Thoughts On Bitcoin And Reflation Trades

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Thoughts On Bitcoin And Reflation Trades

seekingalpha2021-02-09

Summary Bitcoin is not backed by anything and has no intrinsic value. It is not a means to pay taxes and bank debt which is what creates inherent demand for so-called fiat currencies. Recessions and ...

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onezero
·2021-02-15
Ok
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- TCMML:
  $.$ BTC
  2021-02-16
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DanTEOHH
·2021-02-13
Hey
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DanTEOHH
·2021-02-10
[財迷]
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KW1
·2021-02-10
Like it
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LeonardKSW
·2021-02-10
Ok
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LeonardKSW
·2021-02-10
Ok
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Rchua
·2021-02-10
To the moon
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Vnkhoo
·2021-02-10
Up
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Visionaire91
·2021-02-10
Blvd Baghdad vxbbj
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Visionaire91
·2021-02-10
San
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Blurryw
·2021-02-10
Nice
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- Alvinwong:
  Nice
  2021-02-10
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Jpeh
·2021-02-10
Well said
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Shivani
·2021-02-10
True
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WW1012
·2021-02-09
?
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WHITEROSE
·2021-02-09
To the moon!!
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我发大财了
·2021-02-09
Agreed. Let’s have a major sell-off.
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- Samuel.L:
  Selllllll
  2021-02-10
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Stormytw
·2021-02-09
Dogeeee
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Chermaine
·2021-02-09
Interesting
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SivaSG
·2021-02-09
Bitcoin
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There is no way to stimulate under a BTC standard.\nBTC does not own the blockchain technology, meaning there are no barriers to entry.\nA central bank digital reserve currency (USD replacement) would be more like an SDR or a weighted basket of fiat currencies, not BTC.\n\n\"Fiat\" currency such as the euro, yen, RMB or USD is backed by debt and the tax liability to the government. Therefore, there is in fact intrinsic value in a USD, unlike cryptocurrencies. What I’m saying is quite simple. A USD has value because someone out there needs it to pay taxes and debt. This creates inherent demand. Bitcoin does not have that.\nIt also creates policy problems. A BTC standard is essentially saying no matter how high unemployment rises or how bad a recession gets, there is nothing that can be done about it because supply is fixed. This is a similar problem to that of a gold standard.\nBTC is going to struggle to find wide adoption as a means of exchange when the value of it or demand for it tomorrow is so unknown. Only someone as out there as Musk is willing to give you a car for BTC. The rational person would say no, because there isn't any almost \"promised\" demand backing it.\nSo it’s the blockchain many would say. But bitcoin doesn’t own the technology. IBM or Google or JPM can just make their own blockchain. A central bank digital reserve currency would run on its own blockchain and not be bitcoin. It would be something more akin to an SDR. The real story with BTC though, is the problems with a USD-reserve-based global monetary system because global economic health becomes contingent on USD FX value, which is where we find ourselves today.\n\nRising US Treasury bond yields and a stronger USD have repeatedly short-circuited any global economic recovery. This makes me severely question the whole idea of the global reflation trade and I am concerned more about a deflationary downturn and bust in risk assets emanating from first, a rise in real (inflation-adjusted) UST yields and second, a spillover into emerging markets equities and currencies. Outflows and speculative attacks on emerging market currencies would be very detrimental to their economies, put their central banks in an extremely difficultlose-losepolicy position, and would worsen their USD-denominated corporate debt burden.\nWe are in the midst of the 3rd largest bond sell-off since (including) the 2013 taper tantrum. I've argued for months short treasuries are a one way trade and markets would soon expose the untenable position. The reason is regardless of your inflationary or deflationary view, treasuries are still a short on a rise in inflation compensation premiums (scenario 1) or aswitch to the USDas we saw in March 2020 and largefunding gapbetween US government bond issuance and Federal Reserve purchases (scenario 2). This puts the Federal reserve in a difficult position because more QE would worsen scenario 1. And not increasing treasury purchases would worsen scenario 2. They simply cannot realistically keep yields down despite their intention to. Increased QE would also risk larger asset price bubbles, more manic speculative activity and a worse potential drawdown. More QE may be viewed as a solution, but it also would increase the magnitude of the problem.\nSource: Robin Brooks. IIF.\nSource: John Hussman\nEmployment gains have been rolling over and losing steam, which means there is still significant slack in the economy, making a short-run inflationary outcome unlikely in my opinion. This lack of inflation combined with quickly rising yields pushes up the real-UST-yield adjusted for actual inflation and expectations. When real yields rise, it increases the allure of USD in global FX markets. Any “big” inflation print should be viewed from a m/m perspective, not y/y because we’re coming off a low base from Spring 2020.\n\nThis causes outflows from emerging market economies and collapses carry trades into EM FX which puts pressure on policy makers to either raise rates to defend the currency and risk weakening asset prices and worsening growth. Or an emerging market central bank could let rates fall and watch their currency go into free-fall depreciation with stag-flationary pressures building. Brazil is a good example of this where traders are pilinginto tradesthat the Central Bank of Brazil will raise rates despite a weak economy in order to defend the very poorly performing BRL. By pricing in this rate hike markets are dictating policy, rather than the other way around, which is becoming more and more common.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":382389605,"gmtCreate":1613363237707,"gmtModify":1704880086352,"author":{"id":"3574321920996186","authorId":"3574321920996186","name":"onezero","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78a6fcdcf896cad792f2b119c43dbff5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574321920996186","authorIdStr":"3574321920996186"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382389605","repostId":1183096042,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3581561,"gmtCreate":1613484816111,"gmtModify":1680777086613,"authorId":3573276191701980,"author":{"id":3573276191701980,"idStr":"3573276191701980","authorId":3573276191701980,"name":"TCMML","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c31d40d4a8172460d3ef7af5522a165","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382389605,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"$.$ BTC ","text":"$.$ BTC ","html":"$.$ BTC 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it","listText":"Like it","text":"Like it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381917823","repostId":1183096042,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":381932187,"gmtCreate":1612919900249,"gmtModify":1704876006672,"author":{"id":"3569318025811476","authorId":"3569318025811476","name":"LeonardKSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeba92ccfc8a91444aa3e36de4a39425","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a4c8d97279fa9f8f1fa9749a6bdff4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569318025811476","authorIdStr":"3569318025811476"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381932187","repostId":1183096042,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":381936579,"gmtCreate":1612919868891,"gmtModify":1704876006023,"author":{"id":"3569318025811476","authorId":"3569318025811476","name":"LeonardKSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeba92ccfc8a91444aa3e36de4a39425","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a4c8d97279fa9f8f1fa9749a6bdff4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569318025811476","authorIdStr":"3569318025811476"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381936579","repostId":1183096042,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":381996853,"gmtCreate":1612918970072,"gmtModify":1704875991775,"author":{"id":"3573384717013733","authorId":"3573384717013733","name":"Rchua","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573384717013733","authorIdStr":"3573384717013733"},"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381996853","repostId":1183096042,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":381902569,"gmtCreate":1612918381451,"gmtModify":1704875979557,"author":{"id":"3567835546722162","authorId":"3567835546722162","name":"Vnkhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567835546722162","authorIdStr":"3567835546722162"},"htmlText":"Up&nbsp;","listText":"Up&nbsp;","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381902569","repostId":1183096042,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":381062692,"gmtCreate":1612914520616,"gmtModify":1704875913937,"author":{"id":"3575064919547722","authorId":"3575064919547722","name":"Visionaire91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59415b21e30304def0b99d0d4d41259e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575064919547722","authorIdStr":"3575064919547722"},"htmlText":"Blvd Baghdad vxbbj","listText":"Blvd Baghdad vxbbj","text":"Blvd Baghdad 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