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美债的几个关键位置:到这个数字美股就危险了

雪涛宏观笔记2021-03-18

作者:宋雪涛 2月以来,美债10Y利率从1.0%-1.1%上行到1.5%-1.6%,1个半月(2月-3月中)的上升幅度(~50bp)相当于之前6个月(去年8月-今年1月)的总和。实际利率的上升起了主要作用:2月以来美债10Y实际利率上升了40bp,而(盈亏平衡)通胀预期只上升了13bp,维持在2.2%附近。 图1:实际利率与通胀预期 资料来源:Wind,天风证券研究所 实际...

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