To The Moon

Recently, Qin Shuo, founder of the Qin Shuo Circle of Friends, became embroiled in a war of words with Li Liang, Vice President of Douyin Group, over the argument of whether "ByteDance Time" exists in China's internet. Qin Shuo posted on his social media that, according to Nomura Securities citing QuestMobile data, among the Top 50 apps by usage time in China's mobile internet in August 2026, ByteDance-affiliated apps accounted for 41.8%, while Tencent-affiliated apps accounted for 28.6%, a gap of about 13.2 percentage points.

Qin Shuo stated that China's mobile internet usage time is composed of many apps, including ByteDance Time, Tencent Time, Taotian Time, Pinduoduo Time, Xiaohongshu Time, Meituan Time, and so on. ByteDance-affiliated apps have already captured more than 40% of total usage time among Chinese internet users, and both the share and the growth trend are very significant. "ByteDance Time of China's internet" is a summary of this phenomenon.

In response to Qin Shuo's views, Li Liang posted again on Weibo today, saying that there are several basic common-sense errors in Qin Shuo's analysis. Li Liang pointed out that Qin Shuo mentioned Article 24 of the Anti-Monopoly Law, saying that a market dominance position can be presumed when one operator's share reaches one-half, but the data he himself cited showed that ByteDance-affiliated apps accounted for 41.8%, which does not even reach one-half. Apart from Tencent Holdings (00700)'s instant messaging, which has always maintained market dominance due to the moat of its relationship chain, all other products are like banners changing atop the city wall.

Li Liang said, "I suspect the Japanese Nomura data was provided to Mr. Qin Shuo by someone else, and the gentleman did not even read it carefully. What Nomura calculated was the time allocation within the Top 50 apps. The calculation method is: the sum of monthly total usage time of apps included in the Top 50 by a certain group divided by the monthly total usage time of all Top 50 apps. It did not calculate long-tail apps, nor did it calculate PC internet time. Many people need to stay online at work, and some WeChat and office software must remain open for long periods."

Li Liang stated that, in other words, this is not China's internet time at all, but the time of the Top 50 mobile apps in China's internet. In addition, the Nomura Securities report itself noted that it was a "tracking estimate." Yet Mr. Qin Shuo directly derived "China's internet ByteDance Time," a conclusion with a judgmental nature. Is it excessive to say that Mr. Qin Shuo is not rigorous and is talking nonsense? Precisely because of this, I think this does not match the gentleman's previous style as a genuine scholar.

Li Liang also said, "Nomura's statistical method is also worth discussing. If apps controlled through equity investment are included, the total usage time should belong to the Tencent camp. Then, according to Mr. Qin Shuo's logic, China's internet should be Tencent Time, and it has already lasted for 20 years and will continue to last. Mr. Qin Shuo, don't you find that absurd?"

At the end of the post, Li Liang said, "I don't remember which famous person said it: we know why you are talking nonsense, you also know why you are talking nonsense, you know that we know why you are talking nonsense, we know that you know that we know why you are talking nonsense, but you are just talking nonsense."