To The Moon

From October 20 to 22, by the banks of Shanghai's Huangpu River, the 2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference returns once again. Nobel Prize and Turing Award winners will take the stage to discuss the future and trends of technology, and the internet-famous professor who "rescues" people from anxiety and involution-era stress, Macfarlane, will hold a live dialogue with Xiang Biao. Limited seats available, first come first served. Let us journey together toward sustainability. ICBC (601398.SH, 01398.HK), the "Universe Bank," may further strengthen its credit extension capacity. Recently, ICBC disclosed an announcement stating that the bank's 2026 Tier 2 Capital Bond (Sixth Tranche) (Bond Connect) had been fully issued in the national interbank bond market, raising a total of RMB 60 billion. After deducting issuance expenses, the proceeds will supplement the bank's Tier 2 capital and further improve its capital adequacy ratio. Echoing the bond issuance to supplement capital, ICBC has recently shown strong performance in the secondary market. On October 14, the bank's A-share price hit an intraday high of RMB 8.54, refreshing its all-time high since listing; its total market capitalization at close that day exceeded RMB 3 trillion, the first time since its A+H listing in 2006. As of the close on October 16, ICBC's total market capitalization reached RMB 3.02 trillion.

Reporters noted that ICBC's capital adequacy ratio has been on an overall declining trend since the end of 2024, falling from 19.39% at the end of 2024 to 18.76% at the end of 2025, and further to 18.57% at the end of June 2026. Under pressure from capital consumption, while the bank is supplementing Tier 2 capital through this Tier 2 capital bond issuance, a hundred-billion-level private placement to replenish core Tier 1 capital is also being advanced in parallel. On October 14, ICBC further disclosed an announcement on the implementation of dividend distribution, with the record date set for October 20, and cash dividends to be paid on October 21. Among the interim dividend rankings of the six major state-owned banks, ICBC's dividend payout of RMB 53.853 billion ranks first, higher than China Construction Bank's RMB 52.582 billion and Agricultural Bank of China's RMB 45.393 billion.

Bond Issuance to Supplement Tier 2 Capital

On October 15, ICBC issued an announcement regarding the completion of the issuance of its 2026 Tier 2 Capital Bond (Sixth Tranche) (Bond Connect). With approval from relevant regulatory authorities, this tranche of bonds has recently been fully issued in the national interbank bond market. It is understood that the total issuance scale of this tranche of bonds is RMB 60 billion, divided into two varieties. Among them, Variety One is a 10-year fixed-rate bond with an issuance scale of RMB 30 billion, with a conditional issuer redemption right at the end of the 5th year, and a coupon rate of 1.76%; Variety Two is a 15-year fixed-rate bond with an issuance scale of RMB 30 billion, with a conditional issuer redemption right at the end of the 10th year, and a coupon rate of 1.95%. After deducting issuance expenses, the proceeds from this tranche of bonds will be used to supplement the bank's Tier 2 capital. As an important tool for commercial banks to supplement Tier 2 capital, Tier 2 capital bonds play a key role in enhancing banks' capital adequacy ratios and strengthening risk resistance capabilities. Reporters noted that ICBC's capital adequacy ratio has been in a declining channel over the past two years. According to financial report data, at the end of 2024, the bank's capital adequacy ratio was 19.39%, which fell to 18.76% at the end of 2025, and further dropped to 18.57% at the end of June 2026. The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio also declined simultaneously, falling from 14.10% and 15.36% at the end of 2024 to 13.57% and 14.94% at the end of 2025, and reaching 13.21% and 14.43% at the end of June 2026. Nevertheless, the above indicators remain far above regulatory requirements. According to the Capital Management Measures for Commercial Banks and the additional capital requirements for global systemically important banks, ICBC's regulatory minimums for core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and capital adequacy ratio are 9%, 10%, and 12% respectively, and the bank's current levels all maintain sufficient safety buffers. The successful issuance of RMB 60 billion in capital bonds this time will directly supplement Tier 2 capital and improve the total capital level. It is worth noting that the two varieties of this tranche of bonds carry issuer redemption rights at the end of the 5th year and the 10th year respectively, providing ICBC with flexibility in future capital planning and market interest rate changes. If market interest rates decline significantly in the future, ICBC can choose to redeem the bonds and refinance at lower cost; conversely, if the market environment remains stable, continuing to hold the bonds can ensure long-term stable capital supplementation. The increase in Tier 2 capital directly enriches the bank's total capital, which helps ICBC further enhance its risk resistance capabilities on the basis of meeting regulatory requirements, providing more solid capital protection for business expansion. In fact, in addition to Tier 2 capital bonds, ICBC's arrangements to supplement core Tier 1 capital are also being advanced in parallel. On September 6, the bank announced a plan to issue A-shares to the Ministry of Finance, China Tobacco Corporation, and related subsidiaries through a targeted placement, with total proceeds not exceeding RMB 100 billion, of which the Ministry of Finance intends to subscribe RMB 70 billion, with all proceeds used to supplement core Tier 1 capital; the application was accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on October 8, and the reply to the first round of review inquiry letters was completed on October 14. Once the private placement is completed, the bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio will be directly enhanced.

Market Cap Breaks RMB 3 Trillion for First Time in 20 Years Since Listing

Recently, the banking sector has continued to strengthen, becoming a bright spot in a volatile market. On October 8, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, the three major A-share indices all closed lower in morning trading, while the banking sector rose against the trend; subsequently, the sector's momentum remained strong. On October 12, ICBC, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and China CITIC Bank collectively refreshed their all-time highs since listing during intraday trading; on October 14, the sector rallied again, with ICBC, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Bank of Communications all hitting record highs. Among them, ICBC's performance was the most notable. During intraday trading on October 14, the bank's A-share price reached RMB 8.54 per share, refreshing its all-time high since listing; its total market capitalization at close that day exceeded RMB 3 trillion, the first time since its A+H listing in 2006. In fact, this was a continuation of ICBC's sustained strength since late September—on September 30, the bank's shares hit RMB 8.30 per share intraday; on October 8, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, they reached RMB 8.38 per share; on October 12, the intraday high was RMB 8.44 per share. Within just half a month, ICBC's stock price repeatedly climbed to new highs. Behind the strengthening stock price is the steady support of fundamentals. The 2026 semi-annual report disclosed on August 28 showed that in the first half of the year, ICBC achieved operating revenue of RMB 465.859 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 173.682 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. In terms of asset scale, total assets at the end of June reached RMB 57.07 trillion, an increase of 6.7% from the end of the previous year, ranking first among global commercial banks; customer deposits were RMB 39.17 trillion, an increase of 5.0% from the end of the previous year; various loans totaled RMB 31.99 trillion, an increase of 4.9% from the end of the previous year. Asset quality remained stable. At the end of June, ICBC's non-performing loan ratio was 1.29%, down 0.02 percentage points from the beginning of the year; the provision coverage ratio was 217.58%, up 3.98 percentage points from the beginning of the year, further enhancing risk compensation capabilities. Reporters noted that ICBC's net interest margin remains under pressure, with the bank's net interest margin in the first half of the year at 1.29%, down 1 basis point year-on-year, but the decline has significantly narrowed. Management stated at the results briefing that the stabilization of interest margin was mainly due to more appropriate liability costs and continuous optimization of the liability structure, rather than relying solely on asset-side repricing. On top of steady performance, ICBC continues to increase shareholder returns. On August 28, the bank's board of directors recommended the distribution of interim ordinary share cash dividends for 2026, at RMB 1.511 per 10 shares (including tax), with a total dividend payout of approximately RMB 53.853 billion, accounting for 31.0% of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, an increase of 1 percentage point from 30.0% in the same period last year. On October 14, the bank disclosed an announcement on the implementation of dividend distribution, with the record date set for October 20, and cash dividends to be paid to shareholder accounts on October 21. It is worth mentioning that the 2026 interim dividend marks the third consecutive year that major state-owned banks have implemented interim dividends, and for the first time, the dividend ratio of all six major banks was collectively raised from 30% to 31%. Data shows that ICBC's RMB 53.853 billion, China Construction Bank's RMB 52.582 billion, Agricultural Bank of China's RMB 45.393 billion, Bank of China's RMB 38.343 billion, Postal Savings Bank of China's RMB 15.973 billion, and Bank of Communications' RMB 14.845 billion, with the six major banks' interim total payout reaching RMB 220.989 billion, and ICBC's dividend amount ranking first among the six major banks. In a low interest rate environment, the dividend yields of major banks continue to outperform fixed deposits and bank wealth management returns, becoming the core bottom position for long-term institutional allocations such as insurance funds and social security funds. High dividend yields combined with expectations of stabilizing interest margins, the implementation of interim dividends, and the certainty of hundred-billion-level private placements to supplement capital are jointly driving a repricing of funds toward state-owned major bank assets, which is also an important factor behind ICBC's stock price repeatedly hitting new highs.