Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move

84
18
Favorite

Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move

MarketWatch2021-05-28

Here’s how to trade the stock market. The S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment（18）

AmandaKoh
·2021-05-28
Help me out with a like and comment to this comment thank u!
Reply
Like
Report
JetC
·2021-05-28
[財迷]
Reply
Like
Report
ev008
·2021-05-28
like and comment. Thank you!
Reply
3
Report
Fold Replies
- Joker_Smile:
  done. 1 like?
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
- AmandaKoh:
  DoNe!
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
yhl77
·2021-05-28
Be safe
Reply
3
Report
SeanSak
·2021-05-28
Go go go go for it
Reply
4
Report
Fold Replies
- sfleong1:
  more , win more more
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
Eric_Ooi
·2021-05-28
True isn't it
Reply
Like
Report
Veldora
·2021-05-28
Obviously it either went up or down. Opinionthat is irrelevant.
Reply
2
Report
Lweichiang
·2021-05-28
Good info
Reply
Like
Report
Crispian
·2021-05-28
[呆住] [呆住]
Reply
2
Report
JoshyQ
·2021-05-28
Comment and like ty
Reply
4
Report
Fold Replies
- jerminos:
  Done! Hope you can comment too
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
- Jess9s:
  done
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
- jerminos:
  Thank you!
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
KailashN
·2021-05-28
Good info, please like and comment!
Reply
5
Report
Fold Replies
- Kenang:
  Ok
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
- KailashN:
  Thanks
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
XIN90
·2021-05-28
Like and comment pls! Good luck everyone
Reply
4
Report
Fold Replies
- Kenang:
  Do e
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
Jimmyboy
·2021-05-28
Good information. Pls like and comment.
Reply
1
Report
Fold Replies
- Joker_Smile:
  done . can like and response?
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
MayTan
·2021-05-28
Noted
Reply
1
Report
Ak91
·2021-05-28
Like and comment pls
Reply
1
Report
Fold Replies
- Ahbaoo:
  done, comment back ty!
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
- JimmyboyReplying toAk91:
  Good information. Pls like and comment.
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
- Ak91:
  Sure
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
rawr
·2021-05-28
Like and comment pls
Reply
2
Report
Fold Replies
- Joker_Smile:
  ok. done
  2021-05-28
  Reply
  Report
HiDaya
·2021-05-28
....
Reply
1
Report
lickharpy
·2021-05-28
Really?
Reply
1
Report

Most Discussed

7x24

All

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181071519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1181071519","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","media":"MarketWatch","content":"<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1603348471595","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPY","symbol_name":"标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","article_id":"1181071519","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"观点：随着标普500接近历史高点，应对暴力行动","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":135428260,"gmtCreate":1622177796550,"gmtModify":1704180962583,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Help me out with a like and comment to this comment thank u!","listText":"Help me out with a like and comment to this comment thank u!","text":"Help me out with a like and comment to this comment thank u!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135428260","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135423794,"gmtCreate":1622177625818,"gmtModify":1704180959968,"author":{"id":"3580802619343975","authorId":"3580802619343975","name":"JetC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bee018188e684548384d91cffc9e2e0b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135423794","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":135462040,"gmtCreate":1622177150580,"gmtModify":1704180950121,"author":{"id":"3578780651832782","authorId":"3578780651832782","name":"ev008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c066fbdbab166ed8844739c5519979","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"like and comment. Thank you!&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment. Thank you!&nbsp;","text":"like and comment. Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135462040","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4480881,"gmtCreate":1622177556604,"gmtModify":1680791520445,"authorId":3574572092080891,"author":{"id":3574572092080891,"authorId":3574572092080891,"name":"Joker_Smile","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5bf41aabce75edc01766ad80e2bf49","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135462040,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done. 1 like?","text":"done. 1 like?","html":"done. 1 like?"},{"id":4480933,"gmtCreate":1622177747640,"gmtModify":1680791517202,"authorId":3580362982512250,"author":{"id":3580362982512250,"authorId":3580362982512250,"name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135462040,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"DoNe!","text":"DoNe!","html":"DoNe!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135468260,"gmtCreate":1622177059350,"gmtModify":1704180948149,"author":{"id":"3578210330936790","authorId":"3578210330936790","name":"yhl77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f5d104b4f554fe3544bdd3abd635ae","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Be safe","listText":"Be safe","text":"Be safe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135468260","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135417428,"gmtCreate":1622176093664,"gmtModify":1704180927412,"author":{"id":"3581585664475701","authorId":"3581585664475701","name":"SeanSak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a62d3d455150e01d4dc6c67bd4f9c0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Go go go go for&nbsp;it","listText":"Go go go go for&nbsp;it","text":"Go go go go for it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135417428","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4480786,"gmtCreate":1622177000964,"gmtModify":1680791518441,"authorId":3583570345500843,"author":{"id":3583570345500843,"authorId":3583570345500843,"name":"sfleong1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec42f3f2b911279950a45a9140bc358","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135417428,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"more , win more more","text":"more , win more more","html":"more , win more more"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135414042,"gmtCreate":1622176006486,"gmtModify":1704180925111,"author":{"id":"3579878297464098","authorId":"3579878297464098","name":"Eric_Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bac8a0e30a6e13b664c4f5939e0dff9","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"True isn't it","listText":"True isn't it","text":"True isn't it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135414042","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135411713,"gmtCreate":1622175719732,"gmtModify":1704180919224,"author":{"id":"3580473686930895","authorId":"3580473686930895","name":"Veldora","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c60768e017f3418615cd7dea3a291ec","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Obviously it either went up or down. Opinionthat is irrelevant.","listText":"Obviously it either went up or down. Opinionthat is irrelevant.","text":"Obviously it either went up or down. Opinionthat is irrelevant.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135411713","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135413911,"gmtCreate":1622175591833,"gmtModify":1704180916951,"author":{"id":"3554707933261545","authorId":"3554707933261545","name":"Lweichiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0e13b79cbf3639b67844d0139526fb","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good info","listText":"Good info","text":"Good info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135413911","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135495171,"gmtCreate":1622174428893,"gmtModify":1704180896894,"author":{"id":"3575263385173208","authorId":"3575263385173208","name":"Crispian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住] [呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135495171","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":135493513,"gmtCreate":1622174050332,"gmtModify":1704180889156,"author":{"id":"3574925827192931","authorId":"3574925827192931","name":"JoshyQ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Comment and like ty","listText":"Comment and like ty","text":"Comment and like ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135493513","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4480330,"gmtCreate":1622174269098,"gmtModify":1680791512651,"authorId":3583841475339760,"author":{"id":3583841475339760,"authorId":3583841475339760,"name":"jerminos","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6b79d65a5ecd18fecf889c39f99b14","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135493513,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done! Hope you can comment too","text":"Done! Hope you can comment too","html":"Done! Hope you can comment too"},{"id":4480543,"gmtCreate":1622175676281,"gmtModify":1680791507467,"authorId":3578361661251381,"author":{"id":3578361661251381,"authorId":3578361661251381,"name":"Jess9s","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7489181e0756763588255408d03d74f6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135493513,"type":1,"supId":4480330,"prevId":0,"content":"done","text":"done","html":"done"},{"id":4481699,"gmtCreate":1622182389757,"gmtModify":1663227492531,"authorId":3583841475339760,"author":{"id":3583841475339760,"authorId":3583841475339760,"name":"jerminos","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6b79d65a5ecd18fecf889c39f99b14","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135493513,"type":1,"supId":4480330,"prevId":0,"content":"Thank you!","text":"Thank you!","html":"Thank you!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135574202,"gmtCreate":1622173107406,"gmtModify":1704180868055,"author":{"id":"3582703680193232","authorId":"3582703680193232","name":"KailashN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcea4d0815f5091810e222c8e9e54c35","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good info, please like and comment!","listText":"Good info, please like and comment!","text":"Good info, please like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135574202","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4480228,"gmtCreate":1622173700325,"gmtModify":1680791512158,"authorId":3578783239633074,"author":{"id":3578783239633074,"authorId":3578783239633074,"name":"Kenang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b932623d314153a412ec6160f17873c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135574202,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":4480282,"gmtCreate":1622173987502,"gmtModify":1680791510073,"authorId":3582703680193232,"author":{"id":3582703680193232,"authorId":3582703680193232,"name":"KailashN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcea4d0815f5091810e222c8e9e54c35","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135574202,"type":1,"supId":4480228,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135575901,"gmtCreate":1622173003903,"gmtModify":1704180866245,"author":{"id":"3575421183576572","authorId":"3575421183576572","name":"XIN90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03ad25cd0afaee9bf2e99b32ad14452","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls! Good luck everyone","listText":"Like and comment pls! Good luck everyone","text":"Like and comment pls! Good luck everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135575901","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4480231,"gmtCreate":1622173705788,"gmtModify":1680791511344,"authorId":3578783239633074,"author":{"id":3578783239633074,"authorId":3578783239633074,"name":"Kenang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b932623d314153a412ec6160f17873c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135575901,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Do e","text":"Do e","html":"Do e"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135571841,"gmtCreate":1622172838983,"gmtModify":1704180860152,"author":{"id":"3582072891665879","authorId":"3582072891665879","name":"Jimmyboy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d5d497bceb3edaca216e9eeab3c22","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good information. Pls like and comment.","listText":"Good information. Pls like and comment.","text":"Good information. Pls like and comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135571841","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4480072,"gmtCreate":1622172864240,"gmtModify":1680791496822,"authorId":3574572092080891,"author":{"id":3574572092080891,"authorId":3574572092080891,"name":"Joker_Smile","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5bf41aabce75edc01766ad80e2bf49","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135571841,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done . can like and response?","text":"done . can like and response?","html":"done . can like and response?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135573731,"gmtCreate":1622172828323,"gmtModify":1704180859821,"author":{"id":"3573019619191060","authorId":"3573019619191060","name":"MayTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/808e2dbe5d70103ebf181c1496a31644","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135573731","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135547456,"gmtCreate":1622172692875,"gmtModify":1704180855730,"author":{"id":"3573276404004652","authorId":"3573276404004652","name":"Ak91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0578c6f4e6345562f2d636b87cc2b9fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135547456","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4480043,"gmtCreate":1622172724921,"gmtModify":1680791497202,"authorId":3581645503569527,"author":{"id":3581645503569527,"authorId":3581645503569527,"name":"Ahbaoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac58c8588dd962f9657a573f33a1507","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135547456,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done, comment back ty!","text":"done, comment back ty!","html":"done, comment back ty!"},{"id":4480069,"gmtCreate":1622172853398,"gmtModify":1680791496172,"authorId":3582072891665879,"author":{"id":3582072891665879,"authorId":3582072891665879,"name":"Jimmyboy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d5d497bceb3edaca216e9eeab3c22","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3573276404004652,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3573276404004652,"authorId":3573276404004652,"name":"Ak91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0578c6f4e6345562f2d636b87cc2b9fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":135547456,"type":1,"supId":4480043,"prevId":4480048,"content":"Good information. Pls like and comment.","text":"Good information. Pls like and comment.","html":"Good information. Pls like and comment."},{"id":4480048,"gmtCreate":1622172735022,"gmtModify":1680791495811,"authorId":3573276404004652,"author":{"id":3573276404004652,"authorId":3573276404004652,"name":"Ak91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0578c6f4e6345562f2d636b87cc2b9fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135547456,"type":1,"supId":4480043,"prevId":0,"content":"Sure","text":"Sure","html":"Sure"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135544900,"gmtCreate":1622172596900,"gmtModify":1704180853763,"author":{"id":"3573824218341786","authorId":"3573824218341786","name":"rawr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0f47a4638adab510d5b8d13352c3095","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135544900","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4480033,"gmtCreate":1622172687521,"gmtModify":1680791495949,"authorId":3574572092080891,"author":{"id":3574572092080891,"authorId":3574572092080891,"name":"Joker_Smile","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5bf41aabce75edc01766ad80e2bf49","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":135544900,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok. done","text":"ok. done","html":"ok. done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135545747,"gmtCreate":1622172585289,"gmtModify":1704180853437,"author":{"id":"3584409189861115","authorId":"3584409189861115","name":"HiDaya","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb87d9a1b7333340c5c703cd08909596","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"....","listText":"....","text":"....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135545747","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":135546042,"gmtCreate":1622172407286,"gmtModify":1704180849359,"author":{"id":"3578478776793075","authorId":"3578478776793075","name":"lickharpy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b711444c273c8a00c0a7da01dbfbb3fc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Really?&nbsp;","listText":"Really?&nbsp;","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135546042","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n</blockquote>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHere’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":84,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}