Copper: LME copper rose 3.99% overnight to $12,673.5 per ton; the main Shanghai copper contract increased 1.85% to 99,220 yuan per ton; the domestic spot import of refined copper remained at a loss. On the macroeconomic front, the Fed meeting minutes indicated that most participants believed that if inflation declines gradually as expected, further interest rate cuts may be appropriate; most participants supported a rate cut in December, with supporters generally citing increased downside risks to employment in recent months; most participants viewed rate cuts as helpful in preventing labor market deterioration, while some officials pointed out risks of rising inflation. Domestically, the recent密集出台 policies have helped boost market confidence. Inventory-wise, LME stocks fell by 5,100 tons to 149,475 tons; Comex inventories increased by 2,177 tons to 445,180 tons; SHFE copper warrants rose by 5,860 tons to 71,738 tons, while BC copper warrants held steady at 1,053 tons. On the demand side, as copper prices climbed again, downstream companies turned cautious in their procurement, with transactions primarily driven by rigid demand. The influence of the precious metals market weakened overnight, and copper prices also recovered driven by domestic stimulus policies. However, with two trading sessions remaining in overseas markets during the New Year holiday, investors are advised to trade cautiously.
Nickel & Stainless Steel: LME nickel surged 6.47% overnight to $16,780 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose 3.64% to 134,400 yuan per ton. Regarding inventories, LME stocks remained at 255,186 tons, and SHFE warrants decreased by 712 tons to 37,798 tons. Looking at spreads, the LME 0-3 month spread stayed negative; the import nickel spread held at 400 yuan/ton. On the news front, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the nickel ore production target in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget might be approximately 250 million tons, a significant drop from the 379 million tons target in the 2025 RKAB; APNI disclosed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the formula for calculating the benchmark price of nickel commodities in early 2026, with one key focus being that the government will begin pricing associated minerals (such as cobalt) as independent commodities and levy royalties on them. According to Mysteel research, the approved RKAB nickel ore quotas for 2026 will officially take effect at midnight on January 1, 2026. During the RKAB implementation process, it is necessary to ensure that IUP holders have completed the 2025 production realization report and uploaded the 2025 year-end inventory measurement report provided by surveyors, which serves as a reference for product inventory availability at the end of 2025; this inventory can be carried forward to 2026. Fundamentally, domestic nickel ore prices and premiums operated largely steadily. Weekly nickel iron transaction prices increased, with shrinking stainless steel supply and strengthening prices accelerating inventory drawdowns. Raw material prices were stronger than finished products, theoretical profits for nickel sulfate turned negative, prices for nickel, cobalt, and lithium all strengthened, demand weakened, and end-users faced cost pressures. For primary nickel, domestic social inventories saw a slight drawdown last week, while LME inventories accumulated. Boosted by news, stocks and commodities resonated, driving nickel prices higher, but the actual implementation remains uncertain; market sentiment warrants close attention.
Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy: Alumina oscillated with a stronger bias overnight; the AO2602 contract closed at 2,752 yuan per ton, up 0.47%, with open interest decreasing by 1,169 lots to 403,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum also oscillated stronger; the AL2602 contract closed at 22,615 yuan per ton, up 0.87%, with open interest down 979 lots to 267,000 lots. Aluminum alloy traded with strength; the main AD2603 contract closed at 21,510 yuan per ton, up 0.14%, with open interest increasing by 231 lots to 16,097 lots. On the spot side, the SMM alumina price retreated to 2,701 yuan per ton. The spot discount for aluminum ingots widened to 200 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 offers fell to 22,090 yuan/ton, at an 80 yuan/ton discount to Wuxi A00. Aluminum billet processing fees held steady in most regions, while Xinjiang, Nanchang, Guangdong, and Wuxi saw increases of 70-90 yuan/ton. Processing fees for aluminum rod 1A60 series and 6/8 series remained stable, while low-carbon aluminum rod fees decreased by 332 yuan/ton. Alumina plants maintain high ore reserves, leading to low short-term溢价 procurement sentiment. Several Q1 long-term ore contract prices saw significant reductions, further pressing down alumina costs. As long-term contracts with electrolytic aluminum plants are finalized, the likelihood of substantial short-term production cuts is low, making it difficult for alumina to escape downward pressure, with spot prices continuing to converge towards futures. Macro sentiment remains positive. The Xinjiang shipment issue has been resolved, with backlogged goods集中到港 within the week, gradually increasing future inventory accumulation pressure for aluminum ingots. Coupled with downstream production cuts nearing the New Year and year-end fund repatriation needs, spot discounts remain under pressure. Short-term divergence between macro and micro factors is restraining further upside momentum in near-month contracts.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: On the 30th, industrial silicon traded with strength; the main 2605 contract closed at 8,915 yuan perton, up 1.08% intraday, with open interest decreasing by 4,845 lots to 216,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,603 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous session. The price for the lowest deliverable grade #421 held steady at 8,850 yuan/ton, with the spot premium turning to a 65 yuan/ton discount. Polysilicon traded weaker; the main 2605 contract closed at 57,890 yuan/ton, down 0.19% intraday, with open interest decreasing by 12,300 lots to 83,000 lots. The Baichuan polysilicon N-type recycled silicon material price increased to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price for the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount to the main contract widening to 5,390 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon plants in Southwest China have reduced production again, while Northwest China shows mixed adjustments with expectations of environmental protection-related cuts ahead. Silicon plants face limited overall inventory pressure due to high-level hedging. Short-term industrial silicon continues its upward trend driven by cost and production cut logic. Battery wafer production cuts and price hikes have resurfaced due to soaring silver prices, and silicon wafer manufacturers have significantly raised their offers. The price increase effect in the crystalline silicon segment is poor, with news of production cuts at several polysilicon plants in January. As market feedback on stockpiling weakens, discussions refocus on profit distribution within the industry chain and downstream production cut pressures, coupled with new warrant registrations easing pressure, the polysilicon futures market is gradually correcting. Risks from capital flow disruptions on the futures market remain; investors are advised to be cautious about shorting and to focus on the implementation of polysilicon plant production cuts.
Lithium Carbonate: Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract fell 3.77% to 121,580 yuan/ton. Regarding spot prices, the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate held at 118,000 yuan/ton, the average industrial-grade price remained at 115,000 yuan/ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particle) held at 110,000 yuan/ton. For warrants, warrant inventory increased by 1,300 tons yesterday to 19,491 tons. On the supply side, weekly production increased by 116 tons week-on-week to 22,161 tons. Among these, spodumene-based production rose by 60 tons to 13,864 tons, lepidolite-based output increased by 40 tons to 2,866 tons, salt lake-based production decreased by 20 tons to 3,075 tons, and recycled material-based production increased by 36 tons to 2,356 tons. On the demand side, weekly ternary material production decreased by 119 tons to 17,726 tons, with inventories down 89 tons to 18,002 tons. Weekly lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production fell by 1,309 tons to 90,752 tons, with inventories decreasing by 1,386 tons to 100,885 tons. Regarding overall inventory, weekly stocks fell by 652 tons to 109,773 tons. Within this, downstream inventories decreased by 1,593 tons to 39,892 tons, inventories in other segments increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons, and upstream inventories decreased by 239 tons to 17,851 tons. Consultancy inventory data shows divergence, but against the backdrop of expected cathode plant maintenance in January, fundamentals are marginally weakening. Judging from inventory turnover, downstream restocking momentum may manifest during price declines; the key is to observe whether price transmissions to downstream sectors are smooth and whether strong demand can be verified. Additionally, holiday factors may amplify volatility through持仓 changes.
