To The Moon

Crude oil futures settled the week with a decline, as steady shipments of millions of barrels through the Strait of Hormuz tempered price momentum despite persistent ambiguity surrounding the trajectory of the conflict with Iran. The front-month Brent contract for November delivery slipped 0.5% to close at $88.10 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $83.40 a barrel, marking a weekly drop of approximately 4%.

Although Tehran's threats against shipping remain a concern, oil traffic transiting the strategic waterway appears to be gradually increasing. Market participants have been meticulously evaluating each diplomatic development to gauge potential disruptions to the world's most vital energy artery. Yet, the prospect of forging a durable agreement continues to look uncertain.

The United States has struck a resolute tone toward Iran in recent days, with President Trump signaling he has no intention of lifting the maritime blockade on Iranian ports—a key demand from Tehran. Reports suggest that the U.S. administration is not inclined to reinstate the terms of the June ceasefire with Tehran, further eroding market confidence in a potential revenue-sharing accord between Iran and Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz.

That said, the economic measures imposed by Washington on Tehran and its trading partners have thus far proven less severe than market participants had initially anticipated. In a post on X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that he had engaged in "creative discussions" with Qatar's Prime Minister in Tehran, adding that "getting diplomacy back on track is not impossible." He cautioned, however, that progress would hinge on whether the United States grasps a fundamental reality: "pressure does not work."