To The Moon

The Tesla share price has had quite a year, more than doubling in 2023 so far. But can it return to the all-time high? Gordon Best takes a look.

Image source: Tesla

There have been plenty of darlings of the stock market in recent years, but many would put Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) at the top of the list. The company has innovated and revolutionised the world of electric vehicles, AI, and energy technology, sending the Tesla share price up over 17,000% since its IPO in 2010. But is there still more growth ahead, or is the excitement coming to an end?

Never a dull moment

Anyone who has owned Tesla shares knows this can be a volatile stock. Multiple factors, including CEO Elon Musk’s unpredictability, can influence the share price, so the performance of the company is only one variable to consider as an investor.

However, with the company being a market leader, it has tremendous potential in EVs, alongside exploiting growing demand for battery technology and renewable energy solutions.

Is it fairly valued?

For many investors, the key issue surrounding Tesla shares is the valuation. Hype is one factor that has sent the Tesla share price far higher than fair value. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 64.4 times is far above the sector average of 49.5 times, and a discounted cash flow calculation puts fair value at $190.12, suggesting the current price is 15% too high.

However, we’ve seen far higher values for these metrics in the past, and with many exciting products on the horizon, and forecast annual earnings growth of 22%, it wouldn’t be a shock for the Tesla share price to continue upwards regardless.

What could send it above $300?

So what could push the price to $300? I’ve got four catalysts in mind:

First, in the coming weeks, Tesla is expected to begin deliveries of its long-awaited Cybertruck. Described as an entirely new type of vehicle, with a unique design, this could spark a huge amount of excitement.

AI could be key too. Tesla has also captured a tremendous quantity of data from its self-driving rollout in the US. At the latest earnings report, the company said over 150m miles had been driven using the technology. This has greatly refined the sophistication of it’s ‘Dojo’ supercomputer.

With this system having potential to inform various products, such as autonomous taxis and robotics systems in the future, the company could become a major player in software.

Economic improvement is a factor as well. Some analysts think central banks are reaching the end of interest rate hiking cycles. Questions remain about a recession, but investors may soon see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Finally, new products could have an impact. A key driver to a sustainable future has long been identified as an EV priced below the average cost. If this could be progressed at Tesla, investors will likely get excited by the enormous market potential.

What are the risks?

As noted, the story is rarely simple with the Tesla share price. Fears of a recession, Elon Musk’s other business ventures, and the ever-present valuation question could easily weigh on the share price.

What’s next?

I always look to the numbers when it comes to a complex company like Tesla. With vehicle production growing steadily, and constant innovation, I see a bright future for it. I suspect we’ll see the Tesla share price above $300 again in 2024, but with no shortage of drama along the way.