Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has been trading actively. On the evening of January 8, Orient Securities held a large-scale live broadcast event titled "Uniting Hearts and Reins, Awaiting the Bloom" for the 2026 opening, led by Huang Yanming, Director of the Orient Securities Research Institute, with several of the firm's top investment research experts providing real-time insights into China's economy and key investment themes.
Huang Yanming believes that the A-share market will show a trend of "sideways fluctuation with a slight strengthening tendency" in the first half of 2026. He identifies the core opportunity as lying in mid-cap blue-chip stocks, with a key focus on cyclical sectors (such as new energy and robotics) and manufacturing. He also stated that while technology remains the long-term main theme, it requires a short-term consolidation.
Looking ahead to the A-share market in the first half of 2026, Huang Yanming anticipates a pattern of "sideways fluctuation with a slight strengthening tendency." He pointed out that the current market is in an adjustment period following the 2025 bull market and needs to accomplish three major tasks: completing the transition between old and new growth drivers to accumulate fresh momentum, switching market hotspots to find new breakthrough directions, and the re-dispersion of stock holdings to form a foundation for trading.
"The driving force behind the 2025 bull market did not stem from an improvement in the real economy, but rather from a rise in people's expectations. These expectations primarily came from two directions: first, rising expectations regarding national governance, manifested as increased investor confidence in comprehensive national strength; second, heightened expectations for technology leading the economy, reflected in investors' fervent pursuit of tech stocks. Up to now, most of these previous expectations have already been priced into this round of market performance. The next step requires us to return to observing the real economy; we need a recovery in the real economy to form new expectations," Huang Yanming expressed.
Huang Yanming stated that behind the stock market lies the relationship between the economy and expectations, with expectations leading and the economy following. The stock market primarily reflects people's expectations, thus the stock market leads the economy. In 2025, expectations rose rapidly, but economic improvement was relatively slow, exhibiting characteristics of "cold macro data but hot market sentiment." The first half of 2026 should be a period of sideways fluctuation for the stock market, where slight market strengthening allows the economy to catch up with the pace of expectations.
Huang Yanming said, "The economy and expectations are not synchronized, but their directions should ultimately align. Therefore, whether from the perspective of national economic development, the healthy growth of the capital market, or the wealth accumulation desired by investors, the A-share market needs a long, slow, and healthy bull market, not a fast or frenzied one."
Regarding allocation, Huang Yanming proposes focusing on mid-cap blue chips as the core opportunity, with key positions in cyclical sectors (chemicals, non-ferrous metals) and manufacturing (new energy, robotics). "In the long term, technology remains the main theme, but it requires short-term consolidation."
Huang Yanming indicated that from April 2023 to November 2025, the A-share market consistently showed a polarized trend: funds either flowed into low-risk, low-volatility, high-dividend stocks or chased high-risk, high-growth technology stocks, leaving medium-risk characteristic stocks with no opportunity. He used an analogy: it's like people eating in a room when a loud noise occurs outside; the "elderly" with low-risk preferences hide under the table or lie on the floor, while the "young" with high-risk preferences rush outside to investigate. Mapping this to the market, investors at both ends sold off stocks with medium-risk characteristics. He pointed out that this situation is now changing. The "elderly" lying on the floor are starting to get up, and the "young" who rushed outside are gradually returning—this signifies that market risk appetite is shifting back from both extremes towards the middle ground. Consequently, opportunities for stock price performance will emerge from mid-cap blue-chip stocks.
"Mid-cap blue-chip stocks essentially refer to stocks with a middling level of risk in the overall market. Their characteristics include a medium market capitalization, having both solid earnings and potential for thematic stories, and most importantly, their stock prices have shown little significant movement over the past two-plus years. Mid-cap blue chips are found mainly in two directions: first, cyclical sectors, focusing on chemicals and non-ferrous metals; second, manufacturing, focusing on new energy and robotics," Huang Yanming said.
Regarding technology, Huang Yanming expressed that enhancing China's future national strength inevitably depends on technology, and after this bull market, everyone firmly believes that technology will lead China's future. "However, because the technology sector rose too rapidly previously, it recently needs to consolidate. From a long-term perspective, we believe the opportunities in the A-share market still lie in technology."
Currently, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen from over 3000 points to 4000 points, yet some investors have not profited from their stocks. Addressing this, Huang Yanming stated that over the past 30-plus years, stock selection in the A-share market largely relied on earnings expectation-based selection. But from 2023 until now, the mainstream approach to stock selection in the A-share market has shifted to style strategy-based selection. Style strategy selection involves observing the combined changes of three numerator factors—EPS, ROE, and growth—and three denominator factors—the risk-free interest rate, risk assessment, and risk appetite.
Huang Yanming also shared his investment insights gained from over 30 years in the securities industry. He emphasized the importance of adopting an investment mindset of "equalizing right and wrong, self and other, subject and object, bull and bear, rise and fall." This means maintaining an equanimous heart towards both bull and bear markets, facing them calmly, not becoming overjoyed by rises nor saddened by falls. "Praising oneself for being capable when making money and blaming others when losing money are incorrect investment mentalities. Investing involves both profits and losses, but if one treats investing as a practice in life cultivation, then there are only gains, no losses. Wisdom only increases; it does not decrease," Huang Yanming said.
In the macro strategy roundtable session, several other top experts from the Orient Securities Research Institute also shared their views.
"Major power rivalry sets the anchor, stable as a rock is the source of value; amidst the myriad changes across the globe, China stands unwavering." Sun Jinxia, Deputy Director of the Orient Securities Research Institute, stated that the 2025 Sino-US rivalry saw a shift between offense and defense, and 2026 marks the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Policy continuity under Chinese-style long-termism will become the core support for Chinese assets.
Cao Jingnan, Dean of the Political Economy Research Institute at Orient Securities, added that the US wins tactically, while China wins hearts and minds. China's advantages in diplomacy, manufacturing exports, and other areas are prominent, and 2026 will see China become the most tranquil market among global hotspot regions.
Huang Runan, Chief China Macro Analyst at Orient Securities, projected that the Chinese economy in the first half of the year would be weaker earlier and stronger later, with GDP growth in the 4.5%–5.0% range. On the consumption side, he is optimistic about service consumption, while both investment and exports have support, and risk assessment is expected to continue declining.
Wang Zhongyao, Chief Overseas Macro Analyst at Orient Securities, stated that rising risk assessment for the US economy highlights China's relative improvement. Structural divergences within the US economy will force policy easing, leading to declines in both US dollar interest rates and exchange rates in the first half of 2026, with incremental funds likely flowing into non-US assets.
In the industry strategy roundtable, several top investment advisors shared insights on investment opportunities in hot sectors like AI, robotics, non-ferrous metals, new energy, and chemicals.
Regarding the AI sector, Ji Cheng, a top investment advisor at Orient Securities, stated that domestic AI has no bubble, with demand being real and sustained. He believes global cloud providers' capital expenditure will continue to grow, and business models will gradually materialize. For investment, focus on domestic computing power, particularly advanced process nodes and ultra-node technologies, as well as segments experiencing shortages and price increases like optical chips and memory chips. On the AI application side, focus on two main themes: C-end traffic portals and B-end cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
Commenting on the non-ferrous metals sector, which has led A-share gains in recent years, Wang Ziyi, another top investment advisor at Orient Securities, stated that the copper sector faces scarce supply and robust demand, with copper prices expected to continue rising. Expanding supply deficits and dual-driven demand will support copper prices. For lithium carbonate, he holds the view that "supply and demand are tightening, with the price center moving upwards step by step," pointing out sufficient demand resilience and advising against excessive worry about overcapacity.
For the new energy sector, Zheng Yueling, Asset Allocation Analyst at Orient Securities, indicated a focus on four directions for the first half of this year: energy storage, lithium battery materials, nuclear fusion, and solid-state batteries, with core emphasis on energy storage and solid-state batteries. For energy storage, "domestic demand remains strong, overseas profits are surging, and the demand side will see resonance both internally and externally": domestically, diverse profit models are reducing reliance on policies, while overseas, power shortages in North American data centers are driving incremental demand for energy storage配置. For solid-state batteries, she emphasized focusing on two key areas: materials and equipment, noting they will gradually penetrate multiple scenarios, with potential for vehicle installation by 2027.
Regarding robotics, Li Chengze, a top investment advisor at Orient Securities, believes the robotics industry is transitioning from its early to mid-stage. Key components to focus on include joint assemblies and dexterous hands, with important catalysts being the mass production of Tesla's V3 robot and the listing of domestic leaders.
For the chemicals sector, Gao Haitao, a top investment advisor at Orient Securities, believes that as corporate operations shift focus, supply and demand are expected to improve, making a continuation of the chemical sector's positive performance foreseeable. He stated that the chemical industry will transition from "share-oriented" to "operation-oriented," and combined with factors like overseas capacity exits and demand improvement, he is optimistic about high-barrier大宗 chemicals, offshore-substitute fine chemicals, and细分 tracks like spandex, adipic acid, and refrigerants.
