supply-demand resilience, policy tailwinds, and safe-haven appeal amid heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility.
Market outlook remains optimistic: Zhongtai Securities foresees a sustained bull run, CSC Financial expects further upside, and CITIC Securities sees continued commodity investment momentum.
On December 24, the nonferrous metals sector pared gains after an early rally, with Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876), the largest of its kind, rising 0.52% intraday after a 1.25% peak. The ETF attracted 9.81 million yuan in inflows, signaling strong investor confidence.
**Cyclical Upswing: The "Nonferrous Bull" Persists** Given divergent drivers across metals, a diversified approach—such as through broad-based ETFs like Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141)—can capture sector-wide beta while mitigating single-commodity risks.
*Risk Disclosure: The ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (base date: 2013.12.31; launched: 2015.7.13). Past index performance (2020: +35.84%; 2021: +35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: +2.96%) does not indicate future results. Fund risk rating: R3 (moderate), suitable for balanced (C3) or higher risk-profile investors. This content does not constitute investment advice.*
