To The Moon

China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) released a research report stating that Tesla's (TSLA.US) Gen3 is gradually entering a new product launch phase, while domestic manufacturers are accelerating new product releases and capital operations. The firm advises focusing on high-quality segments at the current bottom, seizing certainty and core changes. The bank anticipates double-digit growth in both domestic and export sales of excavators for December, firmly optimistic about the industry's continued synergistic upward trend. Regarding the semiconductor equipment industry, a major memory cycle is commencing, and equipment companies' orders are expected to maintain high growth rates. For solid-state battery equipment, mid-term acceptance of solid-state batteries is proceeding as scheduled, technical solutions are further converging, and OEM tendering is imminent; the firm is optimistic about the lithium battery equipment sector's performance spanning the year-end. CSC's main views are as follows: The domestic humanoid robot supply chain continues to see catalysts; it is recommended to focus on high-quality segments at the bottom. Xwing Yuan released the world's first small-sized humanoid robot Q1 with full-body force control, and Doosan Robotics initiated its A-share listing plan. The domestic robot industry continues to show positive changes from policy, product, and capital perspectives, consistently catalyzing sector sentiment. On the overseas front, Tesla Gen3's supplier selection and final design remain the core focus at this juncture, with the market paying closer attention to substantive progress such as product performance and confirmed orders. The sector is gradually entering a verification period to separate the wheat from the chaff. Following a substantial earlier correction, subsequent catalysts such as Gen3 supplier selections, new product launches, and IPO progress for domestic robot manufacturers warrant close attention. At the bottom, it is advised to focus on premium segments and grasp core changes like determinism and dexterous hands. Construction machinery is expected to achieve double-digit growth in both domestic and export excavator sales in December. Domestic excavator sales in November increased 9% year-on-year; export sales rose 18% year-on-year, with domestic performance exceeding prior expectations and exports maintaining robust growth. Non-excavator machinery has performed exceptionally well since Q3. In November, domestic sales of truck cranes and crawler cranes increased 26% and 102% year-on-year respectively, while exports grew 8% and 53% year-on-year, with crawler cranes showing particularly strong performance. At this point, the logic of synergistic growth in domestic and export sales for construction machinery has been continuously validated. The firm believes that when tracking monthly data, greater emphasis should be placed on overseas markets, as overseas business now accounts for over 70% of profits for most companies. The export recovery since the second half of this year represents high growth on a high base. Furthermore, the domestic market should not be assessed solely on excavators, as non-excavator domestic sales are currently achieving high growth; excavator conditions do not represent the full picture of domestic sales. The operating conditions of companies in the sector from Q4 to the present remain favorable, and the firm maintains a firm positive outlook on the sector. This week, ChangXin Memory Technologies' IPO application was accepted, signaling the start of a major memory cycle. Equipment companies' orders are expected to maintain high growth rates. Regarding downstream capacity expansion, fab capital expenditure is projected to continue rising into 2026, with memory showing the strongest certainty, advanced logic expected to maintain strong performance, and mature logic facing slight pressure. In terms of localization rates, downstream players are generally accelerating the verification and adoption of domestic equipment. The localization process for components, especially module components, is expected to accelerate, indicating a positive fundamental outlook for the sector overall. Xinjie Energy has crossed the GWh mass production threshold, bringing the solid-state lithium metal route to a market test. Xinjie Energy recently announced the completion of its first 2GWh solid-state lithium metal battery mass production line in Hangzhou, marking the successful validation of the semi-solid oxide combined lithium metal anode route at the mass production level and its imminent commercial deployment. Xinjie has thus become one of the few semi-solid/solid-state battery companies to first cross the GWh mass production threshold. The operation of Xinjie Energy's GWh-scale production line is a significant step for solid-state batteries facing market tests, proving not only the feasibility of the technical route but also reflecting strong downstream demand, which is expected to spur increased investment across the industrial chain. Mid-term acceptance for solid-state batteries is proceeding on schedule, technical solutions are further converging, OEM tendering is imminent, and the firm is optimistic about the lithium battery equipment sector's performance spanning the year-end. AI PCBs are expected to continuously drive demand for updates and upgrades in PCB equipment. The PCB industry is characterized by a return to an upward cycle, product premiumization, and factory establishment in Southeast Asia. Increases in production volume and process changes are expected to persistently drive demand for updates and upgrades in PCB equipment. Within PCB equipment, the value shares of drilling, laser drilling, inner layer imaging, outer layer imaging, plating, and inspection equipment are approximately 15%, 5%, 6%, 19%, 19%, and 5% respectively. These are segments with both high value and high barriers, directly determining the interconnect density, signal integrity, and production yield of circuit boards. AI is driving the industry towards higher layer counts, finer wiring, and greater reliability, demanding higher processing standards and inducing significant changes across all segments. It is recommended to focus on companies like Dingtai Tech in the drilling segment and Guangdong Dongwei Technology in the plating segment. Forklift truck & mobile robot domestic and export sales for large forklifts maintained growth in November; the firm is optimistic about volume expansion in smart logistics-related businesses. Large forklift domestic sales increased 5% year-on-year in July, with exports up 8%; August saw 11% domestic growth and 17% export growth; September recorded 16% domestic and 23% export growth; October showed 8% domestic and 13% export growth; November saw 4% domestic and 11% export growth. The firm is positive about the synergistic upward trend in both domestic and export demand for forklifts. Leading companies are actively deploying smart logistics and unmanned forklifts, having launched embodied intelligence-related products in the logistics sector in Q4 this year. "Unmanned" solutions are expected to see rapid volume expansion. Key recommendations in the machinery sector include: Hengli Hydraulic, Orbbec, Liugong Group, XCMG, Jereh Group, Naipu Mining Machine, Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, CTI Group, Sincere Control, Lead Intelligent Equipment, Bozhon Precision Industry, Haitian International, Yizumi, Rigol Technologies, ZJ International, and Maxwell Technologies. Risk analysis: Risks associated with fluctuations in the domestic macroeconomy, risks from overseas market volatility, and risks of downstream capacity expansion falling short of expectations.