The “Archegos’ Loss is Your Gain” Stock Market

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The “Archegos’ Loss is Your Gain” Stock Market

zerohedge2021-05-13

Last week we spoke about opportunities starting to present themselves in selectiveChinese Stocks and “Broken SPACs/SPAC warrants.” On Friday, I joined Liz Claman on Fox Business, “The Claman Countdown...

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Ericlam
·2021-05-14
Going to take some risk at Chinese stock
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- SR050321Replying toEriclam:
  Thanks
  2021-05-14
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- Ericlam:
  Nice
  2021-05-14
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- SR050321:
  True !
  2021-05-14
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Cccccccccccc
·2021-05-14
Uu
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1
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- Ericlam:
  Nice
  2021-05-14
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- Yangie:
  Stay away
  2021-05-14
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DZJ1976
·2021-05-14
Dang dip kept dipping, but this article did make me feel less retarded for buying!
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alicegcw
·2021-05-14
? ?
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- Ericlam:
  Nice
  2021-05-14
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- Lalalanana:
  Oh
  2021-05-14
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- gemini_lydia:
  ok
  2021-05-14
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SQ88
·2021-05-14
buy more
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- SQ88:
  sure bro
  2021-05-14
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- JLWT:
  comment
  2021-05-14
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- SQ88:
  comment again plz
  2021-05-14
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HengKuan
·2021-05-14
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- Ken_Ang:
  [强]
  2021-05-14
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- EdwardKarchi:
  Done, please comment back
  2021-05-14
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Kevin92
·2021-05-14
Like and comment
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5
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- Zfron:
  Ok
  2021-05-14
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CharlesKing
·2021-05-14
Like and comment plz???
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- Yazuu:
  Ok like and comment back
  2021-05-14
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- MichelleTSL:
  Ok dOne
  2021-05-14
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AJAJ
·2021-05-14
Ok
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- Ericlam:
  Nice
  2021-05-14
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chandra
·2021-05-14
Please like and comment
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- YS_ZENG:
  Done
  2021-05-14
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kcwang4982
·2021-05-14
?
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- Ericlam:
  Nice
  2021-05-14
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BigMac8885
·2021-05-14
Pls like and comment
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- Ericlam:
  Nice
  2021-05-14
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- BigMac8885:
  Thanks
  2021-05-14
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- BigMac8885:
  Thanks
  2021-05-14
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Shirron
·2021-05-14
Interesting
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- Ericlam:
  Nice
  2021-05-14
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VSkemama
·2021-05-14
Like n comment pls
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- Huat899:
  Pls like and comment back, thanks
  2021-05-14
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- Yamazaki月:
  done plsreturn
  2021-05-14
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- dpyc:
  Pl like too
  2021-05-14
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2TheMoon
·2021-05-14
Refreshing way to see the drop in market.
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- Huat899:
  Pls like and comment back, thanks
  2021-05-14
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- LoveYa:
  So long someone loss moRe!
  2021-05-14
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- 2TheMoon:
  Especially the someone is the hedgeFund [Grin]
  2021-05-14
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WVY
·2021-05-14
Oh BABA
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- Ericlam:
  Nice
  2021-05-14
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Jassss
·2021-05-14
Like and comment pls
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- Jassss:
  Comment back pls
  2021-05-14
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- hwhw123:
  like and comment please
  2021-05-14
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ELJAY
·2021-05-14
Read
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- Ericlam:
  Nice
  2021-05-14
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PooYen
·2021-05-14
Please like and comment. Thanks. [Smile] [Happy] [Smile] [Happy] [Smile] [Happy]
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- hwhw123:
  exchange like and comments
  2021-05-14
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AndreR93
·2021-05-14
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a number of the stocks I was adding happened to overlap with the same stocks that Archegos and the prime brokerages/banks were forced to liquidate in recent weeks – as the fund went bankrupt due to excessive leverage.\nThe natural sector/stock corrections werecompoundedby forced sellers – who sold billions of notional value in the following stocks that were used to hedge (the total return swaps) and now had to liquidate – as Bill Hwang’s family office unwound.  In other words, the bargains are steeper than they would have been due to the structural mechanics.  It seemed coincident until it clicked.\nSo what names got overdone from the unwind (Bloomberg)?  Chinese: IQ, HUYA, BABA, GOTU (GSX), BIDU, TME, VIPS.  Other: VIAC, DISCA, FTCH.\nThese are especially interesting, not only because they are all trading at meaningful discounts relative to their 3-5 year outlooks, but also because they were top holdings of a guy who quietly turned $200M into a $20B personal fortune in less than a decade – largely betting on Asian stocks (peak wealth was $30B) (Bloomberg).\nIt worked until it didn’t.  Apparently, Archegos (the name of Bill Hwang’s Family Office), is a Greek word used in the New Testament to refer to Jesus.  Hwang should have known from his devout Christian studies that Jesus not only had to pay taxes, but apparently he had to pay margin calls as well…\nThe moral of the story is that Hwang’s picks will likely prove to be very valuable (as he was one of the best pickers of Asian stocks in the business), however the key is not to leverage up $5B into $100B notional – no matter how high your level of conviction is.\nThe opportunity is to take the good that the market correction is serving up, with the “edge” of Bill Hwang (a peerless picker of Asian stocks) and take advantage of the rare dislocation opportunity currently available.\nHere is a sampling of Chinese stocks that are down ~30-75% in the last few months (most of which were owned/impacted by the liquidation of Archegos):\nCharting Source: FinViz\nAs I love to say, “Wall Street is the only place on earth that when they hold a clearance sale, no one shows up!”  We’re loading our basket now, and plan to return the inventory when prices go back up to MSRP!\nNothing has changed materially in the Chinese economy to warrant the magnitude of these corrections.  This is largely a structural deleveraging coupled with some short-term seasonal weakness and Government “anti-trust” winds/fines that are known and likely priced in.  The short-term inflation noise is expected (and currently lower than estimates in China):\nData Source: Investing.com\nWhat about the General Market?\nSince the Nasdaq is taking the brunt of the pain, I’m going to post a number of Nasdaq indicators I look at to get a feel for when we should be adding stocks and when we should be lightening up.\nSUMMARY: We’re adding because most of these indicators are nearing points that it paid to be a buyer versus a seller.  We ALWAYS scale in and out of positions.  Very rarely are we an ALL or NOTHING player, but I can say we have been a more aggressive buyer than normal in the last 48 hours (in the groups I mentioned above):\nNow onto the shorter term view for the General Market:\nIn this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent (Video Explanation) dropped to 36.5% from 44.3% last week. Bearish Percent rose to 27% from 23.1% last week. Fear is returning for retail investors.\nThe CNN “Fear and Greed” Index fell from 51 last week to 37 this week.  Fear is here.  You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation\nAnd finally, this week the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) dropped to 87.79% this week from 103.72% equity exposure last week.\nOur message for this week:\nDon’t get distracted by the general indices.  They will do what they will do.  Given the consensus has been looking for a 10-20% correction for the past few weeks (“Sell in May and Go Away” was their “edge”), odds are we don’t get anything close to that in the S&P 500.\nMore likely, there will be just enough turmoil for market makers to sell a ton of expensive insurance premium (that expires worthless) to the weak handed “late money” – who missed last year’s rally and chased at the wrong time this year.\nFear is not yet at an extreme, so we could see a bit more pain in the general indices before we find solid footing.  That said, waiting too long to scale into individual bargains can be costly.  As the old saying goes, “if you wait to hear the Robins sing, it’s already Spring” (and you missed it).\nChina Stocks and SPAC warrants were our primary focus in the last 48 hours as we used the fear to load up our shopping cart on hugely discounted merchandise.  We expect to do a bit more shopping this week, but are pleased with the opportunities we’ve been able to take advantage of so far.\nAs for Bill Hwang, I wouldn’t bet against him.  It may take longer than 3 days forhisresurrection, but rise again he shall (albeit with a lot less leverageand capital)…","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":198855858,"gmtCreate":1620952360574,"gmtModify":1704350972181,"author":{"id":"3559787818034959","authorId":"3559787818034959","authorIdStr":"3559787818034959","name":"Ericlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2154f4bb8afd22f8e6fde60b57acb69","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559787818034959"},"htmlText":"Going to take some risk at Chinese stock","listText":"Going to take some risk at Chinese stock","text":"Going to take some risk at Chinese 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