达里奥最新演讲：股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中

人民币交易与研究2021-06-28

全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”，但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。达里奥在推文中写道，“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价，我用六项指标来衡量它”，并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。 ...

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Comment（35）

谋远
·2021-06-30
看來僅僅用債務率衡量泡沫的程度是不夠的，因爲在全球低利率的情況下，債務能維持的時間會更久，這也會爲新增長贏得空間。
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EricBong
·2021-06-29
Okoklah
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Daphnez
·2021-06-29
和泡沫共舞
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VikiSoh
·2021-06-29
[呆住]
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dkpoh
·2021-06-29
666???
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Youn7276
·2021-06-29
閱！
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6
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小佳_
·2021-06-28
**門的嘛
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1
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Richhao
·2021-06-28
[呆住]
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2
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TCT
·2021-06-28
好
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1
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钞票厚厚滴
·2021-06-28
他不說還好，一說，我想是時候止盈了
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WGJJS
·2021-06-28
這還不叫泡沫？是叫泡饃是吧？
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SKEr
·2021-06-28
嗯
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新加坡的大螃蟹
·2021-06-28
[財迷] [財迷] [財迷]
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1
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- Cmin:
  [梭哈]
  2021-07-03
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新加坡的大螃蟹
·2021-06-28
[得意]
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EmilyWon
·2021-06-28
[強]
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4
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- 新加坡的大螃蟹:
  [得意]
  2021-06-28
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- Paulyang:
  赞一个
  2021-06-28
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hhyw
·2021-06-27
泡沫要爆了，各位保重??
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Youn7276
·2021-06-27
要等泡沫爆！
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19
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- LohYK:
  [摊手]
  2021-06-27
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- 阿麦小乔:
  666
  2021-06-27
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- Jamesncm:
  ??
  2021-06-27
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虎爷a
·2021-06-27
一直是泡沫啊
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- hhyw:
  泡沫要爆了
  2021-06-27
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我还是从前内个少年
·2021-06-27
泡沫來的時候，不會有人一直講的，要來就直接來了
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八韭特
·2021-06-26
泡沫比較合理吧
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Stuy）和孩子们一起打篮球，我很幸运能够看到他和罗宾汉基金的所有工作人员，以一种非常个人化和高效的方式来帮助减轻美国的贫困，并且能够成为其中的一员。你们所做的一切都很棒，所以我只想感谢你们所做的一切，并且告诉你们能够来到这里并尽我的微薄之力，我有多么高兴。\n我被要求谈论泡沫，市场、股市是否处于泡沫中，以及什么样的泡沫。我只想给你们一些关于这个问题的想法，我只有大约10分钟的时间。所以我想讲快点，几年前，我开始思考：什么是泡沫？当我们身处泡沫中时，我所说的泡沫是指什么？因为在我50年的投资生涯中，我看到了很多泡沫。\n在我脑海中，有六件事是我基本上认为会导致产生泡沫的，我将他们一一列举出来。现在，看着它们，以便您知道我在说什么。\n首先，您知道，我们的价格相对于传统的价格衡量标准有多高是一个考虑因素。例如，你知道我们的PSI或收益率之类的东西，这是一个考虑因素，但这不是我所说的泡沫。\n比方说，可能出现价格高回报低的现象，而且这种情况可以持续很长时间，但这并不意味着泡沫会破灭，只是其中一个组成因素。\n第二，价格是反映不可持续的条件，这里指的是买方的性质，谁在买入和如何买入，不可持续的条件会产生了价格调整或下跌，然后就出现了第三个投机因素——市场上的新买家被吸引了。\n您知道，这就像鸡尾酒会，有些从不参加的人出现了，也就是投资了某些资产，可能是科技股，也可能是房地产，但无论如何，每个人都想，没有持有这些东西会让他们觉得自己很蠢，诸如此类。\n第五项是大额购买远期“合约”，比如有人买了他们不了解的公寓，因为他们认为公寓会上涨，或者用大规模交易大宗商品的年代来举例。我会观察那些使用大宗商品的人，他们购买了大量远期合约。换句话说，购买库存以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。\n所以当他们离场的时候——正如我们最近在大宗商品市场看到的——当他们抛售远期合约时，价格持续下跌，他们会说“我也不想要它”。\n而当价格上涨时，他们会说我们要进行溢价保护，对冲价格上涨。所以，延长了这些远期购买的买家是一个（泡沫）指标。\n我用这张表显示整个股市，我把这个框架基本上应用到所有资产上，并且使用一种系统化的方法，试图判断哪些处在泡沫中。在我看来，在各种各样的股票中，有些存在泡沫，有些则没有，而整个股市正如这张图表所显示的。\n这张图表可以追溯到1910年，它是一个彰显泡沫程度的指标。你可以看到当前是有泡沫的，但没有2000年和1929年那么高，不过高于2007年。\n\n让我们看看存在泡沫的股票，根据这些标准，很多股票没有泡沫。\n\n这张图表追溯到1995年，与2000年相比，前1000名的企业市值存在泡沫比例约为5%，整个标普500指数存在泡沫的份额约为2%，虽然不如2000年高，但比2007年高。\n现在来看下一张显示了泡沫股票的图表。\n\n我把这些泡沫股票与标准普尔500指数分离，可以看到泡沫股在大盘中的比例下降，我相信这种情况很可能会持续下去，但目前处于泡沫之中。其中一个问题是，泡沫可以扩张和收缩，时机是个大问题。\n下面这张图表可以追溯到1900年，上图显示的是债务与国内生产总值（GDP）之比，下图中蓝线显示的是利率，红线显示印钞规模，也就是流入的货币量。所以你可以看到当债务累加时，就像现在的情况，并且实施近零利率，这两种情况同时存在时就会大肆印钞。\n\n这是泡沫的一个关键因素，因为有大量的流动性进入市场，然后有很多资金哄抬各种各样的资产价格，所以你可以看到，当蓝线触及零时，红线大幅上行。大量流动性，大量的债务融资和债务货币化形成了一个典型的泡沫。\n其他可能产生泡沫的因素则是新股上市，特别是如果它们没有盈利，或者是在许多情况下没有盈利的前景。\n这些也是泡沫的考虑因素，所以我想说，你不能说当前的股市处于最高程度的泡沫，你必须区分哪些股票正处于泡沫中、或者一直处于泡沫中；哪些股票没有，实际上目前有许多股票并没有处于泡沫中。\n所以我希望这能让你对泡沫有所了解、我如何看待它们以及我们目前处于什么位置。谢谢。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":153026996,"gmtCreate":1624988078315,"gmtModify":1703849645134,"author":{"id":"3458873772795444","authorId":"3458873772795444","name":"谋远","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3458873772795444","authorIdStr":"3458873772795444"},"htmlText":"看來僅僅用債務率衡量泡沫的程度是不夠的，因爲在全球低利率的情況下，債務能維持的時間會更久，這也會爲新增長贏得空間。","listText":"看來僅僅用債務率衡量泡沫的程度是不夠的，因爲在全球低利率的情況下，債務能維持的時間會更久，這也會爲新增長贏得空間。","text":"看來僅僅用債務率衡量泡沫的程度是不夠的，因爲在全球低利率的情況下，債務能維持的時間會更久，這也會爲新增長贏得空間。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153026996","repostId":1186578125,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":150545637,"gmtCreate":1624923043529,"gmtModify":1703847836204,"author":{"id":"3566969517736877","authorId":"3566969517736877","name":"EricBong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fde094766f7e452651736b62882d9cc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566969517736877","authorIdStr":"3566969517736877"},"htmlText":"Okoklah","listText":"Okoklah","text":"Okoklah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150545637","repostId":1186578125,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":150596171,"gmtCreate":1624920269993,"gmtModify":1703847734968,"author":{"id":"3581567152678426","authorId":"3581567152678426","name":"Daphnez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24c3ea3a9bb05be92b9c9f4f6f844e6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581567152678426","authorIdStr":"3581567152678426"},"htmlText":"和泡沫共舞","listText":"和泡沫共舞","text":"和泡沫共舞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150596171","repostId":1186578125,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":150504062,"gmtCreate":1624919874056,"gmtModify":1703847723759,"author":{"id":"3578172115401354","authorId":"3578172115401354","name":"VikiSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2130cfe283666b13556b33ac1d8d56e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578172115401354","authorIdStr":"3578172115401354"},"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150504062","repostId":1186578125,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":150244158,"gmtCreate":1624918406874,"gmtModify":1703847695546,"author":{"id":"3569639956293909","authorId":"3569639956293909","name":"dkpoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c363fe0c37055ba864124087c92ab292","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,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