全球等待，聆听巴菲特和芒格！

华尔街见闻2022-04-29

当地时间4月29日至5月1日（北京时间4月30日至5月2日），伯克希尔哈撒韦公司将在其创始人沃伦·巴菲特的家乡——内布拉斯加州奥马哈市举办年度股东大会，为自2019年疫情爆发以来首次回归线下举办。这次的股东大会也被称为是“投资界的春晚”，受到全球投资界的瞩目，不仅有视频秀、伯克希尔子公司产品的展销，而且还为投资者提供了难得的机会，可以听到传奇投资人——现年92岁的巴菲特和98岁的查理·芒格的讲话，...

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Comment（26）

Liaw_0430
·2022-05-02
閱
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1
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Jason ooi
·2022-05-02
[愛你]
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1
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Eclim
·2022-05-01
[微笑]
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1
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淋淼淼
·2022-05-01
Ok
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1
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JackJiang
·2022-05-01
ok👍
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1
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Raychan
·2022-05-01
好
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1
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Yoongc
·2022-04-30
ok
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1
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Sunc
·2022-04-30
ok
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2
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北纬1度线
·2022-04-30
👌🏻👌🏻👌🏻
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1
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老八公
·2022-04-30
好
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2
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小熊家族
·2022-04-30
老爺子要開金口了
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2
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zh2021
·2022-04-30
[微笑]
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2
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淋淼淼
·2022-04-30
Ok
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hhyw
·2022-04-30
好
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林明河
·2022-04-30
好的
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1
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林明河
·2022-04-30
好的
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Youn7276
·2022-04-30
Ok
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1
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Jet2017
·2022-04-30
會買阿里的芒格，有什麼好聽的？
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5
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- 红金鱼辣椒:
  🤟🙉
  2022-04-30
  Reply
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舒虎
·2022-04-30
good
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小可爱0958
·2022-04-30
名言👍👍👍
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举办。与往年线下股东大会的会议安排一样，此次大会也包括了整整三天的活动日程：周末派对、投资顾问赞助的周边会议、伯克希尔旗下布鲁克斯体育公司赞助的5公里健步跑以及其他购物活动。4月29日周五的具体安排为：领取参会证，股东购物以及股东专享购物夜。30日周六的具体安排为：股东大会现场开门，播放年会惯例影片，股东大会问答环节，公司正式商务会议以及NFM伯克希尔野餐会。5月1日周日的具体安排为：“投资自己”五公里赛跑以及股东专享购物日。今年这场股东大会，最受瞩目的无疑是问答环节。现场股东将被随机抽选，CNBC的记者将整理无法出席会议的股东提问，并摘选出那些她认为人们最感兴趣的问题。巴菲特将给予股东们充分的自由度。巴菲特在邀请函中表示，任何被抽到的现场股东，只需走到现场11个麦克风前的任何一个，就可以进行提问。2、晚年遭到“弹劾” 退休计划会成真吗？就在上周，全美最大的州立公共养老基金加州公务员退休基金 CalPERS 披露，打算投票支持伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的一项股东提议——解除巴菲特的董事长职位。该基金持有超过4500亿美元的总资产，包括约23亿美元的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票。该公司股东之一的美国国家法律和政策中心，呼吁设立独立的董事长，称董事长和首席执行官由同一名官员担任，削弱了公司的治理结构。根据该提案，巴菲特可继续担任CEO。但伯克希尔董事会反对解除巴菲特董事长职位这一提议，该董事会上个月表示，“只要巴菲特担任伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的CEO，他就应该继续担任董事长兼CEO”。该提议看起来面临一场艰难的斗争。除了董事会的否决以外，巴菲特本人就持有该公司32%的投票权益。然而半个月前，在接受前CBS知名主持人查理·罗斯专访时，巴菲特也承认，年龄已经开始对他造成了一些影响，偶尔会“忘了名字，无法像以前那样快速阅读”。他称自己是一台“正在腐烂的机器”，但仍然“感觉很棒”。因此，有华尔街分析人士猜测，在今年的股东大会上，巴菲特或许会给出退休时间表，并最终确认伯克希尔未来的接班人。3、两位“潜在接班人”首次亮相股东大会不仅是巴菲特和芒格将再度搭档亮相，被业内看做巴菲特“潜在接班人”的 Greg Abel 和 Ajit Jain 也将一道出席。2018年1月，巴菲特提拔了这两名高管担任伯克希尔董事会成员。去年5月3日，巴菲特在接受CNBC采访时承认：“董事们一致同意，如果我卸任，将由伯克希尔非保险业务的副董事长Greg Abel接任CEO。”现年59岁的Abel从1992年开始在一家名为CalEnergy的小型电力公司工作，1998年成为该公司的总裁，并将公司更名为中美能源控股公司。这家公司在2000年被伯克希尔哈撒韦公司收购，现在为伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司（BHE）。Abel从2008年到2018年担任该公司的CEO，现在为董事长。据《福布斯》报道，Abel持有伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司1%的股份，价值约4.8亿美元，占他净资产的大部分。他还拥有一个信托基金，在该基金中他拥有5股伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的A类股，他还为家庭成员保管了2363股的B类股。他的A类股票价值约280万美元，B类股票价值超过40万美元。见闻君曾提及，与巴菲特和芒格不同，生性低调的Abel不喜欢站在聚光灯下。尽管如此，并购交易方面的出色表现仍让外界对他印象深刻。他的朋友曾这么形容：“他的生活就是工作，他把自己的才能隐藏在谦逊的态度背后”。Abel自己也并不年轻了。因此，巴菲特想让他担任伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的CEO也许是有道理的。另一位接班人是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司保险业务的副董事长Ajit Jain。巴菲特此前坦言，伯克希尔董事会已经对谁应该立刻接班CEO达成了共识：如果我今晚发生什么事，Greg将在第二天早上接替CEO。如果Greg发生什么，另一位副董事长Ajit将接替。4、巴菲特近期频频出手 会如何解释投资逻辑？今年以来，全球市场值多事之秋。自俄乌冲突爆发以来，擅长利用市场动荡挖掘机会的巴菲特，持续买入西方石油公司的股票，持股累计达到1.364亿股，占西方石油在外流通股票的14.6%，价值超过72亿美元。不久之后，巴菲特再度出手，将以116亿美元收购保险公司Alleghany，这是巴菲特六年来最大的一笔收购。在狂买石油股、收购保险公司后，巴菲特再次买入1.21亿股惠普股票。这笔投资使伯克希尔获得了惠普约11.4%的股份，成为这家个人电脑和打印机制造商的最大股东。据Business Insider报道，投资公司Edward Jones的高级股票分析师James Shanahan预计，明年还会实现另外两笔交易。伯克希尔哈撒韦可能会斥资约40亿美元，在2023年初将其对全美最大卡车休息站运营商 Pilot Flying J 的股权提高到80%。此外，该公司可能很快就会收购 Walter Scott Jr. 家族持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司8%的股份。Shanahan说，这将使其持股比例超过99%。这使得伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在18个月内的投资可能超过330亿美元，超过其在2020年投入股市的300亿美元。截至2021年底，伯克希尔哈撒韦账面上的现金达到1440亿美元。但无论如何，伯克希尔可能仍难以减少其现金储备。Shanahan指出，该公司每五个季度产生约330亿美元的自由现金流：除非有其他的投资，否则到2023年中期，伯克希尔很有可能仍持有1500亿美元的现金。本周，Shanahan将该股评级下调至“持有”，并声称其当前股价已经反映出，该股今年的表现可能优于其金融服务业同行。在即将召开的股东大会上，巴菲特或许会对近期的投资动作给予更详细的回应，并透露其对未来的投资展望与计划。巴菲特最近称这次会议是“非常、非常重要的会议”。5、“奥马哈先知”绝非浪得虚名巴菲特对股票和市场的多次准确预测为他赢得了“奥马哈先知”（Oracle of Omaha）的绰号。2011年，美国银行遭受了次贷危机的余震，股价从前一年的每股19美元跌至每股7美元，巴菲特嗅到了机会的味道，购买了50亿美元的美国银行优先股。这些优先股附有认股权证，巴菲特可以以每股7.14美元的价格购买7亿股美国银行股票。当巴菲特在2017年行权时，他赚了120亿美元。1974年末，当道琼斯指数跌破600点时，巴菲特对《福布斯》表示，他认为“现在就是开始投资的时候了”。到那次采访发表时，道琼斯指数已经上涨了近15%，达到660点。这一预言尤其突显了巴菲特的投资哲学：在别人贪婪时恐惧，在别人恐惧时贪婪。每当巴菲特发言时，全世界都在屏息聆听。这一次，也让我们共同将目光聚焦在这一传奇人物的身上。6、温习下巴菲特和芒格的经典语录这场被誉为“投资界的春晚”的股东大会，最受瞩目的是现年92岁的巴菲特和98岁的芒格将再度搭档，与全球投资者分享他们的投资智慧。在此之前，让我们一起回忆一下芒格、巴菲特的睿智投资观点。   1）芒格的20条经典语录投资智慧1、人们算计得太多，而思考得太少。2、值得注意的是，像我们这样的人通过努力不变得愚蠢，而不是努力变得非常聪明，获得了多少长期优势！3、一般来说，嫉妒、怨恨和自怜都是灾难性的思维方式。过度自怜让人近乎偏执，而偏执是最难逆转的事情之一，我们不要陷入自怜的情绪中。4、什么是基本的、普世的智慧？第一条规则是，如果你只是记住孤立的事实，把他们硬凑起来，你就不可能真正理解任何事情。如果这些事实没有被整理进记忆网格中，它们就以不可使用的形式存在。你必须在你的大脑中建立模型。财富创造1、赚大钱，不在于买卖，而重在等待。2、成功的秘诀是什么？“理性”。3、要想得到你想要的东西，最好的办法是让自己配得上它。4、如果我知道我会死在哪里，我将永远不会去那个地方。学习的重要性1、没有万能公式，你需要了解很多关于商业、人性以及数字的知识，别指望有一个神奇的系统可以为你完成这些工作。2、如果你轻车熟路地走上跨学科的道路，你将永远不想往回走，因为那就像砍断你的双手一样。3、在我的一生中，认识的所有聪明人，没有一个不每天阅读的——没有，一个都没有。而沃伦读书之多，可能会让你感到吃惊，他是一本长了两条腿的书。4、试着每天起床前比昨天睡觉前聪明一点，一天又一天，如果你足够长寿，到头来你会得到你应得的东西。能力圈理论1、知道自己不知道的比聪明更有用。2、如果事情太难了，我们就跳过去换一个，还有什么比做到这一点更简单吗？3、你不需要很聪明，只需要在很长很长的时间内保持比其他人聪明一点点就够了。4、有三个篮筐，分别是：进入、退出和太难，我们必须有足够的洞察力，否则我们就错误投进“太难”的篮子里。生活准则1、“模仿牛群”会使人回归平庸。2、生活就像一场扑克游戏，即使有时候你会拿到一把非常喜欢的牌，但也要必须学会放弃。3、要学会把事情颠倒过来考虑，从后面来看，逆向思维会帮助你发现很多问题。4、人生就是一连串的 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